Is investment in the methanol project overheated?

Methanol overheating is a fact; the next step is industry consolidation

The overheating of methanol has become an undeniable fact. Now that this issue is recognized, corresponding solutions naturally exist. **Adjustments to industrial policies could play a significant role in alleviating this problem

I can tell you with certainty that the domestic market is already saturated, but if you have the skills, you can go abroad and make money from foreigners! ! !

To protect limited resources, developed countries have imposed restrictions on new methanol production facilities. Why are new facilities approved one after another in our country? What will we be able to leave for future generations in the near future? The fierce competition resulting from a saturated Chinese market ultimately benefits the developed countries.

Although we already have a considerable amount of methanol, this is due to our country’s conditions – we are rich in coal but short of oil and natural gas. The oil crises of recent years are well-known to all. However, the technology for converting coal directly into oil has not yet been fully developed. Although the F-T synthesis method existed earlier, it has fallen out of favor due to high energy consumption and poor product selectivity. It is understandable that methanol, as an alternative to oil, has become increasingly popular in recent times. As for the dimethyl ether production process, with the maturity of the MTO process, I believe the market for methanol will not decline but will continue to grow.

1. Due to the severe shortage of ethylene and propylene, over the next 10–15 years, 10–20 million-ton-scale MTO/MTP plants will come online in China, consuming 10–15 million tons of methanol per year. As oil resources become depleted, over the next 10 to 15 years, international crude oil prices could rise to $300 per barrel. Could coal prices climb to 2,000 yuan per ton? Our country is a major country in terms of coal reserves and consumption. The production of dimethyl ether from methanol consumes a large amount of methanol, and it is only a matter of time before dimethyl ether is also turned into liquefied gas; therefore, a consumption of 10 million tons of methanol in this context can be considered a conservative estimate. 3. With the continuous surge in oil prices and the widespread use of passenger cars, the problem of soaring and scarce gasoline and diesel prices in the country will only become more severe, and the industrialization of coal-to-oil production is likely to gain momentum. Over the next 10 to 15 years, it is possible to build 5 to 10 medium-scale oil production plants with a capacity of 3 million tons each in China; the amount of methanol required for this purpose is likely to exceed 10 million tons. 4. Methanol-blended gasoline will gradually become more widespread in China; currently, it’s unlikely to find gasoline that does not contain methanol in our gas station storage tanks. Over the next 10 to 15 years, the country will consume at least 20 million tons of methanol per year in this area. Based on these rough estimates, the annual domestic consumption of methanol could exceed 50 million tons over the next 10 to 15 years.

The friend on the 7th floor has already outlined the ideas and directions for further developing methanol products downstream. Let me correct this small mistake of yours here. There might be a misunderstanding regarding the di3 point you mentioned. The so-called coal-to-oil projects refer to the production of oil products from coal through direct or indirect liquefaction, without the need for a methanol production process. If it is reproduced through methanol, it is called MTG technology. Currently, a project in Jincheng City, Shanxi Province, ** involves the production of 300,000 tons of methanol along with 100,000 tons of MTG gasoline. The above are just my minor additions; I hope they will be helpful to the members of the forum. Furthermore, your assessment of the maturity of technologies such as MTO/MTP might be somewhat ahead of the curve, as there is no large-scale application of them in the world at present. At the same time, directly adding methanol to gasoline requires **the establishment of relevant standards before it can be implemented in practice**