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On January 3, the U.S. military launched a large-scale military attack on Venezuela, resulting in significant uncertainty in Venezuela’s crude oil supply chain and triggering severe fluctuations in global energy and chemical markets. As an important global supplier of heavy crude oil, changes in the situation in Venezuela are affecting the entire industry chain, from crude oil extraction to the production of chemical products, through complex transmission mechanisms. This incident not only tests the market’s ability to respond promptly but will also have a profound impact on the global energy trade landscape and the long-term development of the chemical industry. Following the incident, market concerns focused on two main aspects: the immediate impact on the supply side and the factors affecting long-term capacity recovery. Venezuela currently exports around 800,000 to 900,000 barrels of crude oil per day, mainly to Asia and the Caribbean. Although Venezuela’s State Oil Company (PDVSA) claims that its main production facilities have not suffered severe damage, the extent of the damage to the key export hub of Port of La Guaira remains unclear. Previously, PDVSA’s refining facilities were already operating at reduced capacity due to aging infrastructure and a shortage of manpower; the four main refineries processed only 350,000 barrels per day on average. The damage to the ports further exacerbated the vulnerabilities of the oil industry. Venezuela has proven reserves of around 300 billion barrels of crude oil, primarily concentrated in the Orinoco heavy oil belt. In recent years, due to insufficient investment and technical limitations, the country’s crude oil production has dropped significantly from its peak of 3 million barrels per day, and substantial capital investment is required to restore it. If the current situation leads to further withdrawal of foreign investment, it will delay the development of heavy oil resources in the region. On the other hand, if the situation stabilizes quickly and attracts the return of international capital, international energy companies such as Chevron may accelerate the resumption of their investment projects in that country, which could lead to an expectation of capacity recovery in the medium to long term. Furthermore, the production and processing of heavy crude oil in Venezuela rely heavily on imported diluents; instability in the region could disrupt the supply of these diluents, leading to a decline in extraction efficiency and further widening the global shortage of heavy crude oil, thereby increasing pressure on the supply of chemical raw materials. The current international energy market is focused on the continuity of Venezuela’s oil supply; traders continue to weigh the risks of supply disruptions against expectations of industry recovery, which is driving up volatility in international oil prices. Global refining companies are generally facing the dual pressures of oil price fluctuations and raw material shortages, which leads to a significant increase in production costs. Refineries in Asia and Europe that rely heavily on heavy crude oil are hit the hardest; some of these companies may be forced to reduce production or even shut down, thereby affecting the stability of supply in the downstream chemical products market. The International Energy Agency (IEA) had previously lowered its global oil supply forecasts for 2026 due to sanctions on Russia and Venezuela; this escalation in the situation could lead to further adjustments in those forecasts. The global refining industry is accelerating its transformation toward integration and larger scale; heavy crude oil serves as an important raw material, and a shortage of it could disrupt the pace of transformation in certain regions. From the perspective of the chemical industry, fluctuations in Venezuela’s crude oil supply directly affect the availability of raw materials for refining, which in turn impacts the prices of refined products and petrochemical intermediates. Heavy crude oil can be processed to produce basic raw materials such as naphtha, which is a key intermediate for plastics, rubber, and other products; a stable supply of naphtha is essential for ensuring the smooth operation of downstream manufacturing industries. Currently, chemical companies around the world are closely monitoring the situation, and some have activated emergency plans to address these risks by using alternative raw materials and adjusting production processes. However, such process adjustments take time and increase costs, thereby reducing profit margins. Market analysis suggests that short-term volatility in the global energy market is likely to persist, with the restoration of the Port of La Guaira, the operation of its facilities, and developments in industrial cooperation being key factors that continue to influence the global landscape of chemical and energy security. This incident highlights the importance of diversifying raw material supplies in the refining, petrochemical, and chemical industries. In the future, global energy and chemical companies may accelerate the optimization of their supply chains, expand import channels, enhance their capacity to process alternative raw materials, and improve their resilience to geopolitical disruptions. Meanwhile, the global flow of chemical trade may face potential restructuring. The trans-Pacific heavy oil trade pattern that has developed over the past decade may need to be adjusted. Asian refining companies are urgently evaluating alternatives. As for alternative options in the Middle East, heavy crude oil from countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE could partially fill the gap, but differences in sulfur and metal content require process adjustments. In terms of adjustments within the Americas, oil sands crude and offshore crude from Brazil might see an increase in exports to Asia, but limitations in pipeline and port infrastructure mean that the increase will be limited.