China will become a major country in renewable energy within three years

For future generations, we should consider environmental protection issues.

The goal is good, but it might be difficult to achieve. Given the current share of renewable energy, it is difficult for them to compete with conventional energy sources without supportive policies such as **subsidies. A favorable factor at present is the ability to make full use of the CDM mechanism to secure some funding.

An Investigation and Analysis of the Energy Situation in the Modern World 　　　 I. Current Status and Characteristics of Global Energy Consumption 　　1. Driven by economic development and population growth, global consumption of primary energy continues to rise 　　As the scale of the world economy expands, global energy consumption keeps increasing. The world’s GDP in 1990 was 26.5 trillion dollars (at 1995 constant prices), and it reached 34.3 trillion dollars by 2000, with an average annual growth rate of 2.7%. According to the BP Energy Statistics 2004, world primary energy consumption was only 5.73 billion tons of oil equivalent in 1973, rising to 9.74 billion tons of oil equivalent by 2003. Over the past 30 years, global energy consumption has grown at an average annual rate of around 1.8%. 　　2. World energy consumption follows different patterns of growth, with the growth rate in developed regions being significantly lower than that in developing regions. Over the past 30 years, energy consumption has increased in six major regions: North America, Central and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific. However, the growth rate in the economically, technologically, and socially more advanced regions of North America and Europe has been very slow, and their share of global energy consumption has declined over the years. In North America, this share dropped from 35.1% in 1973 to 28.0% in 2003, while in Europe it fell from 42.8% in 1973 to 29.9% in 2003. The share of energy consumption by OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) member countries in the world declined from 68.0% in 1973 to 55.4% in 2003. The main reason is that the economically developed countries have entered a post-industrial stage, with their economies shifting toward industrial structures that feature low energy consumption and high productivity; the manufacturing sectors with high energy demands are gradually transitioning to developing countries** ； Second, developed countries **attach great importance to energy conservation and improving energy efficiency. 　　3. The global energy consumption structure is moving toward higher quality, but regional differences remain significant. Since the Industrial Revolution in the 1870s, consumption of fossil fuels has increased sharply. In the early days, coal was the primary source of energy. After entering the 20th century, and especially since World War II, production and consumption of oil and natural gas continued to rise. Oil surpassed coal for the first time in the 1960s, becoming the dominant source of primary energy. Although the world experienced two oil crises in the 1970s, world oil consumption showed no sign of declining. Thereafter, the share of oil and coal declined slowly, while the share of natural gas increased. At the same time, other forms of new energy such as nuclear energy, wind energy, hydroelectric power, and geothermal energy have been gradually developed and utilized, resulting in an energy structure that is currently dominated by fossil fuels, alongside renewable energy and new energy sources. By the end of 2003, fossil fuels remained the primary energy source in the world, accounting for about 87.7% of the world’s primary energy supply. Of this, oil accounted for 37.3%, coal for 26.5%, and natural gas for 23.9%. Although non-fossil and renewable energy sources are growing rapidly, they still account for a relatively low proportion, around 12.3%. 　　Due to the region’s abundant oil and gas resources and extremely low extraction costs, around 97% of energy consumption in the Middle East comes from oil and natural gas – a proportion significantly higher than the world average, making it the highest in the world. In the Asia-Pacific region, countries such as China and India have abundant coal resources, and coal accounts for a relatively high proportion in their energy consumption structure. In China’s case, coal makes up around 68% of the total energy consumption; as a result, the proportion of oil and natural gas in the energy structure of this region is low (about 47%), which is significantly lower than the world average. In regions other than the Asia-Pacific, the share of oil and natural gas exceeds 60%. 　　4. The world still has relatively abundant energy resources, but pressures on energy trade and transportation are increasing. According to BP’s World Energy Statistics 2004, as of the end of 2003, the world’s proven recoverable oil reserves amounted to 156.58 billion tons. Of this amount, the Middle East accounted for 63.3%, North America for 5.5%, Central and South America for 8.9%, Europe for 9.2%, Africa for 8.9%, and the Asia-Pacific region for 4.2%. World oil production in 2003 was 3.697 billion tons, an increase of 3.8% compared to the previous year. By comparing oil production and consumption in various regions, it can be seen that the Middle East needs to export around 880 million tons of oil. Africa and Central and South America also have higher oil production than consumption, while Asia-Pacific, North America, and Europe have deficits of 670 million tons, 420 million tons, and 120 million tons respectively. 　　There is also a huge imbalance in the distribution of coal resources. By the end of 2003, the world’s remaining recoverable coal reserves amounted to 984.45 billion tons, with a reserve-to-production ratio of 192 years. Europe, North America, and the Asia-Pacific region are the main areas where coal is found, with these three regions accounting for around 92% of the world’s total coal reserves. During the same period, the remaining recoverable reserves of natural gas were 175.78 trillion cubic meters, with a reserve-to-production ratio of 67. The Middle East and Europe are the regions with the richest natural gas resources in the world, accounting for 75.5% of the global total, while the share of other regions is only 5% to 7% each. As energy resources become relatively depleted in some parts of the world, energy trade between various regions of the world will increase further, and the demand for energy transportation will rise as well. Issues such as energy storage and transportation facilities and energy supply security will receive increasing attention. 　　II. Trends in Global Energy Supply and Consumption According to the latest projections by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), as the world’s economy and society continue to develop, global energy demand will keep rising in the future. It is estimated that world energy demand will reach 10.599 billion tons of oil equivalent in 2010, 12.889 billion tons of oil equivalent in 2020, and 13.650 billion tons of oil equivalent in 2025, with an average annual growth rate of 1.2%. The share of energy consumption in the two developed regions of Europe and North America in the world’s total will continue to decline, while regions such as Asia, the Middle East, and Central and South America will see growth. As the concentration of global energy reserves increases, competition for these resources will become more intense, and the methods used in such competition will also become more complex. The possibility of conflicts or ** arising from energy disputes still exists. 　　As global energy consumption increases, the emissions of environmental pollutants such as carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and dust particles are rising year by year, leading to increasingly severe environmental damage caused by fossil fuels and impacts on the global climate. According to EIA statistics, global carbon dioxide emissions were approximately 2.156 billion tons in 1990, rose to 2.390 billion tons in 2001, are expected to reach 2.772 billion tons by 2010, and will reach 3.712 billion tons by 2025, with an average annual growth rate of 1.85%. 　　In the face of these challenges, the future world’s energy supply and consumption will evolve toward diversification, cleanliness, efficiency, globalization, and marketization. 　　1. Diversification 　　The world’s energy structure has gone through phases dominated by firewood, coal, and oil, and is now shifting toward natural gas as the primary source. At the same time, hydroelectric, nuclear, wind, and solar energy are also being utilized more widely. Sustainable development, environmental protection, energy supply costs, and structural changes in available energy sources determine the pattern of global energy diversification. Natural gas consumption will increase steadily, and in some areas, gas-powered power plants are showing a tendency to replace coal-fired power plants. In the future, while developing conventional energy sources, new and renewable energy sources will receive attention. In the EU’s 2010 renewable energy development plan, wind power was to reach 40 million kilowatts, while hydroelectric power was to reach 105 million kilowatts. The **Energy White Paper** published by the UK in early 2003 outlined a strategy for new energy sources; by 2010, the share of renewable energy in the UK’s total electricity generation was to rise from the current 3% to 10%, and to reach 20% by 2020. 　　2. Cleanliness 　　With the advancement of new energy technologies worldwide and the increasing stringency of environmental standards, global energy use will move further in the direction of cleanliness in the future. Not only must the production process of energy be clean, but the energy industry must also continue to produce more and better clean energy sources, with the proportion of clean energy in total energy consumption gradually increasing. In the world’s energy consumption structure, the share of coal will decline from the current 26.47% to 21.72% by 2025, while natural gas’ share will rise from the current 23.94% to 28.40% by that time. The share of oil will remain between 37.60% and 37.90%. At the same time, the use of coal – which was once considered a \"dirty\" energy source – as well as traditional energy sources such as firewood, straw, and manure, will move toward more sustainable forms. Breakthroughs will be achieved in clean coal technologies (such as coal liquefaction, coal gasification, and technologies for removing sulfur and dust from coal), biogas technology, biodiesel technology, and similar ones, which will then be widely applied. Some countries, such as France, Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands, etc., have closed all of their domestic coal mines and turned to nuclear power; they consider nuclear power to be an efficient and clean source of energy that can help address greenhouse gas emissions. 　　3. Efficiency 　　There are significant differences in the efficiency of energy processing and consumption around the world, and there is great potential for improving energy utilization efficiency. With the advancement of new energy technologies worldwide, the efficiency of energy utilization in the future will continue to improve, and energy intensity will gradually decrease. For example, in constant 1997 U.S. dollars terms, the world’s energy intensity was 0.3541 tons of oil equivalent per thousand dollars in 1990; it dropped to 0.3121 tons of oil equivalent per thousand dollars by 2001. It is projected to be 0.2759 tons of oil equivalent per thousand dollars in 2010, and 0.2375 tons of oil equivalent per thousand dollars in 2025. 　　However, there are significant differences in energy intensity across different regions of the world. For example, in 2001, the energy intensity in the world’s developed countries was only 0.2109 tons of oil equivalent per thousand dollars. It is estimated that from 2001 to 2025, the energy intensity in developing countries will be 2.3 to 3.2 times that of developed countries, indicating substantial potential for energy savings worldwide. 　　4. Globalization 　　Due to the uneven distribution of world energy resources and demand, it has become increasingly difficult for various countries and regions around the world to rely on their own resources to meet domestic needs; they must turn to resources supplied by other countries or regions. As a result, global trade volume will continue to increase, with trade figures showing a steady upward trend. Taking oil trade as an example, the world’s oil trade volume increased from 1.22 billion tons in 1985 to 2.12 billion tons in 2000 and 2.18 billion tons in 2002, with an average annual growth rate of around 3.46%, which was higher than the world’s average annual oil consumption growth rate of 1.82% during the same period. In the foreseeable future, the world’s net oil imports will gradually increase, with an average annual growth rate of 2.96%. It is expected to reach 29.3 million barrels per day in 2010, 40.8 million barrels per day in 2020, and 48.5 million barrels per day in 2025. The globalization of global energy supply and consumption will accelerate, with the world’s major energy-producing and consuming countries actively participating in the globalization of energy supply and demand markets. 　　5. Marketization 　　Since marketization is the best means of achieving an optimal allocation and utilization of international energy resources, as the world economy develops and particularly as the pace of marketization reforms accelerates in various countries around the world, the degree of marketization in energy utilization is increasing. There will be less direct interference by countries in energy utilization, while the role of supporting energy markets will increase accordingly. This will be especially true in terms of improving energy-related laws and regulations in different countries and regions as well as creating a favorable environment for energy markets. Currently, countries rich in energy resources such as Russia, Kazakhstan, and Libya are continuously improving their energy investment policies and administrative measures. The degree of marketization and standardization in these energy production sectors is increasing, which facilitates investment by foreign investors. 　　III. Insights and Recommendations 　　1. Rely on technological progress and policy guidance to improve energy efficiency and pursue an efficient and cleaner path for energy utilization. 　　China has its own national conditions; the characteristics of its energy resource reserves and the structure of its economy mean that, in the foreseeable future, its energy structure, which is dominated by coal, is unlikely to change. The differences between China’s energy consumption pattern and that of the world will continue to exist. This requires that China’s energy policies, including those related to energy infrastructure development, energy exploration and production, energy utilization, environmental pollution control, and the use of overseas energy sources, be different from those of other countries. Given our large population, limited energy resources, especially high-quality ones, and the fact that we are in the process of industrialization, it is particularly important to rely on scientific and technological progress and policy guidance to improve energy efficiency, seek cleaner ways of using energy, and actively promote sustainable development in terms of energy, the environment, and the economy. 　　2. Actively draw on international best practices to establish and improve China’s energy security system. To ensure energy security, China should, on the one hand, learn from international best practices, improve energy-related laws and regulations, establish a system for collecting information on the energy market, as well as early-warning mechanisms, energy reserve systems, and emergency response mechanisms for energy crises. It should also actively promote diversity in energy supply in terms of source, type, trade, and transportation, thereby increasing the degree of marketization ； On the other hand, it is necessary to strengthen dialogue with major energy-producing and consuming countries, expand the energy supply network, and achieve globalization in energy production, transportation, procurement, trade, and utilization.

China still faces many difficulties in developing new energy sources; for example, the costs of photovoltaic power generation and biomass power generation are quite high! Therefore, the development of new energy relies on **support as well as technological progress, among other things!