Current status of methanol development in China
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In recent years, China’s methanol market has been very hot: The price of methanol continues to be high, the operating rate of methanol production equipment continues to increase, and new methanol projects in various places are starting to start. The reasons for this situation are: First, the production of traditional methanol consumption areas, such as formaldehyde, acetic acid and other products, has steadily increased, and the demand for methanol has gradually increased. ； Second, new consumption areas, such as alcohol ether fuels and methanol-to-olefins, have broad development prospects, which have also triggered domestic investment in methanol plants. Current status of methanol development in China In 2005, my country consumed 6.66 million tons of methanol, imported 1.36 million tons of methanol, exported 54,000 tons, and had a net import of 1.3 million tons. In the same year, the domestic methanol production capacity was 7.2 million tons, the output was 5.36 million tons, and the operating rate was 74.4%. In 2000, my country's methanol production capacity was only 3.48 million tons, and the apparent consumption was 3.294 million tons. In the five years from 2000 to 2005, the average annual growth rate of my country's methanol production capacity was 15.6%, and the average annual growth rate of apparent consumption was 15.1%. At present, my country's methanol consumption is mainly concentrated in formaldehyde, acetic acid, alcohol ethers and other fields. A research report provided by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association shows that in 2006, my country's methanol production and consumption continued to grow simultaneously. * * Data from the Bureau of Statistics show that in 2006, there were 142 methanol producers in China, with a total production capacity of 10.36 million tons and an output of 7.623 million tons. Data from other sources show that in addition to the above-mentioned 142 methanol companies, my country also has 25 methanol projects that have been put into production, with a total production capacity of 3.084 million tons and an output of 1.124 million tons. Among these 25 projects, some were completed and put into operation in 2006 or completed technical transformation. Due to the late start of production, the actual output is not large. ； In some cases, due to technical and other reasons, the operating rate is insufficient and the output is low. Combining these two parts of data, it can be seen that: In 2006, there were 167 methanol production enterprises in my country, with a total production capacity of 13.444 million tons and an output of 8.747 million tons. In 2006, my country imported 1.127 million tons of methanol and exported 190,000 tons. The net import volume was 940,000 tons. The apparent consumption was 9.684 million tons. Methanol consumption increased by 45% year-on-year. It can be seen that there is a certain gap in domestic methanol supply in 2006, which needs to be filled by imports. “Methanol development forecast in my country during the 11th Five-Year Plan According to statistics, there will be a total of 42 new or planned methanol projects in my country during the 11th Five-Year Plan (excluding the methanol production units of dimethyl ether and methanol-to-olefin production enterprises). Among them, 35 projects can be put into production during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, with a total production capacity of 11.98 million tons per year. The other seven projects are still in the preliminary work stage and have not yet started construction. The total production capacity of these seven projects is 6.7 million tons per year. It is expected that by the end of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", there will be about 200 methanol production enterprises in my country, and the production capacity will reach 25 million tons/year to 32 million tons/year. “Methanol downstream market forecast for the 11th Five-Year Plan In recent years, breakthroughs have been made in the localization of coal chemical technology and equipment. Emerging coal chemical industries such as alcohol ether fuel and methanol to olefins are in the ascendant. Coupled with the steady development of traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde and acetic acid, my country's demand for methanol continues to increase. The demand analysis of the main downstream products of methanol is as follows:: formaldehyde: Formaldehyde is the main downstream product of methanol. In 2005, formaldehyde consumption accounted for approximately 45% of the total methanol consumption. According to data provided by the National Formaldehyde Industry Cooperation Group, my country's formaldehyde production capacity was 12.316 million tons in 2005, and the output was 7.910 million tons. In 2005, formaldehyde production consumed 3.01 million tons of methanol, which increased to 3.81 million tons in 2006. At present, formaldehyde in my country is mainly used in the production of trialdehyde glue (urea-formaldehyde glue, phenolic glue and melamine-formaldehyde glue), followed by the production of diphenylmethane diisocyanate (MDI), and other raw materials for products such as pentaerythritol and polyoxymethylene (POM). Experts predict that during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, trialdehyde glue used for wood processing and interior decoration will still be the largest consumer of formaldehyde in China, and its demand for formaldehyde will grow steadily. In addition, with the completion of multiple MDI plants such as Yantai Wanhua and Shanghai Bayer, the demand for formaldehyde in the MDI industry will increase. * * Increase. POM is an important engineering plastic, and the market demand will grow year by year. Manufacturers such as China National Chemical Corporation and Yuntianhua are all building or renovating and expanding POM devices. As these devices are put into operation, formaldehyde consumption will also increase simultaneously. The demand for formaldehyde from other products, such as methenamine and polyols, will also increase to varying degrees. According to the prediction of the National Formaldehyde Industry Cooperation Group, as of 2010, my country will add about 2 million t/year of formaldehyde production capacity, the total production capacity will reach about 14 million t/year, and the output will be about 10 million t/year. Based on the calculation that 0.47t of methanol is required to produce 1 ton of formaldehyde, approximately 4.7 million tons of methanol will be consumed for formaldehyde production. acetic acid: Another major use of methanol is the production of acetic acid. According to data provided by the National Acetic Acid Industry Cooperation Group, in 2005, my country's production capacity of acetic acid produced by methanol oxo synthesis was approximately 900,000 tons, with an output of 766,000 tons and a consumption of 490,000 tons of methanol. ； In 2006, the production capacity was approximately 1.4 million tons, the output was 1.183 million tons, and the methanol consumption was 760,000 tons. The main consumption areas of acetic acid in my country are vinyl acetate/polyvinyl alcohol, acetate esters, acetic anhydride, terephthalic acid (PTA), chloroacetic acid, etc. It is expected that during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, driven by the rapid development of the polyester and polyester industries, the demand for PTA will increase significantly, and its demand for acetic acid will also increase simultaneously. In addition, acetates can replace benzene as solvents, which is beneficial to environmental protection and will have room for development in industries such as coatings. The demand for acetic acid in the chloroacetic acid, cellulose acetate, and acetic anhydride industries will also increase to varying degrees. There is also a huge market for vinyl acetate and ethylene copolymer resin. It is estimated that in 2010, the market demand for acetic acid will be approximately 5 million tons. Due to the advanced production technology of acetic acid produced by the methanol carbonyl method and the high degree of localization of the technology, all new acetic acid projects during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period adopt the oxo synthesis production technology. According to statistics, there are a total of 20 carbonyl acetic acid projects planned in my country, of which 12 can be completed and put into production during the "11th Five-Year Plan" period, with a cumulative production capacity of 3.05 million t/year. Due to the fact that the other eight projects have just started work or the work progress is slow, it is still unknown whether they can form actual production capacity during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period. The design capacity of these eight projects is 2.6 million tons/year. If only 12 projects are considered to be completed and put into production, my country's carbonyl acetic acid production capacity can reach 4.45 million tons in 2010 ； If all 20 projects can be completed and put into production, my country's carbonyl acetic acid production capacity will reach 7.05 million tons in 2010. If the operating rate is calculated at 85%, the output of carbonyl acetic acid will reach 3.78 million to 6 million tons. Calculating that 0.6t of methanol is needed to produce 1 ton of acetic acid, 2.27 million to 3.6 million tons of methanol will be consumed. Alcohol ether fuels and methanol to olefins: The development of alcohol ether fuels will help alleviate the contradiction between my country's oil supply and demand and is the focus of recent alternative energy work. If methanol gasoline standards can be formulated in 2008, and * * If methanol vehicles are allowed to be put on the market, and supporting systems such as gas stations can be improved, it is expected that the number of M85 to M100 methanol vehicles in my country will reach about 10,000 in 2010. If each vehicle consumes 20 tons of methanol per year, a total of 200,000 tons of methanol will be consumed. In addition, it is estimated that by 2010, my country will have 20 million tons of gasoline mixed with methanol. If the proportion is calculated as 15%, 3 million tons of methanol will be needed. The above two parts require a total of 3.2 million tons of methanol. Dimethyl ether has the advantages of non-pollution and high combustion calorific value. It can not only be used as civil fuel, but also as a substitute for diesel. At present, my country already has a production capacity of 930,000 tons/year of dimethyl ether (all of which is purchased from methanol to produce dimethyl ether). Due to the high degree of localization of dimethyl ether production technology, it is expected that there will be greater room for development during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period. Following the trial operation of dimethyl ether buses in Shanghai, Beijing, Wuhan and other places also intend to introduce dimethyl ether buses for trial operation. According to statistics from the National Alcohol Ethers Association, there are 14 dimethyl ether projects under construction during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, with a total production capacity of 4.19 million tons/year. Among them, the projects equipped with methanol have a total production capacity of 900,000 tons/year. ； The total production capacity of projects requiring outsourced methanol is 3.29 million tons/year. If 70% of the dimethyl ether production capacity of purchased methanol can be built before the end of 2010, plus the existing capacity of 930,000 t/year, the total dimethyl ether production capacity that needs to be purchased from methanol will be 3.23 million t/year. ； If all can be completed, the dimethyl ether production capacity of purchased methanol will reach 4.22 million tons/year. It is estimated that by the end of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", the production of dimethyl ether will require market purchases of 4.8 million to 6 million tons of methanol per year. At present, international oil prices are still running at a high level. Compared with petroleum-based olefins, coal-to-olefins have certain cost advantages. At the same time, coal-to-olefins are also in line with my country’s energy situation of “less oil and rich coal”. It is expected that methanol to olefins will have certain development space during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period. Currently, there are 6 methanol-to-olefin projects under construction or planned in my country, with a total olefin production capacity of 3.25 million t/year and a total methanol consumption of 9.96 million t/year. However, since these methanol-to-olefins projects are equipped with methanol production equipment, they will not purchase methanol from outside and will not have an impact on my country's methanol market demand. As a fuel additive, MTBE has relatively stable market demand, so the demand for methanol will not increase significantly during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period. It is estimated that in 2010, MTBE will consume 500,000 tons of methanol. other: In 2005, my country's pesticide and pharmaceutical industries consumed a total of 740,000 tons of methanol, and other industries such as dyes, solvents, and organic raw material industries such as methylamine and methyl chloride consumed a total of 1.124 million tons of methanol. According to expert predictions, during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, my country's pesticide, pharmaceutical, dye and other industries' demand for methanol will be relatively stable ； Methanol, used in the production of other organic chemical products and as a solvent, will not see much growth in consumption either. It is estimated that at the end of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", the demand for methanol in the above-mentioned industries will be approximately 2.6 million to 3 million tons/year. To sum up, it is estimated that my country's methanol demand in 2010 will be approximately 18 million to 21 million tons. “Forecast of Methanol Supply and Demand in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan According to the above statistics, during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", my country will add at least 12 million tons/year of methanol production capacity. If the remaining seven proposed projects can be successfully put into operation, an additional 6.7 million tons/year of methanol production capacity will be added. In 2010, my country's methanol production capacity will reach 25.42 million to 32.12 million tons. If the operating rate is calculated at 70%, the output will reach 17.8 million to 22.48 million tons. ； If the operating rate is calculated at 80%, the output will reach 20.33 million to 25.7 million tons. “During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, the demand for methanol from products such as formaldehyde and acetic acid is relatively stable and will not change much. The biggest impact on methanol demand is in the field of alcohol ether fuel, especially methanol fuel. if * * If relevant standards and policies for methanol gasoline and dimethyl ether can be promulgated in a timely manner, the market demand for methanol fuel will increase significantly. In 2010, my country's methanol demand will reach or even exceed 21 million tons. By then, my country's methanol production and demand will be basically balanced. If the standards and policies related to methanol gasoline and dimethyl ether cannot be promulgated or are introduced later, the market demand for methanol fuel will be greatly restricted. By then, my country's methanol demand will only be 18 million tons, or even less. Considering that my country's methanol exports have been increasing year by year in recent years, Global Energy Network believes that during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, if there are signs of excess in the domestic methanol industry, we can consider encouraging companies to export methanol. Assuming that the international methanol market situation is good by then, my country's methanol exports are relatively smooth, and export volume growth is relatively large, then my country's methanol supply and demand will be basically balanced or slightly surplus. If methanol exports do not go smoothly or do not grow significantly, there will be an obvious surplus of domestic methanol. (Global Energy Network)
There are many of the above and currently being used. If the gasoline is ready, it will be a great supplement to our country's gasoline in the future when oil prices rise. It is very good.
Methanol production in China began in 1957. In the 1950s, methanol-producing units using coal or coke as raw materials were built in Jilin, Lanzhou, Taiyuan and other places. In the 1960s, a number of small and medium-sized units were built, and a process for co-production of methanol was developed based on the synthetic ammonia industry. In the 1970s, Sichuan Vinylon Factory introduced a 95kt/a low-pressure method device using acetylene tail gas as raw material, using British ICI technology. In December 1995, the 200kt/a methanol production unit jointly designed by the Eighth Design Institute of the Ministry of Chemical Industry and the Shanghai Chemical Industry Design Institute was successfully put into operation at Shanghai Pacific Chemical Company, marking a new step in China's methanol production technology towards large-scale and localization. In 2000, Hangzhou Linda Company developed the JW low-pressure uniform temperature methanol synthesis tower technology with completely independent intellectual property rights, breaking the long-term monopoly by a few foreign companies such as ICI and Lurgi, and obtained the patent in 2004. * * Second Prize for Technical Invention. With the steady development of China's economic construction, the contradiction between supply and demand of energy and fuel has become increasingly intensified, and the issue of alternative fuels has attracted widespread attention. In the process of seeking alternative fuels, methanol fuel has shown unique advantages. * * With the strong support of relevant local departments and after years of efforts, the research and development of methanol fuel in China has made great achievements. China's methanol production is mainly concentrated in South China, East China and North China, accounting for 27.11%, 23.79% and 16.63% respectively. The main production provinces are Henan, Shaanxi, Shandong, Shanghai, Hebei, Chongqing and Anhui. In 2005, the domestic production of refined methanol was 5,362,246.52 tons. In 2006, the national cumulative production of refined methanol was 7,457,221.08 tons. From January to May 2007, the national cumulative production of refined methanol was 3,870,608.80 tons. The domestic import and export of methanol performed well. From 2001 to 2006, the total domestic import volume decreased year by year, while the total export volume basically increased year by year. In terms of market, since 2005, the domestic methanol market has been doing quite well, with prices basically rising all the way, from a maximum of 1,100 yuan in January to 2,100 yuan. In 2005, although the price of methanol fell back, it still remained at a high of 1,900 yuan. In 2006, the methanol market was a bright spot in the chemical market. The mainstream price throughout the year was in the range of 2,500-3,500 yuan/ton, with the highest price reaching 3,950-4,200 yuan/ton. The high price amplitude was the highest in the past ten years. In 2007, the domestic methanol market capacity continued to increase. From 2000 to 2006, the domestic apparent demand for methanol increased at a rate of about 16.5%. Based on this calculation, the apparent demand for methanol in 2007 will reach about 9.6 million tons. Facts have proved that the future development prospects of the methanol industry are very broad. In accordance with its commitments after joining the WTO, China first canceled the import quota management of refined oil and allowed wholly foreign-owned enterprises to operate oil product warehousing and retail business. Later, foreign businessmen were allowed to engage in the wholesale business of refined oil products and integrate with the world economy. Accordingly, under the guidance of policies, the market and efficiency can greatly promote the huge development of the methanol industry. from * * Economic development, energy strategic security needs, the conditions for comprehensive promotion of methanol fuel are mature, the development of methanol fuel has reached a critical moment, and the rapid development of methanol fuel is imperative. Industrial methanol has a wide range of uses. In addition to being a good solvent for many organic substances, it is mainly used in industrial production of synthetic fibers, formaldehyde, plastics, medicines, pesticides, dyes, synthetic proteins, etc. It is a basic organic chemical raw material. Methanol and gasoline (diesel) or other substances can be mixed into new fuels for various industrial or civilian uses. Mixing methanol and gasoline can be used as fuel for the transportation industry.
Don’t rush in, otherwise it will cause a waste of resources.
In fact, many gas stations now secretly add methanol. :lol
This article should be moved to the methanol and downstream products exchange area or information area
What China currently lacks is not gasoline, but diesel. It is precisely because of this that* * We have been unable to openly support methanol gasoline. If a large amount of gasoline is substituted, it will inevitably lead to a large surplus of gasoline, thus affecting the production of diesel.
In 2007, domestic methanol production exceeded 10 million tons, and production capacity exceeded 20 million tons.
No matter how good something is, there should be a question of balance. If this balance is broken, a new balance must be established.
Methanol could serve as future energy reserve
Our country's oil gap is very large, there will be no surplus of gasoline, and the gap is getting bigger and bigger. Replacing gasoline with methanol gasoline is one direction and will not affect the petroleum industry.