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Asian methanol spot prices and market trend analysis

2007-12-07View Original

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Market quotes as of November 27: CFR main Chinese ports at $450–$480 per ton, down $20 from last week’s levels; CFR Taiwan is $590–600 per ton, remaining roughly unchanged from last week’s level ; CFR South Korea: $590–610 per ton, roughly unchanged from last week’s level ; CFR Southeast Asia is $580–600 per ton, up by $5–10 compared to last week’s price level. Asian methanol prices have seen a slight pause after several weeks of rising prices. Overall, it seems to be on an upward trend, but the extent of that increase may depend on the Asian contract prices announced by Methanex for December. Therefore, most Asian buyers and sellers wait for this price before concluding new deals. Trading in the spot market remains low, supply is tight, and sellers in most regions and the Middle East have limited inventory. The only available quote is from a Chinese seller. However, some acetic acid manufacturers say that if the current price trend continues, they may be forced to reduce their production levels in the short term. In Southeast Asia, the market is even quieter; buyers and sellers are reluctant to purchase at high prices, although a few small buyers have inquired about prices. The overall market remains strong due to expectations of an APCP increase. Methanol prices in China have dropped sharply, due to strong opposition from downstream users to price increases and improved local supply as export activities have slowed down. The shutdown of Nanjing Celanese’s 600,000-ton-per-year acetic acid plant has also freed up some supply. The buyer and seller suggest that prices might rebound after the Asian contract price is announced. Prices in South China have dropped sharply, despite the closure of factories in Hainan, as sellers in Central China are selling to South China at low prices. Several sellers said that downstream departments find it difficult to accept high methanol prices. Industries such as DME have reduced their operating rates to the lowest level due to rising methanol costs. Chinese sellers lowered their export quotes in the first half of this week following falling spot prices in the United States and Europe. The price is $570–580 per ton (FOB China).

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