Where will the prospects of coal-to-liquid development go?

look* * Determined by policy and technical level

I personally think that from a certain perspective, the economic benefits of coal-to-liquids are not obvious, but it has certain strategic significance.

I agree with the opinions of the third floor, personally and from everyone in Haichuan* * empiricism * However, coal-to-liquid production is not cost-effective from an energy perspective and can only be used as a strategic investment.

China has suspended approval of new coal-to-liquids projects since the second half of last year, but currently implemented coal-to-liquids projects mainly include Shenhua’s 1 million-ton coal-to-liquids project in Ordos, Yankuang’s 1-million-ton coal-to-liquids project in Yulin, Shaanxi, as well as the 160,000-ton coal-to-liquids project in Lu’an, Shanxi, and the 160,000-ton coal-to-liquids project in Yitai, Inner Mongolia. Since China has no experience in the commercial operation of coal-to-liquids projects, if coal-to-liquids projects that are being launched all over the country are not stopped, it may cause a lot of waste. Therefore, in July 2006, * * The National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Strengthening the Construction and Management of Coal Chemical Projects to Promote the Healthy Development of the Industry", requiring that "after the planning is completed and obtained * * The approval or filing of coal chemical projects will be suspended until the development and reform department confirms it. For coal liquefaction projects, in * * Before the preparation of the coal liquefaction development plan is completed, the investment authorities at all levels should suspend the approval of coal liquefaction projects." at the same time, * * The entry threshold for coal chemical projects has been significantly raised. “Generally, coal-to-liquid projects with an annual output of less than 3 million tons, methanol and dimethyl ether projects with an annual output of less than 1 million tons, and coal-to-olefin projects with an annual output of less than 600,000 tons should not be approved. ” Personally, I think that from the perspective of China's energy reserve conditions, developing the coal liquefaction industry is a strategic choice for China. China's oil and natural gas resources are quite limited, and China's dependence on imported crude oil is increasing. At the same time, China is relatively rich in coal resources, so proper development of the coal liquefaction industry can reduce dependence on imported crude oil and ensure China's energy security. In addition, the coal-to-liquids industry is also economically feasible. According to international experience, the breakeven point of a coal-to-liquids project is equivalent to a crude oil price of US$22 to US$28 per barrel. Currently, South Africa's SASOL, the only company in the world with a commercial coal liquefaction business, is highly profitable.: In 2006, the synthetic oil business revenue was Rm25.649 billion, the operating profit was Rm13.499 billion, and the operating profit margin was as high as 52.63%. Based on the 7.5 million tons of coal liquefied products in 2006 and the current exchange rate of 1 rand = 0.139 US dollars, the profit per ton of liquefied products is as high as 475 US dollars. 　　For the Shenhua coal-to-liquids project, after it is completed by the end of this year, it is estimated that it will take at least a year of running-in period before it can gradually reach the expected indicators. 　　However, from a long-term development perspective, we are optimistic about the good development prospects of the coal-to-liquids industry. This post was last edited by kaisl1314 on 2008-1-14 10:07 ]

　 Recently, as world oil prices continue to rise, people from all walks of life are highly sensitive and concerned about oil issues. In order to break through the oil dilemma, Chinese public opinion has been hyping the "coal-to-liquids" project. Reports indicate that China has already seen a "100-billion-dollar Great Leap Forward" of "coal-to-liquids". At the same time, some experts believe that "coal-to-liquids" is more like a trap than its development opportunities, because it involves large investment, high unpredictable risks, and the prospects are not optimistic. “What is the current status of the "coal-to-liquids" project in China, what is the investment value of the company, and what position does it occupy in China's energy strategy? “The industrial output of "coal to oil" is zero. Generally speaking, there are two technical methods of "coal to oil": One is direct liquefaction of coal, and the other is indirect liquefaction of coal. Both methods have their own characteristics. Direct coal liquefaction has higher requirements for coal quality than indirect liquefaction, but the direct coal liquefaction route is relatively simple, has high thermal efficiency and a relatively high liquid product yield. Indirect coal liquefaction has less demanding coal quality requirements than direct liquefaction, and there are examples of long-term operation of industrial chemical plants in South Africa. However, the indirect coal liquefaction route is relatively long, and the thermal efficiency and liquid yield are lower than direct liquefaction. 　　At present, domestic indirect coal liquefaction is still in the intermediate experimental stage. The Shanxi Institute of Coal Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences has now developed the technology to build a 160,000-ton industrial demonstration plant. ； Shandong Yankuang Group's indirect liquefaction project with an annual output of 1 million tons is in the early research stage. In terms of direct coal liquefaction, currently only Shenhua Group’s projects are under construction. It is expected that one of the three production lines in the first phase of the project will be completed in 2007, with an annual oil production of 1 million tons, and this is only an "industrial demonstration production line." 　　“We can't just say that the first child is still in the mother's belly, just because the child was born too late! ”Du Minghua, president of the Beijing Coal Chemical Research Branch of the China Coal Research Institute, told New Finance and Economics that the idea that the current coal-to-liquids project has experienced a "Great Leap Forward", disordered and chaotic development is groundless and unreasonable. At present, many provinces and enterprises with coal resources come to the institute for consultation. Some of them are doing preliminary investigations and pre-feasibility study reports, but few of them have actually submitted them to the National Development and Reform Commission for approval. Du Minghua said that what is certain is that before 2010, we were in the demonstration and preparation stage of "coal-to-liquids" industrialization, and there is still a long way to go before industrialization matures. 　　Why is the industrialization of “coal-to-liquids” developing so slowly? Technically, the biggest problem is the failure to enter the industrialization demonstration stage as scheduled. Take direct liquefaction technology as an example. Germany invented this technology in 1913 and developed to its peak before World War II in 1945. At that time, the annual output could reach more than 4 million tons. * * Purpose. “After World War II, the United States * German technology and scientists were recruited to continue research on this project. However, the development of oil in the Middle East in the 1950s made oil cheaper than water. This technology lost the significance and value of research and stagnated. It was not until the two oil crises in the 1970s that the United States refocused its attention on "new energy" issues, including the development of a new generation of direct coal liquefaction technology. At the same time, Germany and Japan are also actively promoting research on this technology. When the United States completed the construction and operation of a new generation of direct coal liquefaction pilot plant (capable of processing about 200 tons of coal per day), the global oil price made a joke with this technology. Contrary to most predictions, by 1986, the world oil price averaged 13 to 15 US dollars per barrel, and once fell below 10 US dollars per barrel. After entering the 1990s, oil prices suddenly rebounded due to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and the subsequent Gulf War. After the Gulf War ended, oil prices continued to fall. By 1998, oil prices fell to the lowest level since 1977. As a result, the direct coal liquefaction research project in the United States was discontinued after it failed to enter the industrialization demonstration stage as scheduled. Japan's direct coal liquefaction research project was the last to be completed, and it persisted until 2000 to complete the project of a coal liquefaction pilot plant with a daily processing capacity of 150 tons of coal. The Coal Liquefaction Technology Research Institute of Beijing Coal Chemical Research Branch of China Coal Research Institute relies on the cooperation with Japan in the early 1980s. * * The cooperation (because of the scarcity of coal resources in Japan) has survived to this day and has become the authoritative scientific research institution for direct coal liquefaction research in China. 　　Therefore, the biggest problem encountered by Shenhua Group, the largest manufacturer of "coal-to-liquids" in China today, is also the lack of experience and technology in the industrial demonstration of direct coal liquefaction. Although Shenhua Group needs to introduce some key foreign technologies when developing direct coal liquefaction projects, the complete direct coal liquefaction technology engineering has yet to be developed and improved by Shenhua Group. There is a big difference between large-scale construction and commissioning of coal liquefaction plants and small-scale experiments. Du Minghua says: “‘The technical threshold for coal-to-liquid production is very high, much more difficult than producing computers! The production technology and process requirements required for such an investment scale of tens of billions of yuan are very standardized, and the technical requirements for each link are also very high. In addition, each manufacturer faces different environments, conditions and resources, making it difficult to enter this threshold. ”Shenhua Group entrusted the Coal Liquefaction Technology Research Institute of the Beijing Coal Chemical Research Institute to carry out technical equipment and process transformation. Only then was it able to declare a "breakthrough in core technology" at the beginning of this year and take a key step towards industrialization. “"Coal liquefaction" is an energy strategic technology. Whether coal should be used to make liquefied oil is still a controversial issue. Does the "coal to liquefaction" project have strategic significance for China's energy issues? 　　The representative figure who opposes coal-to-liquids is * * Zhou Dadi, director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission. he said: “From a global perspective, for a long time, there will be no advantage in using coal as raw material to produce oil, and it is not a trend in the development of new energy. China is poor in oil * * , but it does not mean that coal-to-liquids must be developed to alleviate energy tensions. Although China's overall coal reserves are not small, per capita coal possession is only 60% of the world average, and coal resources are also limited. The large-scale 'coal-to-liquids' projects being carried out now show that many of our energy policies are designed to take care of the interests of various groups and are not truly optimized. It is not impossible to make some efforts to develop 'coal-to-liquid' technology, but we cannot use the energy crisis as an excuse to do something that violates the rules. There is a price to pay for substituting one scarce resource for another. ” 　　Some entrepreneurs and several researchers from the Beijing Coal Chemical Research Institute told New Finance and Economics that they could not agree with this view. Du Minghua put forward the following views to "New Finance": 　　First, China must develop an energy strategy that suits its national conditions. China cannot simply copy developed countries * * The "oil and gas" development model is because China's recoverable reserves of oil and natural gas are less than 2% of the world's total. At present, China's proven coal resource reserves are 1.02 trillion tons. If unproven coal resources are added, China's coal resource reserves are predicted to be about 4.5 trillion tons. This number makes * * Zhang Guobao, deputy director of the Development and Reform Commission, is confident. He said: “At current production and consumption levels, we * * The coal can be mined and used for more than 100 years." 　　Second, it is conservatively estimated that based on the ratio of 4 tons of coal to 1 ton of oil (including direct liquefaction and indirect liquefaction), and based on currently planned projects, it is optimistically expected that by 2020, my country will produce 35 million tons of oil and consume 140 million tons of coal, accounting for approximately 5% to 7% of the annual coal consumption by then. Now our country has great potential to improve energy efficiency. These 140 million tons can be saved through energy conservation. At present, China imports more than 100 million tons of crude oil, and relying on "coal-to-liquid" can fill 30% of this gap. 　　Third, whether it is direct liquefaction or indirect liquefaction, the oil products produced are clean fuels. The sulfur and nitrogen content are only a few thousandths of current oil products, and the quality is far better than current oil products. 　　“No matter from which point of view, coal-to-liquid production is a very worthwhile thing. Just like the previous president * * * What he said during an inspection of our institute in 1996 was that 'coal liquefaction is a strategic energy technology'. Technical problems can be solved as long as we pay attention to them, but there is an essential difference between doing something about it and not doing it. The existing energy advantages are not used, but due to the oil problem, * * , * * , It is inappropriate to be passive in diplomacy. ”Du Minghua concluded. 　　Li Kejian, director of the Coal Liquefaction Technology Research Institute, provides another perspective: The calorific value of standard coal is 7,000 kcal (actually slightly lower than standard coal), and the calorific value of standard oil is 10,000 kcal. In other words, in terms of caloric value, coal is 60% to 70% of oil, but in terms of actual transaction prices, they are all calculated at high prices. One ton of coal is 500 yuan, one ton of oil is 5,000 yuan, and the price of coal is 10% of the price of oil. Therefore, the value of widespread application of "coal-to-liquid" is obvious. 　　“Analysis of the investment value of "coal-to-liquids" Li Kejian, director of the Coal Liquefaction Technology Research Institute of the Beijing Coal Chemical Research Branch, told "New Finance": “According to our research, four factors have the greatest impact on the economic benefits of coal liquefaction projects: The first is the price of oil, the second is the amount of investment, the third is the operating rate of the factory, and the fourth is the price of raw materials, including coal, water, electricity, etc. Our research found that among these four factors, the most sensitive to the economic benefits of the project is oil price, and the least sensitive is coal price. ” 　　Since a coal liquefaction project takes at least five to six years from planning to production, who can predict the oil and coal prices in five or six years? Faced with this doubt, Li Kejian believes that: 　　First, each factory has different cost control capabilities, so the cost of oil prices is also different. For example, different power generation methods, management methods, and coal transportation prices will have a greater impact on the cost of liquefied oil. The only reference is to compare the increase in oil prices with the increase in coal prices, assuming other conditions remain unchanged. If the increase in oil prices is equal to the increase in coal prices, then the factory's efficiency will become better and better. The current situation is that although coal prices are also rising, the extent of the increase is much smaller than the increase in oil prices. Second, there is a common international rule for the efficiency of "coal-to-liquid": As long as the cost is controlled between US$22 and US$28, "coal-to-liquids" can operate at a guaranteed cost. China's coal prices and labor costs are relatively cheap, and it has advantages in cost control. 　　Although Du Minghua and Li Kejian both expressed strong confidence in corporate profitability and believed that it would be a sustainable profitable project in the long term, they both reminded investors that: First of all, "coal-to-liquids" is a project that requires a lot of capital. It must have an annual output of at least 1 million tons of oil products, which requires an investment of about 10 billion yuan, and a start-up capital of about 3 billion yuan. ； Secondly, currently China * * Despite the attention, there remains caution about approving new direct coal liquefaction projects. 　　They believe that building a direct coal liquefaction plant should not be a purely corporate act. Except for some large state-owned enterprises, few companies have such financial strength and the ability to bear risks. * * Strong support should be adopted to accelerate this industrialization process. For example, learn * South Africa's approach: * * Provide guarantee support to enterprises. If the oil price falls below a certain price, * * Investment should be made to purchase the oil products produced as strategic reserves. This is an effective method.

Technical reserves are very necessary. I don’t think it’s necessary to do it on a large scale.