The prosperity of China’s polysilicon industry has further declined

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The prosperity of China’s polysilicon industry continued to decline. December 7, 2012, China Nonferrous Metals Network. From January to October, China imported a total of 70,210 tons of polysilicon, representing a 26.16% increase on a year-on-year basis. The average import price was 26.16 dollars per kilogram, down 61.10% compared to the previous year. In October, China’s imports of polysilicon amounted to approximately 5,714 tons, a decrease of 30.05% on a month-on-month basis and an increase of 25.15% on a year-on-year basis; this marked the end of four consecutive months of increasing imports. The average import price was 23.02 dollars per kilogram, down 2.69% on a month-on-month basis and 52.21% on a year-on-year basis, reaching a bottom level. 　　Specifically, in October, China’s imports of polysilicon from Germany decreased significantly on a month-on-month basis, with import volumes reaching 1,823 tons. The average price, instead of falling, increased to 30.48 dollars per kilogram. From January to September, China imported approximately 17,870 tons of polysilicon from Germany, with an average price of around 31.69 US dollars per kilogram. 　　The industry believes that the significant month-on-month decline in China’s imports of polysilicon from Germany in October is related to the production cuts implemented by German company Wacker. According to its third-quarter report, as of the end of September, its production capacity had decreased by 20%. With the market performance in the second half of the year being weaker than that in the first half, there is a possibility that production restrictions will intensify further. Following the large volume of low-priced silicon materials shipped in the spot market in September, the average import price saw a slight rebound under the influence of high-price long-term orders from Chinese manufacturers. Due to the higher quality of its products compared to the market average, domestic long-term customers are forced to accept silicon materials at high prices and are reluctant to cancel orders easily. 　　Furthermore, China’s electronic-grade polysilicon is mainly imported from Germany, with an average price ranging from $50 per kilogram to $70 per kilogram, which raises the overall average import price. In October, China’s imports of polysilicon from the United States decreased on a month-on-month basis, with import volumes reaching 2,029 tons and the average price falling to $15.77 per kilogram. From January to October, China imported approximately 27,986 tons of polysilicon from the United States, with an average price of around 22.11 US dollars per kilogram. The quality of silicon materials in the United States has always been relatively lower among the three main importing countries. Meanwhile, the low-cost granular materials supplied by the major supplier REC contribute to driving down overall prices. According to REC’s financial reports, the cash cost of its granular material is only around $12 per kilogram. In October, China’s imports of polysilicon from South Korea decreased on a month-on-month basis, with import volumes reaching 1,326 tons and the average price dropping to $21.12 per kilogram. From January to October, China imported approximately 16,485 tons of polysilicon from South Korea, at an average price of around 26.11 dollars per kilogram. Based on the information disclosed in OCI’s third-quarter report for South Korea, the commissioning of production capacity equivalent to approximately 46,000 tons of silicon has been delayed, and the plant’s technical upgrades are set to add another 10,000 tons of capacity, which has an impact on current production levels. 　　According to calculations by SolarZoom’s market analysis center, the global photovoltaic installation capacity this year is estimated to be around 31 gigawatts to 35 gigawatts, while in the first half of this year, approximately 22 gigawatts to 24 gigawatts worth of various photovoltaic components were produced globally. In the first half of this year alone, China’s exports of solar modules reached 14 gigawatts, and the supply-demand imbalance intensified further in the second half of the year. The current price already reflects the true state of the market. 　　As for domestic silicon material manufacturers, those that are still in production have to limit or even halve their output, forcing them to accumulate large amounts of silicon material in stock. Under the dumping of low-cost silicon materials from countries such as the United States and South Korea, in order to maintain their cash flow, the prices of silicon materials offered by domestic leading companies have dropped to 110 yuan per kilogram. The prices of secondary solar silicon materials supplied by some lower-tier companies have even fallen below 100 yuan per kilogram. 　　Currently, some aggressive traders and producers are strategically buying up existing silicon materials at lower prices step by step. As the Ministry of Commerce launches a traceability-based \"double anti\" investigation on polysilicon, it is expected that even if \"double anti\" measures are imposed on imported polysilicon in the future, the rebound in its prices will be limited. 　　As the trade dispute over photovoltaic products between China and the EU intensifies, the outcomes of these anti-dumping measures will directly affect the prices of silicon materials and solar panels. In the future, the price structures in both the silicon material market and the photovoltaic market are likely to become even more complex. http://www.cnmn.com.cn/ShowNews1.aspx?id=257353