January Review and February Forecast on Methanol Trends

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Following the opening on New Year’s Day 2008, the methanol market showed mixed trends; price fluctuations were less pronounced compared to the period before the holiday, and overall transaction activity in the domestic market was weak. In mid-January, the domestic methanol market showed mixed trends; driven by the sharp rise in the dimethyl ether market, some methanol markets in the north stopped falling and started to rise, while markets in the south remained relatively stable. The methanol market in the southwest region is weakening, continuing to decline by 50–100 yuan per ton compared to the period before the holiday ； The selling price of methanol in the western part of Shandong is 2,900 yuan per ton, with the actual transaction price being slightly lower; in the southern region, the ex-plant price ranges from 2,900 to 3,000 yuan per ton. The ex-plant price of methanol produced by manufacturers in Jiangsu is between 2,900 and 3,100 yuan per ton, while the price of methanol at ports in Jiangsu is around 3,200 yuan per ton; however, the volume of transactions is not high ； In the Henan region, methanol prices are showing a steady upward trend; the spot transaction prices range from 2,800 to 3,050 yuan per ton, while the standard contract prices are around 2,750 yuan per ton ； Supply in the North China market is somewhat tight, driving up prices. The methanol market in Shaanxi is declining; the delivery price of coal-based methanol is around 2,500 yuan per ton (by road transport), with manufacturers preferring rail transport for delivery. The delivery price of methanol produced from natural gas is 3,000 yuan per ton, while the actual delivery prices range from 2,550 to 3,000 yuan per ton, with steady sales volume. Market outlook: Negative factors will continue to dominate the methanol market in the coming period, and the market is likely to remain in a weak, sideways trend. In the early stage, the price of dimethyl ether increased due to rising liquefied gas prices, but demand from downstream industries did not improve, so it had little impact on the methanol market. Coupled with the tendency of suppliers to buy when prices rise and avoid buying when they fall, the inventory pressure on methanol manufacturers continued to increase. Market participants generally believe that methanol prices have approached their bottom, with little room for further decline. It is expected that the methanol market will remain in a state of weak consolidation in the near term, showing a slight downward trend.