China’s nickel reserves and the prospects and opportunities for the development of its nickel industry

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1. Nickel resource reserves in China: According to data released by China’s Ministry of Land and Resources, as of the end of 2006, there were 93 known nickel mineral deposits across the country, with total nickel metal reserves of around 6.6 million tons (of which 2.3 million tons were considered basic reserves). Copper-nickel sulfide ores account for about 91% of the total reserves, with the remainder being oxide ores. China’s nickel sulfide deposits are mainly found in Jinchuan in Gansu Province, as well as in Hongqiling and Chibaisong in Jilin Province ； Kaltongke and Huangshan in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region ； Xiaonanshan in Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, etc. Nickel oxide ore in China is mainly found in the Panzhihua area in southwestern Sichuan and the Yuanjiang area in Yunnan. Due to its low nickel content, only small-scale mining takes place at present. 2. Nickel supply in China: The production of nickel products in China is relatively concentrated, with key regions including Gansu, Jilin, Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan. The main manufacturers include: Jinchuan Group Co., Ltd., Jilin Jien Nickel Industry Co., Ltd., and Fukang Smelting Plant of Xinjiang Non-ferrous Metals Industry (Group). In 2005, China’s nickel production was 107,000 tons, of which 3,500 tons came from Xinjiang, 6,000 tons from Jilin, 91,000 tons from Gansu, and 6,500 tons from other regions. 3. Current status of nickel consumption in China In 2005, China’s nickel consumption reached 170,000 tons. In China’s nickel consumption structure, stainless steel accounts for 51.3%, batteries account for 8.4%, electroplating accounts for 26%, non-ferrous alloys account for 8.5%, and others account for 5.8%. According to Barclay’s data, in the international market, stainless steel accounts for about 65% of nickel consumption, non-ferrous alloys account for 12%, electroplating accounts for 8%, chemicals and others account for 5%, and other categories account for 10%. 4. Projections for China’s future nickel consumption and supply: From 1998 to 2003, China’s nickel consumption grew at a rate of 25%. By 2006, China’s nickel consumption had reached 240,000 tons per year; by 2007, it was expected to approach 300,000 tons per year. By 2010, consumption was projected to reach 400,000 tons per year, after which China would become the world’s largest consumer of nickel. 5. China’s stainless steel industry: Since 2000, demand for stainless steel in China has shown a rapid upward trend. The apparent consumption of stainless steel increased from 540,000 tons in 1992 to 4.6 million tons in 2004, an increase of 8 times. In 2004, China’s stainless steel production was 2.3 million tons, while in 2005 it was 3.5 million tons; the apparent consumption was 5.5 million tons. According to incomplete statistics, China’s cold-rolled stainless steel production capacity will exceed 10 million tons. See Table 2. Table 2: Stainless steel projects under construction or planned in China. Company, 2005E (in ’000), 2006E (in ’000), 2010E (in ’000): Baosteel Group – 845, 1375, 1375; Taiyuan Stainless Steel Company – 1200, 2000, 2000; Tangshan Stainless Steel – 300, 1200; Jiuquan Iron and Steel Company – 150, 350, 600; Hangzhou Iron and Steel – 700; Shagang – 700; Zhangjiagang POSCO Steel Company – 600, 600; Huaxin Lihua Co., Ltd. – 1000; Taiwan Yehlian Steel Plant – 350, 550, 800; Tangrong Company – 500; Shanghai Krupp Stainless Steel Company – 500; Ningbo Baoxin Iron and Steel Company – 600. Total – 2545, 5175, 10575. By 2010, China’s stainless steel production is expected to exceed 8 million tons, with apparent consumption also approaching 8 million tons. 6. Nickel consumption in the battery industry: In 2004, China’s battery industry consumed 13,000 tons of nickel. In the past two years, the number of manufacturers in China that produce battery raw materials has increased significantly; there are over 20 such manufacturers of nickel foam alone, which consume nearly 2,000 tons of nickel per year. Although nickel’s share in the battery industry is not large relative to the total, its growth rate is the fastest. China’s annual production of various types of batteries accounts for about one-third of the world’s total production. According to forecasts by relevant agencies, China’s nickel demand is set to grow at a rate of over 20% in the next 5 years. Exports of nickel-cadmium, nickel-metal hydride, and lithium-ion batteries from China (in millions of units). In the future, high-energy battery materials such as foam nickel, spherical nickel hydroxide, and hydrogen storage alloy powders, along with various types of nickel powders and nickel-cobalt oxide powders, will be used in power batteries and fuel cells, and they will be the focus of development. 7. The development of China’s manufacturing sector has also driven demand for nickel in non-steel applications. Since the year 2000, the average annual growth rate of nickel consumption in China’s manufacturing industry has been over 20%, and in 2004, direct consumption of nickel in this sector accounted for approximately 45%. According to rough estimates, China currently has over 15,000 electroplating factories, with more than 5,000 production lines and an electroplating capacity of 250–300 million square meters. The electroplating industry consumes around 46,000 tons of nickel each year, accounting for 32% of the total nickel consumption. 8. The world economic situation and its trends: The world economy is in a period of stable and rapid growth, with the global economic growth rate expected to reach 4.9% in 2006. However, future world economic growth faces two major uncertainties: one is the issue of the global economy’s \"dual circulation\" pattern. In the first cycle, East Asia **exported large amounts to the United States, resulting in a large trade surplus and substantial foreign exchange reserves, while the United States imported large amounts, experiencing a large trade deficit and significant deficits ； The second cycle is that East Asia invests large amounts of its foreign exchange reserves in U.S. Treasury bonds to cover the deficit. It is crucial to determine whether this global economic pattern can persist. And the key lies in the second cycle; for now, there don’t seem to be any major problems, but there are risks in the long term. The second is oil prices and oil dollars. Firstly, high oil prices pose an increasing risk to the prospects of global economic growth ； Secondly, rising oil prices cause a large amount of dollars to flow from consuming countries to producing countries, and the flow of these substantial oil dollars will have a significant impact on the world economy. 9. Operation Status and Prospects of China’s Non-ferrous Metals Industry from 2005 to 2006: In the first half of 2006, China’s production of non-ferrous metals continued to grow steadily, with production volumes of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, antimony, magnesium, tungsten, and rare earths remaining among the highest in the world. In the first half of 2006, the sales revenue of non-ferrous metal enterprises above a certain scale increased by 58.67% on a year-on-year basis, while their profits rose by 89.78%. In terms of foreign trade, in the first half of 2006, the total value of China’s imports and exports of non-ferrous metals increased by 24.7% on a year-on-year basis; exports increased by 33.7%, while imports rose by 19.8%. The trade deficit in imports and exports amounted to 6.8 billion US dollars, and China’s non-ferrous metals industry remains an industry dominated by raw material imports and exports. Among them, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, cobalt, and titanium all show trade deficits, with these deficits continuing to increase; trade surpluses are mainly seen in minor metal categories. 10. Analysis of production and demand in China’s nickel market: In 2006, China’s production of nickel concentrate (in terms of nickel content) increased by about 15% on a year-on-year basis, but it still amounted to only around 70,000 tons. Due to the gradual depletion of nickel sulfide deposits worldwide, including in our country, imports of laterite nickel increased sharply in 2006. In 2006, China’s production of primary nickel is expected to be around 138,500 tons, with the production of ferronickel rising rapidly to over 20,000 tons. The application of laterite ore and the surge in nickel-iron production were the two major new developments in China’s nickel industry in 2006. On the demand side, it is estimated that China’s nickel consumption in 2006 will reach 248,700 tons, resulting in a significant gap between supply and demand for nickel domestically; net nickel imports in 2006 will amount to 113,700 tons. 11. Production and development of stainless steel in China: The demand for nickel in stainless steel accounts for 50% of China’s total nickel consumption. Therefore, analyzing the future development of stainless steel consumption and production in our country is a crucial step. According to Antaike, in 2006 China’s production of stainless steel was 5.1 million tons, while consumption reached 6.15 million tons, representing a 16% year-on-year increase; future growth is expected to remain around 10%. According to Hao Peigang from Taiyuan Iron and Steel Stainless Steel Co., Ltd., in 2006 China’s stainless steel production was 5 million tons, while the apparent demand was 5.78 million tons. Hao Peigang believes that, over a longer period of time, a ratio of 1:1.5 between GDP growth and the growth in apparent demand for stainless steel holds true, but on an annual basis, this situation hardly exists. Based on a forecast using a ratio of 1:1.5 between GDP growth and the growth in apparent demand for stainless steel, the apparent domestic demand for stainless steel is expected to reach 8.73 million tons by 2010. The year 2006 was the one in which China’s stainless steel production capacity grew the fastest, with an increase of 6.9 million tons, bringing the total production capacity to 12.65 million tons. 12. Nickel demand driven by the development of domestic stainless steel production: Considering China’s capacity and output in terms of stainless steel, the potential demand for nickel in the future is substantial. Specifically, for each 1 percentage point reduction in the use of 300-series stainless steel, which contains the highest amount of nickel, nearly 20,000 tons of nickel can be saved. It is estimated that by 2010, the amount of stainless steel scrap generated in our country will exceed the output of stainless steel in the United States. By the most conservative estimates, the nickel content in domestic stainless steel scrap was also above 100,000 tons in 2006, and it is set to exceed 200,000 tons by 2010 – surpassing the current total volume of production in China. Historical prices of non-ferrous metals (in dollars per ton) and the multiplier by which they have risen. The price in 1973; the highest price recorded was several times that of 1973. Zinc: 456, 4580; multiplier: 10.04. Lead: 359, 2132; multiplier: 5.94. Nickel: 3370, 51800; multiplier: 15.37. Copper: 1312, 8800; multiplier: 6.71. Aluminum: 582, 3180; multiplier: 5.46. Tin: 5018, 15200; multiplier: 3.03. Several international agencies predict that there will continue to be a shortage of nickel worldwide during 2007–2008. Given that LME nickel inventories are at extremely low levels, nickel prices may continue to rise in the future. The author estimates that nickel prices in 2007 will test 55,000 dollars, and may even remain in the range of 40,000–50,000 dollars on a long-term basis; it will still be the most noteworthy star commodity. 13. The growth in nickel demand comes primarily from the stainless steel industry. Approximately two-thirds of the world’s nickel is used in the production of stainless steel; therefore, the stainless steel industry has the greatest impact on nickel consumption. Among the world’s non-ferrous metals, nickel ranks fifth in terms of consumption, behind copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc. Thanks to its unparalleled advantages such as corrosion resistance, high temperature tolerance, high strength, attractive appearance, and 100% recyclability, stainless steel is widely used in various fields including construction, transportation, energy, petrochemicals, environmental protection, urban landscaping, healthcare, and the food service industry. It has gradually gained acceptance and is increasingly present in people’s daily lives. In recent years, there has been a surge in investment in China’s stainless steel industry. By 2010, the demand for hot-rolled and cold-rolled stainless steel sheets in our country was 6 million tons and 4.5 million tons respectively. At present, it is estimated that by 2010 China’s stainless steel production capacity will reach over 18 million tons, the hot-rolling capacity will be 15 million tons, and the cold-rolling capacity will exceed 10 million tons. Correspondingly, China’s stainless steel industry faces severe raw material risks. China has shifted from importing stainless steel products to importing raw materials for stainless steel. Nickel and chromium are important raw materials for stainless steel production. Nickel is a scarce resource on a global scale; only a few countries in the world have relatively abundant nickel resources, while our country suffers from a shortage of both nickel and chromium resources. The severe shortage of nickel resources has become a bottleneck in the development of China’s stainless steel industry. Global nickel consumption was 1.064 million tons in 1999, rising to 1.2848 million tons in 2004. During this period, China’s nickel consumption as a share of global consumption rose from 3.68% in 1999 to 11.67% in 2004. Due to the sharp increase in demand, China’s dependence on imported nickel has grown significantly; the proportion of imports in total consumption was 44.61% in 2001, rising to 53.33% in 2004 and reaching 60% in 2005. Over 70% of the future global growth in nickel demand will come from our country. 14. A once-in-a-century opportunity: For a long time after its establishment, China’s securities market was considered a \"policy-driven market,\" with some even viewing it as a \"casino\" that lacked investment value. In February 2004, the State Council issued the \"Several Opinions on Promoting the Reform, Opening Up, and Stable Development of the Capital Market,\" which outlined the strategic importance of developing the capital market in the new era and systematically put forward policy plans as well as specific measures to be implemented. The profound significance of this guiding document for the development of China’s securities market is self-evident. With the implementation of the \"Nine National Policies\" in recent years and the introduction of a series of related measures, the functions of China’s securities market as well as the asset nature of stocks have been restored. When tens of millions of investors are in a real market, we have no reason not to grant a bright future to China’s securities market. Following the release of the \"Nine National Policies,\" a new chapter was opened in the development of the foundational systems of China’s securities market. Some major historical issues that had long influenced the growth of China’s securities market were gradually resolved, and the Chinese stock market is currently in a period of significant transformation. “The reform related to the separation of share classes has been largely completed, and the fragmented dual-market structure is gradually being resolved. This is the first step for China’s stock market toward becoming a true market. After the elimination of the dual pricing system, the interests of major and minority shareholders will tend to align. We believe that as the marketization process accelerates, China’s investor protection system will become increasingly sophisticated, and the legitimate rights and interests of small and medium-sized investors will receive greater respect and more effective protection. 15. Non-ferrous metals industry: After decades or even centuries of extensive mining, global reserves of non-ferrous metals are becoming increasingly scarce. Metal prices tend to rise over the long term. In 2007, prices of major non-ferrous metals are likely to remain high, with little chance of sharp drops; however, there will be differences among various metals. Nickel, zinc, and lead will continue to strive to reach the levels seen in 2006, while copper, aluminum, and tin will see slight declines to varying degrees. Prices of molybdenum and tungsten will remain high. Given that the non-ferrous metals sector already saw a significant rise in 2006, and that if global economic growth falls short of expectations, the supply and demand dynamics in this sector could reverse itself, leading to a sharp drop in prices, there are currently some disagreements regarding this sector. But we insist that this bull market cycle will far exceed everyone’s expectations; the extremely low inventory levels of metals such as lead, zinc, and nickel, along with the supply gap that will still exist in 2007, indicate that prices will continue to rise. Although inventory levels of certain metals such as copper have risen in the short term, supply shortages are likely to ease in the future; however, any disruptions in supply or demand amid low inventory levels could drive prices back up. Based on the above analysis, we believe there are still good investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector in 2007. In the current A-share market, companies in the metals sector are involved in 11 sub-sectors including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, tungsten, titanium, tantalum, rare earths, and gold; there are nearly 30 such companies. The majority of them are engaged in smelting and processing, with few possessing mining resources, and even those that do have such resources generally have a low level of self-sufficiency. Trends in industrial development indicate that profits in the non-ferrous metals industry will continue to shift toward upstream resources and downstream areas involving high-value processing, while the intermediate stages of smelting and primary processing will only generate lower fees. Therefore, given the current low level of deep processing technology among domestic companies, only those with substantial resource reserves possess long-term investment value and can earn more profits from rising metal prices. 16. Global nickel production is growing rapidly, but it still fails to meet demand. 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E Global nickel production: 125.9 127.7 133.8 142.0 152.5; Year-on-year growth: 4.0% 1.4% 4.8% 6.1% 7.4%. Inventory adjustments: -1.5 0 0 0 0. Global demand: 126.4 124.1 136.3 145.5 154.6; Year-on-year growth: 1.8% -1.8% 9.8% 6.8% 6.2%. Global surplus/deficit: 1.0 3.6 -2.4 -3.5 -2.0. In 2006, China’s nickel consumption reached 248,700 tons, while its nickel production was around 120,000 tons; thus there was a significant deficit in domestic nickel supply and demand, with net nickel imports in that year reaching 113,700 tons. In 2007, China’s demand for nickel is expected to approach 300,000 tons, while the country’s production of nickel is projected to be around 160,000 tons; thus, there remains a significant gap between supply and demand for nickel in China. After the nickel consumption in China is expected to reach 400,000 tons per year by 2010, China will become the world’s largest consumer of nickel. At present, China’s basic nickel reserves amount to only about 2.3 million tons. In recent years, there has been no significant progress in nickel mine exploration in the country. If consumption continues at this rate, China’s nickel resources will be gradually depleted within 10 years. In summary, with the continuous development and progress of the international community, infrastructure development in countries around the world will enter a new phase. Global renewable scarce resources will become increasingly scarce, and their prices will only keep rising. Starting in the second half of 2003, a worldwide trend of rising resource prices hit our entire world, and to this day, this upward trend shows no sign of stopping and is even intensifying. In September 2003, the price of international crude oil futures was around 26.65 dollars per barrel; by July 2006 it had risen to about 78.4 dollars per barrel, representing a increase of 2.94 times ； During the same period, the price of aluminum on London futures was around $1,374 per ton; by May 2006, the price rose to $3,180 per ton, representing a increase of 2.31 times ； During the same period, the price of copper on London futures was around 1,676.5 dollars per ton; by May 2006, the price of copper rose to 8,800 dollars per ton, representing a increase of 5.25 times ； During the same period, the price of zinc on London futures was 819 dollars per ton; by November 2006, the price of zinc rose to 4,580 dollars per ton, representing a increase of 5.59 times ； During the same period, the price of lead on London futures was 500.5 dollars per ton; by May 2007, the price of lead rose to 2390 dollars per ton, representing a increase of 4.78 times ； During the same period, the price of tin on London futures was around 4,835 dollars per ton. By April 2007, the price of tin rose to 14,700 dollars per ton, representing a increase of 3.04 times ； During the same period, the price of nickel on London futures was 6,305 dollars per ton; by May 2007, the price of nickel rose to 51,800 dollars per ton, representing a increase of as much as 8.22 times ； Even for iron ore, the most widely used commodity, after a 71% increase last year, prices are set to rise by 19% this year – despite the Chinese Iron and Steel Association’s concerted efforts to resist such increases. Many people attribute the rise in prices of resource goods to market speculation, while even more people hope for a return to the true value of these resources; I believe this is an inevitable trend in the development of human society. The population in countries around the world is continuing to grow, while Earth’s resources are decreasing. The skyrocketing prices of mineral resources such as crude oil and non-ferrous metals, with no sign of a decline, indicate that the world economy has entered a brand new era of a resource-based economy, driven by the irreplaceability of scarce resources and the renewability of other resources. The contribution of resources to the growth of social wealth has become extremely important. In the era of a resource-based economy, technology has become increasingly widespread, and social productivity has reached a high level; as a result, resources have increasingly become the main bottleneck to the growth of social wealth, with resource development becoming the primary means for such growth. **The amount of resources per person consumes has become a key indicator of whether countries are prosperous and their populations wealthy. In the era of resource economics, the world’s major powers and key economies must deploy military, diplomatic, and economic forces to compete for and exploit resources. Given the limited availability of Earth’s resources for human use, their efficient utilization will become the key to human survival in the future. The development of human society is also a unity of the finite and the infinite. In the early stages of social development, only a few people possessed contemporary technology; when just that minority enjoyed modern technology and lifestyles, resources were not in short supply. But once all of humanity has access to contemporary technology and modern lifestyles, it becomes clear that the resources available on Earth are far less than the meager amount that was allocated per person among those few individuals in the past. In the world today, although no one has yet proposed a concept of society for an era based on resource economics, the major developed countries have all subordinated their economic, diplomatic, and military powers to the struggle for world resources. In order to compete for and control oil, the United States has not only built the world’s largest oil reserves but has also been at war in the Middle East for decades. The Japanese are fully aware of the importance of resources, and they have been importing large quantities of coal, non-ferrous metals, and rare earths from China for decades, a practice that continues to this day. Since last year, Russia has used its control over the supply of oil and gas to neighboring countries to influence those regions; thanks to its abundant oil resources, the economies of those countries have recovered rapidly. Therefore, understanding the era of resource economics from a theoretical perspective helps us grasp the essential characteristics of social and economic development ； Understanding the essence of international relations in the contemporary world helps us adjust our **development strategies and relationships with the international community in a timely manner. In the stage of technology-driven economy, scientific and technological discoveries are endless, and their dissemination is unlimited; therefore, society has an even greater need for, and reliance on, competitive mechanisms. In the era of resource economics, resources are limited and scarce; the characteristics of scarcity and monopoly are not suitable for competitive mechanisms. In the struggle for, protection of, and development of resources, unified **action may be more effective than a competitive free economy. Thus, in the stage of the \"knowledge economy,\" the \"discovery\" of knowledge is endless, and its dissemination is unlimited; as a result, society has an even greater need for, and relies on, competitive mechanisms. In the era of resource economics, resources are limited and scarce, and the monopolistic nature associated with scarcity is not very suitable for competitive mechanisms. In the struggle for, protection of, and development of resources, a unified **understanding may be more effective than a competitive free economy. Our country is large in terms of land area as well as population; it has abundant human resources, but the mineral resources per capita are extremely limited. In terms of mineral resources, only a few types such as tungsten, coal, and rare earths have certain advantages. The per capita share of major industrial minerals such as oil, natural gas, iron ore, copper, zinc, etc., is extremely low. The per capita livable area in the country is low, and there is a shortage of water resources in the north. We should respond promptly to the arrival of the resource economy era and take measures as early as possible. Unify the export of mineral resources through plans and permits. After the adoption of a market economy, China fully opened up export rights for enterprises, and the export of mineral resources became a sector plagued by the most intense price competition. Rare items that are unique to our country are sold at prices as if they were pants, with competitors around the world driving down their prices to buy them cheaply. The liquid crystals and various sensors produced in Japan, the United States, South Korea, and other countries all rely on rare earth elements from China. Yet the price of these rare earth elements in China is extremely low; once products are manufactured, China has to pay high prices to import them ； Japan imports coal from China to use for land reclamation, and to build up strategic reserves of various non-ferrous metals and rare earths. What does this indicate? It shows that we still have not realized the precious value of scarce resources, do not pay enough attention to their protection, and blindly emphasize market economy mechanisms for regulation. Therefore, we must establish strategic reserves of **scarce resources as soon as possible, and implement protective mining practices along with an export monopoly on mineral resources. **To plan the development of an industry based on resources, when planning the development of the automotive industry, it is necessary to take into account the constraints posed by oil resources. The service life of household cars is 15 years. By then, how much gasoline will be available for use in cars worldwide? While developed countries are striving to develop vehicles with dual power systems, they are transferring the production of conventional gasoline-powered cars to China. If we fail to undertake industrial transformation 15 years in advance to address the oil shortage and continue to pursue short-term gains, the entire automotive industry, along with the products it produces, will turn into piles of scrap metal. Technological progress and innovation are decisive factors in developing productivity, and they serve as the driving force behind economic and social development. Enterprises should be encouraged to keep track of the latest developments in industry technology, introduce and assimilate advanced foreign technologies, carry out independent research and development as well as technological innovation, in order to achieve breakthroughs in science and technology. Science and technology are one of humanity’s great practices, and they represent revolutionary forces that have played a decisive role in driving progress throughout history. In modern times, technological progress plays an increasingly decisive role in the development of social productivity, and it is having a wide and profound impact on all aspects of human society. Solving the major global issues such as resources, environment, ecology, and population depends on advancements in science and technology. Economic competition and competition in overall national strength on a global scale are, to a large extent, manifested as competition in science and technology. Nations whose science and technology remain underdeveloped for a long time cannot prosper or stand among the nations of the world. In the course of human development in the future, no field can do without computers, computer software operating systems, and the valuable resources of nature. If I were to use an analogy, the computer is like a person’s heart, the software operating system is like the brain, and the resources are like the body. The world has great companies like Intel and Microsoft, which have made the dream of automating various aspects of human life a reality, making significant contributions to humanity’s progress! We should deepen international cooperation, introduce and assimilate advanced foreign technologies, carry out independent development and technological innovation, so as to gradually realize the dream of automation in various fields of our country; Chinese enterprises will achieve a qualitative leap. The prices of nickel and molybdenum have risen by more than 7 times in just over 3 years, and they continue to increase. Perhaps in the near future, the price of nickel could exceed 500,000 yuan per ton, while the price of molybdenum could surpass 800,000 yuan per ton. It’s hard to predict how high their prices will go in 20 years; I find it difficult to imagine. This is likely the objective law of scarce, non-renewable resources on Earth in the context of societal development. We can only accept the fact that an era of resource-based economics has arrived. The harsh reality has shown humanity that the non-renewable resources of the Earth will be exhausted in the near future, and humanity will soon face a challenge to its very survival. We should cherish these non-renewable resources even more and make the most of them in order to bring benefits to future generations. Otherwise, we will face a survival crisis in the near future, which will be the downfall of a nation and **a people!