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“Forecasting my country's Coal Demand Situation During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan Period Foreign experience in coal utilization shows that coal-fired power generation is the main body of coal consumption. developed * * Generally accounting for more than 80% of all coal consumption, the United States currently accounts for more than 90%, which is more than 40 percentage points higher than my country. Compared with hydropower and nuclear power, coal-fired power generation in my country has the advantages of low investment and short construction period. ； Compared with gas and oil power generation, it has the advantages of sufficient fuel supply and low cost. Therefore, my country's coal-fired power generation has great room for development. In 2004, the coal power generation capacity was 1.78 trillion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 14.4% over 2003, and the coal consumption for power generation and heating was 994 million tons, an increase of 150 million tons. In the first eight months of 2005, coal power generated 1.28 trillion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. The annual coal power generation is expected to increase by about 12% to 2.05 trillion kilowatt hours, and 1.11 billion tons of coal will be used for power generation and heating, an increase of 116 million tons from 2004. In recent years, affected by the rapid growth in the output of high energy-consuming products such as steel, cement, and electrolytic aluminum, power generation has grown rapidly, and the power elasticity coefficient is above 1. “During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, with the * * As the effectiveness of macro-control becomes more apparent, the growth rate of energy-intensive industries will slow down, and power generation will gradually fall back to normal levels. It is predicted that the coal power generation from 2006 to 2010 will be 2.28 trillion, 2.42 trillion, 2.5 trillion, 2.55 trillion and 2.6 trillion kilowatt hours respectively. As new power generation units become larger, coal consumption for power generation will gradually decrease. In 2010, coal consumption for power generation will drop from 345 g/kWh in 2005 to 333 g/kWh. The demand for coal in the power industry is 1.21 billion, 1.29 billion, 1.34 billion, 1.38 billion and 1.41 billion tons respectively. - Iron and Steel Industry Coal consumed by the iron and steel industry is mainly coking coal, fuel coal and blast furnace injection coal. In 2004, pig iron production was 252 million tons and coal consumption was 210 million tons. In the first eight months of 2005, pig iron production was 210 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 31.9%. The annual pig iron output is expected to be 310 million tons, an increase of 58 million tons over the previous year, and the coal consumption is 240 million tons, an increase of 30 million tons. Coal demand in the steel industry is mainly determined by pig iron production and energy consumption. “During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, steel accumulation will further increase and the iron-to-steel ratio will gradually decrease. With the improvement of coal injection ratio (increasing coal injection ratio can reduce coke consumption) and the advancement of energy-saving technology, coal injection use will still show a rapid growth trend, but the coke ratio will decrease. Pig iron production is forecast to be 330 million, 340 million, 350 million, 355 million and 360 million tons respectively from 2006 to 2010. With the growth of pig iron production, through the adoption of technologies and energy-saving measures such as increasing the continuous casting ratio and upsizing the furnace type, the energy consumption per unit product will gradually decrease. The coke ratio will drop from 450 kilograms per ton in 2005 to 430 kilograms per ton in 2010. The coal demand in the iron and steel industry is predicted to be 255 million, 266 million, 276 million, 283 million and 290 million tons respectively from 2006 to 2010. --The coal consumption of cement, wall materials and lime in the building materials industry accounts for more than 95% of the coal consumption in the building materials industry, of which cement accounts for about 50%, wall materials account for about 34%, and lime accounts for about 13%. In 2004, cement output was 970 million tons, and the building materials industry consumed 280 million tons of coal. In the first eight months of 2005, cement output was 640 million tons and is expected to be 1.05 billion tons for the whole year. The building materials industry will consume 285 million tons of coal. my country has a large output of building materials products, but currently nearly two-thirds of cement production is still dominated by the backward and energy-consuming vertical kiln production method. 70% of the wall materials in house building materials are also dominated by clay solid bricks with backward technology, poor quality, and high energy consumption. Relevant data analysis shows that the average energy consumption of my country's building materials industry is nearly 50% higher than the international advanced level, and the energy saving potential is huge. As cement production technology and energy conservation levels improve (in 2010, new dry process cement production accounted for 70% of total production), cement coal consumption will gradually decrease. It is expected that by the end of 2006, the national output of solid clay bricks will decrease by 80 billion pieces. All cities will ban the use of solid clay bricks, and the national annual output of solid clay bricks will be controlled below 400 billion pieces. According to this prediction, coal demand in the building materials industry will remain at around 290 million tons from 2006 to 2010. - Chemical industry Coal used in the chemical industry is mainly coal used as raw material for the production of synthetic ammonia in nitrogen fertilizer plants, as well as coal for heating and other fuels. Currently, coal consumption for synthetic ammonia accounts for about 70%. In 2004, the output of synthetic ammonia was more than 42 million tons, and the chemical industry used 91 million tons of coal. It is estimated that the output of synthetic ammonia in 2005 will be 45 million tons, and the chemical industry will use 96 million tons of coal. “During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, my country's synthetic ammonia production will continue to increase, reaching 50 million tons in 2010. As international oil prices remain high, some ammonia synthesis units that use oil as raw material will be transformed into coal as raw material, and the coal required to produce synthetic ammonia will continue to increase. my country's methanol production will also continue to grow rapidly, reaching about 12 million tons in 2010, an increase of about 7.5 million tons compared with 2005. 80% of the new methanol production uses coal as raw material, and the new coal demand is about 15 million tons. It is predicted that in 2010, the new output of dimethyl ether will be about 4 million tons, and the new demand for coal will be about 11 million tons. The first phase of the Shenhua Coal Liquefaction 1 million tons oil project is expected to be put into operation around 2008. In 2010, the new coal demand will be about 4 million tons. Based on the above predictions, the demand for coal in the chemical industry from 2006 to 2010 will be 102 million, 108 million, 118 million, 130 million and 140 million tons respectively. －Other coal consumption In 2004, other coal consumption was 319 million tons. As the proportion of coal converted into electricity increases, the total amount of other coal used shows a gradual downward trend. -Coal import and export In 2004, my country exported approximately 87 million tons of coal and imported approximately 19 million tons. my country is poor in oil and rich in coal, so it is reasonable to export coal moderately, and my country's coal export market should be stabilized. “During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, coal exports will remain at around 80 million tons per year. my country's coking coal resources are scarce, especially main coking coal and fat coal, which have small reserves and low output. In the future, the import of scarce, high-quality coal such as coking coal should be increased. It is predicted that the annual coal import volume in 2010 will be around 40 million tons. (See Table 1) Table 1: “National coal demand forecasting unit during the 11th Five-Year Plan: Million tons 2004 Actual 2005 Expected 2006 Forecast 2007 Forecast 2008 Forecast 2009 Forecast 2010 Forecast National coal demand 196200 213000 222000 232000 237000 242000 245000 Domestic coal demand 189400 207500 216800 227100 232400 237700 241000 Electricity 99400 111000 121000 130000 134000 138000 141000 Steel 21000 24000 25500 26600 27600 28300 29000 Building materials 28000 28500 28900 29100 9000 29000 28900 Chemical industry 9100 9600 10200 10800 11800 13000 14000 Others 31900 34400 31200 30600 30000 29400 28100 Net coal exports 6800 5500 5200 4900 4600 4300 4000 Export 8700 8000 8000 8000 8000 8000 8000 Import 1900 2500 2800 3100 3400 3700 4000 According to the above prediction, the national coal demand from 2006 to 2010 was 2.22 billion, 2.32 billion, 2.37 billion, 2.42 billion and 2.45 billion tons respectively. (Excerpted from Chemical Project Network)