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Publisher of the current status and existing problems of the Russian petrochemical industry: shaoys release time: 2007-9-30 7:24:43 Number of views: 559 Favorites----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Browse font settings: - 11pt + 10pt 12pt 14pt 16pt 1. Current status of Russian petrochemical industry production The petrochemical industry is the leading industry in the Russian chemical industry. The production of chemical products using oil and natural gas as raw materials accounts for 70-80% of the entire chemical industry production. According to Russia's current classification standards, most deeply processed petrochemical products, such as plastics, synthetic resins and their products, are not considered petrochemical products. In 2006, Russia's chemical and petrochemical industry contributed 5.4% to Russia's industrial production and 10.4% to the processing industry. The added value of the industry accounted for 1.6% of Russia's GDP. There are nearly 800 large and medium-sized industrial enterprises in the industry, more than 100 scientific research and experimental design units, and 740,000 employees in the industry. Existing production capacity of Russia's main petrochemical products (2006) Production load (10,000 tons) (%) Polyethylene 110 100 Polypropylene 31 98 Polyvinyl chloride 64 90 Polystyrene 31 60 (data source: Institute of World Economics and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences) Commodity structure of Russia's chemical industry in 2006 (%) Petrochemical industry 28.5 Chemical industry 71.5 Synthetic dyes 0.5 Chemical reagents and high-purity substances 0.4 Daily chemicals 3.4 Paint and pigment industry 3.4 Plastic products 13.1 Chemical fibers 2.2 Plastics and synthetic resins 8.8 Basic chemistry 33.9 Other products 5.8 (Data source: Russian Ministry of Industry and Energy) The proportion of two Russian petrochemical products in the world's total production in 2006 (%) Ethylene Ammonia Ethylene Ammonia Canada... 3.3 United States 21.6 7.1 Russia 2.1 9.0 China 7.6 29.1 Germany... 2.1 Japan 7.8 0.9 South Korea 6.1... Taiwan 2.9... Others * * and regions 47 51.9 Average production cost composition of Russian petrochemical products in 2005 (%) Raw materials 51.3 Fuel 3.1 Power 9.6 Salary 12.9 Unified social tax 3.3 Depreciation 3.1 Other costs 16.7 Russian petrochemical product production capacity structure (equipment commissioning time) Less than 10 years 10-20 years More than 20 years (% of total production capacity) Polyethylene 24 19 57 Polypropylene 57 10 33 Polystyrene and styrene copolymer 6 1 93 Polyvinyl chloride 19 39 42 Chemical fiber 0.2 11 89 Synthetic rubber 8 10 82 Car tires 12 8 80 Methanol 23 45 32 In 2005, the fixed asset investment in Russia's chemical and petrochemical industry was US$1.9 billion, foreign investment was US$1.6 billion, and investment in scientific research and experimental design was approximately US$200 million. It is estimated that fixed asset investment will reach US$2.3 billion in 2006, and foreign investment will still be US$1.6 billion. Between 1998 and 2005, * * Budgetary capital investment accounts for 5-10% of industry investment. 2. Trade situation of Russian chemical products The Russian chemical industry, especially the petrochemical industry, has been exporting most of its products, and the export value of industry products accounts for nearly 5% of Russia’s total foreign trade export value. Although Russian chemical products only account for a little more than 1% of the global market share, its petrochemical products account for 15% of the global market for similar products. Russia's exports of chemical and petrochemical products have grown at a rapid rate for many years. In recent years, market demand at home and abroad has increased rapidly, and the demand for imported products in Russia's domestic chemical product market has also grown rapidly. The import and export volumes in 2006 were 349% and 295% of those in 1998, respectively. Changes in the import and export of Russian chemical and petrochemical products (unit: billion US dollars) Imports and exports in 1998 27.5 42.7 1999 20.6 41.2 2000 27.4 51.7 2001 36.0 55.9 2002 38.8 50.1 2003 47.1 68.2 2004 64.7 98.8 2005 81.7 112.9 2006 96 126 Petrochemical products accounted for about 30% of Russia's chemical product exports, and the export value was second only to chemical fertilizers. Export structure of Russian chemical and petrochemical products in 2005 (%) Styrene 2.8 Methanol 2.2 Caprolactam 3.1 Tires 3.7 Ammonia 5.3 Synthetic rubber 9.2 Plastics and synthetic resins 5.3 Fertilizers 34.3 Other products 34.1 Deeply processed petrochemical products account for a large proportion of Russia's imports. Among them, the imports of chemical fibers, plastics, synthetic resins and their products, tires and industrial rubber products alone account for more than 56% of Russia's total chemical product imports. Import structure of chemical and petrochemical products in Russia in 2005 (%) Synthetic detergents 1.3 Chemical fibers 4.1 Tires 6.8 Industrial rubber products 3.4 Plant protection preparations 2.2 Paints and pigments 4.9 Plastics and synthetic resins 18.6 Plastic products 23.4 Others 35.3 It can be seen from the import and export structure of chemical products that Russia’s exports are mostly primary products, while imports are mainly deep-processed products. For example, the import dependence of chemical fibers, fine chemical products and pharmaceuticals reaches 60-80%, and the export of some types of petrochemical primary products accounts for 70-80% of domestic production. 3. Problems and Development Strategies Facing the Russian Chemical Industry According to the analysis of the Russian Ministry of Industry and Energy, the technology and process level of relevant Russian enterprises are comparable to those of foreign advanced countries. * * The comparison gap is 15 to 20 years. Lack of domestic deep processing capabilities and * * In the absence of adequate support for related consumption areas, if Central Asia and the Middle East * * Natural gas production has been developed and competitiveness has been strengthened. There may be difficulties in selling Russian chemical products in the future. In the process of marketization, the Russian chemical industry faces many problems, such as unreasonable industrial structure, lack of competitiveness with similar foreign products, aging equipment, backward technology, lack of long-term development plans and goals, insufficient group advantages, * * problems such as insufficient regulation and policy guidance. In addition, factors such as aging infrastructure, unstable transportation systems, rising labor costs and various expenses, and unstable supply of oil and gas raw materials will all have a negative impact on future competitiveness. In March 2007, relevant Russian departments drafted a "Russian Federation Chemical and Petrochemical Industry Development Strategy to 2015." This strategic plan significantly increases the production capacity of Russian chemical products, improves product quality and industrial structure, reduces dependence on imports, and enables the new production capacity to fully meet domestic market demand. In 2005, Russia's chemical and petrochemical industries consumed 3.4% of Russia's natural gas and 2.4% of its oil. According to the chemical industry development strategy, by 2015, these two figures will increase to 4.6% and 4.1% respectively. According to the requirements of the development strategy of the chemical and petrochemical industry, Russia's demand for hydrocarbon raw materials will increase by at least 70% by 2015 compared with 2005, mainly increasing the demand for light hydrocarbons, of which the demand for ethane will increase by 3.7 times, so that its proportion in the petrochemical raw material structure will increase from the current 4.1% to 11%. By 2015, the Russian chemical industry's demand for gasoline distillates and straight-run gasoline will increase by 80%, and the demand for natural gas will increase from 19.8 billion cubic meters in 2005 to 29.5 billion cubic meters. Forecast of demand for hydrocarbon raw materials by the Russian petrochemical industry (unit: 10,000 tons) 2005-2015 growth (%) (realistic scenario) Gasoline fraction 714 1266 77 Straight run 655 1180 80 Among them: for aromatization 373 753 102 Pyrolysis 282 427 51 Liquefied hydrocarbon gas 322 526 63 Among them: Propane 14.4 49.4 243 Propane-propylene 57.9 84.5 46 Propane-butane 30.7 63.8 108 Standard butane 134 178 32 Isobutane 55.5 105 89 Hydrocarbon liquefied gas 19.3 46.1 139 Isopentane 46.8 109.4 134 Light hydrocarbon family (pyrolysis) 68.4 91.1 33 Ethane 29.7 140.3 372 Total 1181 2133 81 Natural gas (100 million cubic meters) 198 295 49 (Data source: Russian Ministry of Industry and Energy) The lack of long-term and reasonable industrial development strategies and guiding policies and the abnormal development of the resource-based economy have prevented Russia's abundant petroleum resources and scientific and technological potential from being effectively utilized, and the production development and technological progress of the petroleum processing industry and petrochemical industry have been affected. Since 1990, Russian oil processing and production of major petroleum products have dropped by nearly 50%. At present, Russia's crude oil processing rate is 70%, its production capacity utilization rate is 78%, and the loss of fixed assets has reached 80%. The main petroleum products are of low quality and lack competitiveness. Russia can extract 16% of gasoline and 30% of heavy oil from each ton of oil. The cost of oil extraction is 3 to 4 times that of the Gulf region and twice that of Northern Europe. The average crude oil recovery rate is 0.35-0.5. Russia’s crude oil processing volume only accounts for 4.39% of the world’s, and the crude oil processing capacity of all its large oil companies is * * Below extraction, Yukos' refining capacity is less than 10% of its crude oil production. In comparison, the refining capabilities of the world's oil giants, such as Shell, Exxon-Mobil, Chevron, BP and other multinational oil companies, are * * Exceeding its mining volume, more than double the amount. developed in the west * * , due to environmental protection requirements, petroleum products are increasingly being replaced by natural gas, and the EU's imports of heavy oil will decrease year by year in the next few years. Judging from industry development trends throughout the world, with the continuous advancement of biofuels and engine fuel extraction technology from natural gas, petroleum products will be more used to manufacture lubricants and other petrochemical products, so the focus of utilization of petroleum products will shift to the petrochemical industry. The Russian energy strategy states that Russia's crude oil processing rate must reach 75% by 2010 and 85% by 2020. The Russian Ministry of Industry and Energy plans to rely on extrabudgetary funds to solve investment problems in the future.: 60% relies on the company's own funds, and the remaining 40% is solved by attracting investment. "Сибур" company controlled by Russia's "Gasprom" is Russia's largest petrochemical enterprise group, producing more than 100 kinds of petrochemical products. Other Russian companies not only have fewer product varieties and low processing levels, but also mainly rely on foreign markets. Judging from the current situation, Russia's large oil and gas companies have not clearly expressed their willingness to give up expanding resource exports or decide to prioritize the development of the petrochemical industry. For example, the development plan formulated by Gazprom by 2030 stipulates that the company will double its natural gas exports to Europe and expand its natural gas exports to the Asia-Pacific region. * * Exports to the United States increased from 155 billion cubic meters per year to 3100 to 375 billion cubic meters. Small and medium-sized enterprises are lacking * * Policy support, and lack of financial investment in scientific research and experimental design work, make development face greater difficulties. Therefore, it is very difficult for Russia to fully realize the strategic goals of industry development. Russian industry experts have put forward some development suggestions in this regard, such as modernizing the refinery and making full use of the hydrocarbon gas produced during oil refining. This can increase the production of hydrocarbons C3-C4 by 1.5 million tons per year, partially solving the problem of insufficient raw materials. They emphasized that the petrochemical industry, the oil refining industry and the natural gas industry will be more closely linked in the future, and it is necessary to accelerate economic integration and establish a relatively complete vertically integrated industrial chain to obtain maximum added value and competitiveness and nip problems in the bud. There are different opinions within Russia on how to support the development of the chemical and petrochemical industries. Some people insist that * * The development of this industry should be supported with funds and preferential policies. However, some people, such as the Russian Ministry of Energy, believe that the current situation of the Russian chemical industry is basically normal and there is no need to * * special support or intervention. The profit rate of the Russian chemical industry is still far lower than that of the mining and refining industries. At this stage, it is indeed difficult for businessmen to invest huge sums of money in a field with profit risks. (First sub-site: Sub-station of the Economic and Commercial Counselor of the Russian Federation)