Has the coal-to-liquids peak turned around? ?

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This post was last edited by jordan569 on 2013-1-6 23:26 On August 10 this year, more than 10,000 construction and installation personnel from all over the country were engaged in intensive construction at the Shenhua coal-to-liquids project base located in Shangwan Town, Yijinhuoluo Banner, Inner Mongolia. 　　This is the edge area of ​​the Mu Us Desert, the second largest desert in Inner Mongolia. The world's first direct coal liquefaction pilot plant invested and constructed by Shenhua Group is located on this land with a radius of several kilometers. At present, the main works of the Shenhua coal-to-liquids project's self-owned power plant, oil storage area and coal liquefaction workshop unit have been completed. Two coal liquefaction reactors about 60 meters high stand in the center of the site. A large number of pipelines and corridors are connected to the upstream raw coal washing unit and coal hydrogen production unit, and the downstream large oil storage tanks. Other public works have been handed over to the owner for debugging, and the framework of the entire project has begun to take shape. 　　This coal liquefaction project, unprecedented in China, was planned in 2002. In November 2004, this project with a planned total investment of 60 billion yuan was officially launched. According to Shenhua Shenbian Oil's plan, after the first phase of the project is completed, the output will be 5 million tons, and the total output after the second phase will be 10 million tons. Ren Xiangkun, director of the Coal Liquefaction Research Center of Shenhua Group, said that Shenhua is currently building only a 1-million-ton commercial test project in Shangwan. By 2008, the world's first direct coal liquefaction plant will produce its first barrel of refined oil. 　　However, just when the Shenhua coal direct liquefaction project has entered the "nearest mile", due to sudden policy changes, this controversial energy model project has become subtle. 　　According to people familiar with the matter, the message delivered by the State Council at a recent meeting on the development of renewable energy was: to without * * Approval of illegal coal-to-liquids projects under construction, * * It will be stopped immediately. China has the technology to make coal-to-liquids, but "coal-to-liquids" is not suitable for large-scale development. The reason is that the coal-to-liquids project is very costly and very water-intensive, and the domestic coal-producing areas themselves are short of water. 　　“Coal-to-liquids exchange more energy for less energy. This kind of development regardless of cost is not cost-effective, not suitable for large-scale commercialization, and is also unsustainable. Technically speaking, there are still many difficulties that have not been overcome. ” An authoritative source from the Coal Chemical Institute of the General Administration of Coal said. 　　Unlimited business opportunities "coal-to-liquids" is called coal liquefaction. It uses coal as raw material to produce chemical products such as gasoline, diesel, and liquefied petroleum gas. Since the 1950s, South Africa has taken the lead in entering this field. So far, it has spent US$7 billion to build a three-phase "coal-to-liquids" plant with an annual output of 7.2 million tons of petroleum products. 　　China's energy characteristics are "rich in coal and little in oil and gas". According to statistics, China's total energy consumption in 2005 reached 2.11 billion tons of standard coal, of which coal accounted for 68%, oil accounted for 23.45%, natural gas accounted for 3%, and hydropower and nuclear power accounted for 5.45%. It is predicted that in the first 50 years of this century, coal will still dominate China's primary energy composition. 　　As the world's only large-scale direct coal liquefaction project, Shenhua has planned formal construction with a total investment of 60 billion yuan in Shangwan Town, Yijinhuoluo Banner, Ordos City, and started construction in 2004. 　　It is understood that this project will be constructed in two phases. The first phase of the project consists of three main production lines, including 14 sets of main production equipment such as coal liquefaction, coal hydrogen production, solvent hydrogenation, hydrogenation modification, and catalyst preparation. After the first phase of the project is completed and put into operation, it will use 9.7 million tons of coal every year and produce 3.2 million tons of various oil products. 　　In addition, Shenhua’s coal-to-olefins (coal-to-liquids) project has also been located in Baotou, and is jointly owned by Shenhua Group and * * Kerry Chemical Co., Ltd. and Baotou Tomorrow Technology Co., Ltd. jointly funded the construction, with a total investment of 11.6 billion yuan. 　　Shenhua's launch of coal-to-liquids is inseparable from high oil prices. In the past few years, high oil prices have repeatedly touched the sensitive nerves of China's economy. industry * * The International Energy Agency (IEA), an energy watchdog group, has warned that the world will face an oil supply "crisis" in the next five years, which will push oil prices to record levels and increase Western demand for oil supplies. * * Dependence on OPEC. 　　This is the starkest warning yet about the global energy future. The International Energy Agency even stated that "oil (supply) appears to be extremely tight in the next five years" and "around 2010, the natural gas market supply may even become even tighter." 　　Especially China, since becoming a net oil importer in 1993, its imports have increased sharply every year. Energy consumption is accelerating, and energy reserves are seriously insufficient. It is estimated that China's oil demand this year is around 330 million tons, but its production capacity is only 180 million tons. It is estimated that by 2008, China's oil demand will reach about 380 million tons, but oil production will be difficult to increase significantly. 　　Currently, China's imported crude oil accounts for 58%. If this rate continues, this proportion will reach 70% in 2015. This means that China must change its over-reliance on imported crude oil and diversify its energy supply and structure. In sharp contrast, my country's coal reserves are as high as more than 1 trillion tons, and its export volume ranks among the top in the world. However, our country spends US$25 billion every year to import oil. 　　Coal-to-liquids seems to be a breakthrough to solve this problem-seemingly ordinary coal is infiltrated with high-tech content, and after this change, the price of oil is sold. 　　As the leader in China’s “coal-to-liquids” project, Shenhua Group’s “coal-to-liquids” project under intensive construction in Inner Mongolia has always been regarded as * * The embodiment of energy substitution strategy. 　　Currently, in the field of coal-to-liquids, Yankuang, the second largest coal mining company in the country, has been making frequent efforts recently and is forming a duopoly competition with Shenhua. According to He Ye, deputy general manager of Yankuang Coal Co., Ltd. who is responsible for the Yulin coal chemical project, Yankuang Group's "coal-to-liquids" project completed the site selection and foundation laying as early as 2006 and is currently under normal construction. 　　Different from Shenhua Group's direct coal liquefaction technology, Yankuang adopts an indirect liquefaction method based on the low-temperature Fischer-Tropsch process that "has its own independent intellectual property rights." This technology is one of the "863" projects and has been * * 23 patents have been applied for, basically covering the key technologies of low-temperature Fischer-Tropsch synthetic coal-to-liquids, 8 of which have been granted * * Authorized by the Patent Office. 　　As early as August 2004, Yankuang Group had completed the Yulin project proposal and submitted it to * * National Development and Reform Commission. In December 2005, the project feasibility report was completed. February 8, 2006 * * The National Development and Reform Commission approved the preliminary work of the project and required the implementation of various construction conditions before reporting * * Approved by the National Development and Reform Commission. 　　At the same time, Anglo American, Shenhua Energy's largest strategic investor and a subsidiary of Anglo American, the world's second largest mining group, also chose the Xiwan Open-pit Coal Mine, the only area suitable for open-pit mining in the Yushen mining area, and its purpose also pointed to coal-to-liquids. Currently, the American company Dow is also interested in investing in the area. Its coal chemical project in Dabaodang Town initially plans to produce 3 million tons of coal-to-methanol, 1 million tons of olefins, 600,000 tons of chlor-alkali, and a self-contained power plant of 600,000 kilowatts. At present, the project pre-feasibility study report has been completed, the factory site has been initially determined, and the preliminary feasibility study report of the supporting coal mine with an annual output of 25 million tons has passed the final review of the owner. 　　At present, more than a dozen industrial parks featuring "coal conversion" have emerged in Yulin and Ordos. They will play an important role in the future launch of Shendong Coal Mine - a copy * * Data show that during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, funds intended to invest in the "energy profile" amounted to 500 billion yuan, of which Yulin and Ordos were evenly divided, each of which will introduce foreign investment of 250 billion yuan. Most of these investments are mainly in the coal chemical industry. 　　If coal-to-liquids technology, which has precedent in the world, is used to produce fuel, and if an annual investment of 100 billion yuan is made, China will form a self-sufficient supply capacity of approximately 40 million to 50 million tons of refined oil through coal-to-liquids projects in five years. This will not only have an impactful change in China's energy dependence on oil, but will also * * Change the international market’s expectations for China’s oil demand. 　　Multiple Risks As a large country with the largest coal reserves in the world but relatively insufficient crude oil resources, China * * He has always had a positive attitude toward mastering the “coal-to-liquids” technology. However, * * Attitudes toward “coal-to-liquids” technology are changing under economic and environmental pressures. 　　Following last year’s efforts to rectify unapproved “coal-to-liquids” projects in various places, the reporter learned that news came from the recent renewable energy conference held by the State Council. * * Coal chemical projects under construction will be stopped, an unnamed participant said. * In an interview with the media at that time, a member of the Communist Party of China criticized Shenhua's "coal-to-liquids" project, saying that it cost more than 10 billion but had a long life cycle. 　　This statement caused an uproar in the industry and once again brought the controversy surrounding "coal-to-liquids" technology to the surface. Because Shenhua has invested a lot in launching this project, and this also shows that * * Attitudes toward the introduction of “coal-to-liquids” technology have changed significantly. 　　Zhang Chi, a senior analyst at Cambridge Energy Consultants, believes that although * * The policy of vigorously promoting the development of renewable energy is completely correct, but in the short term, it is impossible to change the fact that coal is the main energy consumption in our country. “In this situation, the key is to master cleaner coal chemical technology. ”He said that as a strategic energy technology, China must master the "coal-to-liquids" technology, but this does not necessarily mean that the "coal-to-liquids" project will be able to produce oil products that meet market demand and economic benefits. 　　There is a common international rule for the operating efficiency of coal-to-liquid projects. Generally, the price of crude oil per barrel is between 22 and 28 US dollars, and coal-to-liquid operations can maintain capital. And above $28 a barrel, it is profitable. Now that the international oil price is stable at a high level, there will undoubtedly be huge profits for "coal to oil". 　　According to people familiar with the matter, Shenhua had previously planned to invest in "coal-to-liquids" projects in Ningxia, Xinjiang, and Hulunbuir, Inner Mongolia, due to investment risk issues. (Shenhua originally planned to invest approximately 200 billion yuan in the above three major projects, and the total oil product production capacity will reach 30 million tons after the project is put into operation.) The current clamor has become smaller. 　　Zhou Fengqi, a senior consultant at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that the coal-to-liquids project is a project that requires a lot of capital. In terms of project investment content, infrastructure construction and equipment introduction account for the vast majority. This means that only by increasing the investment scale to reduce the proportion of infrastructure fixed asset investment in total investment can the project's return rate be increased. 　　In addition, there are also huge technical risks in coal-to-liquids production. 　　Chen Wei, deputy general manager of Beijing Isogeneous Petroleum Consulting Company, said that domestic coal-to-liquids technology has not yet completed the pre-industrial testing process. It should be said that the real risk of China's coal-to-liquids industry at present is the neglect of potential risks during the project demonstration phase and its serious commercialization tendency. 　　It is understood that in September 2002, * * Shenhua's direct liquefaction feasibility study report was officially approved. When the American company handed over the patented technology process package (documents of basic project data and production methods) to Shenhua, Shenhua Group found that the official oil yield in the document was lower than the company's previous commitment, and there were many technical problems. Shenhua believed that building based on this technology was very risky, so it proposed CDCL liquefaction technology with independent intellectual property rights. However, authoritative sources revealed that Shenhua Group’s technology with independent intellectual property rights is still under research. At present, only the indirect liquefaction technology of South Africa's SASOL company is used for large-scale industrial production globally. ； In direct liquefaction technology, the United States, Germany, and Japan all claim to have mature technologies, but they have no examples of large-scale industrial production. 　　In China, indirect coal liquefaction is still in the intermediate experimental stage. The Shanxi Institute of Coal Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences has now developed the technology to build a 160,000-ton industrial demonstration plant. ； Shandong Yankuang Group's indirect liquefaction project with an annual output of 1 million tons is in the early research stage. In terms of direct coal liquefaction, currently only Shenhua Group’s projects are under construction. It is expected that one of the three production lines in the first phase of the project will be completed in 2007, with an annual oil production of 1 million tons, and this is only an "industrial demonstration production line." 　　The current technical risks of coal-to-liquids projects lie in the “process”, that is, the risks arising from technology to large-scale production. According to Du Minghua, president of the Beijing Chemical Engineering Research Branch of the China Coal Research Institute: A technology must go through a process of "experiment - semi-industrial experiment - industrial demonstration - large-scale industrial demonstration - commercial large-scale production" before it can be finally promoted. Many risks in this process are difficult to predict. 　　Yu Zhufeng, deputy director of the Beijing Coal Chemical Research Branch of the China Coal Research Institute, said: “In terms of Shenhua's current coal liquefaction scale, Shenhua seems to have broken through the demonstration itself. The latest introduction of Shell's joint venture to develop the Ningdong coal-to-liquids project shows signs of rapid expansion and taking advantage of the demonstration period to seize the pioneer position in the coal-to-liquids industry. ” 　　However, Shenhua's Inner Mongolia project, which is already in the midst of a large-scale industrialization demonstration, only had a device that processed 0.1 tons of coal per day in its initial test. However, the project's one production line has an annual output of 1 million tons of oil, which means that it processes at least 6,000 tons of coal every day. 　　“The huge leap from preliminary testing to industrial demonstration production capacity hides a lot of risks. ” Yu Zhufeng said. 　　For this reason, Shenhua invested 180 million yuan in Shanghai to build a direct liquefaction pilot base with 6 tons of coal per day to discuss the problems encountered in the Inner Mongolia project. Obviously, Shenhua is not sufficient in terms of technological research. .Note$#, $ $