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The introduction of renewable energy plans accelerates reshuffling in the energy market

2007-12-23View Original

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We must make a firm determination to change the current energy structure! ”**Chen Deming, vice minister of the National Development and Reform Commission, spoke in a firm tone, saying, “70% of China’s energy consumption relies on coal, and such an energy structure imposes significant pressures on China, including pressures related to greenhouse gas emissions.” ”   Chen Deming made these remarks at a press conference on the \"Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan for Renewable Energy\" (hereinafter referred to as the \"Plan\") held by the State Council Information Office not long ago. Following the release by the National Development and Reform Commission in April this year of the energy development plan for the 11th Five-Year Plan period, the policies and goals regarding the development of renewable energy over the next 15 years have now been formally established in writing by Chinese authorities.   Tackling serious ailments: The introduction of such a development plan is not an abrupt move. Faced with energy constraints and the impending era of renewable energy, China urgently needs to provide macro-level guidance to reform its ailing energy structure, promote the development and use of renewable energy, and ensure sustained rapid economic growth.   According to the Plan, in the coming period, the focus of renewable energy development in China will be on hydropower, biomass energy, wind power, and solar energy. At the same time, efforts will be made to promote the development and utilization of geothermal energy and ocean energy, as well as the use of renewable energy in rural areas. The total installed capacity of hydroelectric power across the country will reach 300 million kilowatts by 2020, while the total installed capacity for biomass power generation will be 30 million kilowatts, and that for wind power will also be 30 million kilowatts. The total investment required will be around 2 trillion yuan. Chen Deming said that a combination of **investment and diversified social investment will be used to address the funding issues for the development and utilization of renewable energy.   To vigorously develop renewable energy, according to Zhou Fengqi, former director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission and an expert in renewable energy, this is mainly based on six reasons: energy security and diversification of energy supply ; Reduce greenhouse gas emissions ; Reduce urban environmental pollution caused by fossil fuels ; Alternative nuclear energy ; The drive to create jobs and develop small and medium-sized enterprises ; Expand the export of technology and equipment.   According to the International Energy Agency’s projections, by 2020, renewable energy will account for 30% of global energy consumption. Currently, wind power accounts for 18% of Denmark’s total electricity supply. In Germany, wind power accounted for one-third of the world’s wind energy production in 2002. France plans for wind power to make up 25% of its total electricity generation by 2025 – and these figures represent only part of their overall strategies for sustainable energy. China, which ranks second in the world in terms of total energy consumption (around 10%), faces urgent shortages of oil, electricity, and water; as such, it is even more imperative to introduce corresponding development plans as well as policies and regulations.   Researcher Zhou Fengqi said that renewable energy, as natural resources that can be reused repeatedly in nature and are alternatives to primary energy sources such as coal and oil (such as wind energy, solar energy, small-scale hydroelectric power, ocean energy, geothermal energy, and bioenergy), started developing late in China; even abroad, it has only been around for about 20 years. In Europe and the United States, the development of renewable energy is promoted by providing subsidies to businesses, with reliance being placed largely on administrative measures; for example, the U.S. Energy Policy Act provides for a permanent 10% tax credit for businesses that invest in solar and geothermal power generation ; To improve the overall utilization of renewable energy sources such as solar energy, Germany has established a federal research fund of 60 million euros, of which **is responsible for covering 40 million euros ; Under the \"New Sunshine Plan,\" Japan allocates over 30 billion yen each year to the development of new energy technologies.   It is reported that the World Bank carried out a renewable energy development project in China in 1997; this project provided an initial loan of 100 million dollars, with the aim of building 5 wind power plants in 4 Chinese provinces and municipalities, totaling 200,000 kilowatts of capacity. However, due to the high cost of wind power generation and the grid’s inability to purchase it at high prices, three regions gave up their plans to build plants as they could not find buyers for the electricity produced. In the end, only Shanghai built a 20,000-kilowatt wind power plant with the help of loans. Thus, it made the World Bank clearly realize that for the development of renewable energy in China, what is even more crucial is **a change in mindset and policy support**. Thus, the World Bank’s office in China began working with the **National Development and Reform Commission in 2000 to assist China in making progress through policies and laws.   Two years ago, during the 10th National People’s Congress, the Renewable Energy Law was adopted, putting the development of renewable energy in China on a legal footing. This law specifies the responsibilities, rights, and obligations of governments, enterprises, and users in the development and utilization of renewable energy, covering aspects such as resource exploration, planning, research and development, industrial development, investment, pricing, and taxation. Nevertheless, Zhou Fengqi believes that the ambiguity in the relevant regulations has led to a chaotic situation as various industries rush in. “The relevant rules must be coordinated and arranged in a unified manner, pooling the efforts of all parties so that various central departments can work together as a cohesive force, rather than creating a situation akin to ‘nine dragons managing water’. ”Zhou Fengqi said.   Independent development Although China possesses huge potential in renewable energy resources, and some of the related technologies have already been commercialized, Zhou Fengqi points out that compared to developed countries, China lags far behind in terms of technology, scale, level, and development speed.   “China’s renewable energy industry infrastructure is weak; the cost of generating power using most renewable energy technologies is too high, and the market size is relatively small. ”Zhou was somewhat helpless, saying, “The lag in the manufacturing sector has severely hindered the localization and commercialization of renewable energy equipment production.” ”   Some observers even go so far as to assert that if this situation cannot be fundamentally reversed in the short term, China’s renewable energy industry could become a \"child who never grows up\".   It can be said that this concern is not unfounded, but it is overly pessimistic. Taking the solar energy industry as an example, in fact, over the past decade, China’s renewable energy sector has followed a path of independent development that is **different from that of the West. Without any policy support or tax incentives or other forms of subsidies, the development speed and scale of China’s solar energy industry remain the highest in the world. Data shows that currently, the area of solar thermal applications in China accounts for 76% of the global total, which is four times that of Europe and the United States combined, and this figure continues to rise at a rate of 20% to 30% per year. Today, China has become the world’s largest producer, user, and beneficiary of solar energy.   In addition to the rapid development of solar energy, the share of wind energy, small hydropower, geothermal energy, and other forms of energy in China’s energy mix is also increasing gradually. **An expert from the National Development and Reform Commission predicts that the growth rate of renewable energy from last year to 2020 will be much faster than in the past, especially for biodiesel, solar power generation, and wind power.   It is reported that China’s biofuels will also follow an independent path distinct from that of other countries in developing corn-based fuel ethanol. Currently, China’s bioethanol production is around 1.02 million tons, of which more than 800,000 tons are produced from corn, while the remaining 200,000 tons come from other cereal and tuber crops. For reasons related to food security, in the future non-food crops such as sweet sorghum, jatropha, and Xanthoceras sorbifolium, which grow on saline-alkali lands or barren hills, will be primarily used to produce biofuels.   From a long-term perspective, China will actively develop bio-liquid fuel technologies using cellulose biomass as raw material. It is estimated that by 2020, the consumption of biofuel ethanol in China will reach 10 million tons, and together with 2 million tons of biodiesel, this will result in a total substitution of approximately 10 million tons of refined oil products. Based on this, a national biofuel development plan was formulated in the Plan: by 2010, the National Development and Reform Commission would focus on establishing several fuel ethanol production projects using sweet sorghum as raw material in regions such as the Northeast and Shandong; several such projects using tuber crops as raw material would be set up in Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan and other places; and pilot projects for biodiesel production using oil-producing plants such as Jatropha, Melia toosendan, and Elaeocarpus will be launched in Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Hebei and other areas.   With the development of renewable energy in China, bio-diesel, fuel ethanol, and biomass power generation, which are still in their infancy, are set to become new favorites in the capital market. According to Everbright Securities’ projections, the Chinese wind power equipment market is set to experience explosive growth in the next three years, with wind turbine manufacturing likely to become a new source of growth for the industry. Following significant breakthroughs in conversion technologies, biodiesel has also attracted many VC firms and listed companies; some of the newly established energy technology companies are set to become targets for numerous investment institutions both domestically and internationally.   Currently, renewable energy consumption accounts for only 8% of the total energy consumption; the Plan aims to raise this figure to around 10% by 2010 and around 15% by 2020. Shi Dinghuan, a counselor to the State Council and president of the Chinese Society for Renewable Energy, said that over the next 30 to 50 years, renewable energy will play an increasingly important strategic role in China’s energy supply, accounting for 30% or even more.   “China’s energy policy has a significant impact on the world. ”Christopher Freven, a world-renowned energy expert and director of the World Watch Institute in the United States, said emphatically. Under this outlook, experts point out that China’s still-developing renewable energy industry is facing significant opportunities for growth, and a new ecological landscape will emerge as the entire energy market undergoes restructuring.

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