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Within the year, domestic oil prices rose steadily thanks to the support of crude oil prices; however, as crude oil prices declined and the pandemic resurfaced in the country, oil prices began to fall. The traditional peak season for demand, \"Golden September and Silver October,\" is approaching – could oil prices start to rise again? We start by analyzing future oil price trends from the retail and wholesale perspectives. In terms of retail pricing: As of 24:00 on August 9, 2021, domestic refined oil prices had undergone 10 increases, 2 decreases, and 3 suspensions, for a total of 15 price adjustments. After accounting for these changes, the retail prices of domestic refined oil increased by 1,375 yuan per ton for gasoline and 1,325 yuan per ton for diesel. In terms of wholesale: During the year, the prices of diesel and gasoline sold in bulk followed the fluctuations in domestic refined oil pricing, showing an overall upward trend. Rising oil prices are driven mainly by the increase in crude oil prices. On the demand side, while gasoline demand increases due to more travel, there has been no significant improvement in diesel demand. As of August 9, 2021, the domestic wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel had risen by 1,881 yuan per ton and 867 yuan per ton respectively compared to the end of last year. The increase in wholesale gasoline prices far exceeds that of retail price adjustments, whereas the rise in wholesale diesel prices is less than the increase in retail prices. Judging from current market trends, gasoline prices have begun to decline significantly, but diesel prices remain strong. One of the main reasons for the decline in gasoline prices is the reduced demand resulting from travel restrictions caused by the pandemic ； On the other hand, the weak trend in crude oil prices is dampening investors’ sentiment. As for diesel, the main factor supporting stable diesel prices is the refining costs of refineries. According to statistics, as of August 5, 2021, the refining profit for domestic refineries operating in the main industry was 481.67 yuan per ton, while that for local refineries was 287.5 yuan per ton. Although refining profits are currently low, they have not yet reached this year’s lowest level. Another major reason for the continuous price increases in diesel from major and local refineries is the optimism regarding strong demand during the \"Golden September and Silver October\" period. For the future market, based on the current increases in wholesale prices and adjustments to retail prices, there is no room for further increases in gasoline prices, which have already begun to decline gradually. Diesel prices still have room to rise, but in the short term, the weak trend of crude oil is putting pressure on domestic diesel prices; if there is no sustained increase in crude oil prices, it will be difficult for domestic diesel prices to improve. Source: Alliance Petrochemicals