Is the coal-to-liquids project worth it?

Since it is an investment, it must be for profit, otherwise it is better to deposit it in the bank! But this kind of investment depends on whether it meets the* * Industrial policy!

Due to the current shortage of oil, there is a certain prospect in using coal to produce oil. If the technology is good, it can be profitable.

It is wasteful in terms of energy. This technology can be developed, but if the project is not an emergency, it is better to do it less.

my country has more coal and less oil, so coal-to-liquid projects should be developed

Some information and ideas for your reference. In the context of China's oil shortage, "coal to oil" is undoubtedly a good way to resolve the energy crisis. Although there are still various controversies about "coal to oil", and there are also huge risks, it is still difficult to restrain the investment impulse of enterprises. “ Whether the industrialization of "coal to oil" can be successful depends on changes in oil prices. If the price of crude oil in the international market is higher than US$28 per barrel, building a coal liquefaction plant in my country will have better economic benefits. But if the oil price falls below US$23, the coal-to-oil project will suffer a total loss. Some experts also believe that the key to whether the coal-to-oil project will be launched lies in whether the oil price can be maintained at US$45 a barrel for a long time, otherwise the project will become unprofitable. At present, from a technical and market perspective, the coal-to-liquids project is not a problem. However, the coal-to-oil industrial production project takes about five years from project establishment to production. It is difficult to predict the oil price in five years. This is an issue that companies need to consider when investing in "coal-to-oil" projects. Now that the oil price has exceeded 100 US dollars per barrel, can you tell me how profitable these projects can be? One can imagine. What needs to be reminded is that from a global perspective, for a long time, there will be no advantage in using coal as raw material to produce oil, and it is not a trend in the development of new energy. China is poor in oil * * , but it does not mean that coal-to-liquids must be developed to alleviate energy tensions. Although China's overall coal reserves are not small, per capita coal possession is only 60% of the world average, and coal resources are also limited. The large-scale coal-to-liquids projects currently underway illustrate that many of my country's energy policies are designed to take care of the interests of various groups and are not a true optimization approach. Developing coal-to-liquids technology certainly requires some effort, but it cannot violate the rules. It is not wise to substitute one scarce resource for another. Domestic one-sided pursuit of oil substitution is worrying. The hype about "coal-to-liquids" in some western regions far exceeds the actual development needs of the coal chemical industry. Some companies know that it is extremely unlikely that the project will be launched, but they still seize resources in the name of "coal-to-liquids". The actual purpose is mining. The rush to “coal-to-liquids” in various places may lead to a new round of waste of resources.

According to the existing data, including raw coal and thermal coal, it takes about 6-7 tons to produce 1 ton of oil. The oil quality is difficult to say. Of course, the type of coal is also an issue. It is difficult to describe the type of coal here. . . ;P

Coal-to-liquids is definitely beneficial, at least under China's oil monopoly! Doesn’t petroleum refining consume a lot of energy? Doesn't generating electricity consume energy? What is their energy conversion efficiency? It is technically and economically feasible, and as long as the oil monopoly is not eliminated, there is a lot to be done!

　The energy efficiency of coal-fired power generation is also very low. You can still make money by generating electricity. If the coal-to-oil technology can pass the test, you will definitely make a lot of money. A car can't carry a ton of coal on its back to use it as kinetic energy. This post was last edited by tmny1 on 2008-2-20 16:44 ]

Coal-to-liquids is an important trend in my country's energy strategy. Since the 1970s, countries around the world have learned lessons from multiple oil crises and generally established complete oil safety systems. developed * * In order to cope with emergencies of oil supply interruption, they generally reserve the equivalent of 90 days of oil imports, and Japan and the United States have oil reserves as long as half a year. my country is the only country without strategic oil reserves * * , if oil supply is interrupted in the short term, the consequences will be disastrous. In order to ensure oil security, including coal-to-liquids in the energy security strategic reserve project is an important trend in my country's energy strategy. Currently, oil prices are high and rising, pushing coal-to-liquid production to a strategic turning point.

Here is an article for your reference: "The coal-to-liquids project is still in the pilot stage amid controversy.” http://finance.people.com.cn/img/newcontent2005/spacer.gif On February 22, the country's first coal-based synthetic oil project started construction in Lu'an, Changzhi, Shanxi Province with a high profile. The coal-to-liquid technology that was once in the spotlight due to rising oil prices has now attracted everyone's attention. 　　Coal-to-liquids is still in the pilot stage. Coal-to-liquids is a general term, and there are two methods: direct liquefaction and indirect liquefaction. “From a technical perspective, direct coal liquefaction and indirect liquefaction are not interchangeable. ”Li Kejian, director of the Coal Liquefaction Technology Research Institute of the Beijing Coal Chemical Research Branch of China Coal Research Institute, said this in an interview with a reporter from China Economic Times. Generally speaking, both methods have their own characteristics. Direct coal liquefaction has higher requirements for coal quality than indirect liquefaction, but the direct coal liquefaction route is relatively simple, has high thermal efficiency and a relatively high liquid product yield. Indirect coal liquefaction has less stringent coal quality requirements than direct liquefaction, but the indirect coal liquefaction route is relatively long, and the thermal efficiency and liquid yield are lower than direct liquefaction. Li vividly said that direct liquefaction is like processing "whole wheat noodles", with fast speed and high output. ； Indirect liquefaction is like processing "special powder", which is time-consuming, high-precision and high-quality. 　　 * * Zhou Fengqi, a senior researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, told a China Economic Times reporter that domestic indirect coal liquefaction is still in the intermediate experimental stage. The production scale of the Lu'an coal-based synthetic oil demonstration plant is 160,000 tons per year, and the indirect liquefaction project of Shandong Yankuang Group with an annual output of 1 million tons is in the early research stage. In terms of direct coal liquefaction, currently only Shenhua Group’s projects are under construction. 　　Coal-to-liquid investment impulse The Lu'an project in Changzhi, Shanxi Province is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2008. It will take until 2010 to reach industrial scale and the production capacity will reach 2.6 million tons per year. By 2015, the production capacity will reach 5.2 million tons per year. At the end of January, Shenhua Group announced that it would build an 8.2 million-ton coal-to-liquids project in Xinjiang in the next few years, aiming to build Xinjiang into the largest coal-to-liquids base in China. Previously, the long-gestating Ningxia coal-to-liquids project had the latest progress. Ningxia Coal Group took this opportunity to declare that the Ningxia Coal Indirect Liquefaction Project, which invested 28.8 billion yuan and has an annual output of 8 million tons of oil, has entered the scientific research and demonstration stage. The project will start construction in 2008 and be completed and put into operation in 2011. This is after Shenhua Group, * * The second large-scale coal-to-liquids project approved for launch. 　　It is understood that coal-to-liquids has been included in the provincial development plan of Shanxi, and it is planned to build a large-scale enterprise group with one million tons of coal-based synthetic oil as the core between several large coal fields in Shuozhou and Datong within the next 5-10 years, relying on the advantages of local coal resources. Shandong Yankuang Group has invested 10 billion yuan to develop and build a million-ton coal liquefaction base in Guizhou Province ； The group also signed an agreement with Shaanxi Province to invest 9.526 billion yuan in the comprehensive development of coal liquefaction to oil in Shaanxi. 　　These are just some of the current coal-to-liquids projects that have surfaced. In fact, almost everywhere there is large-scale coal production, * * and enterprises are planning to launch coal-to-liquids projects, and many projects have submitted feasibility study reports. 　　Li Kejian analyzed to reporters that before 2010, China's coal liquefaction industrialization development mainly focused on engineering development and industrialization demonstration. After 2010, with the gradual maturity of domestic coal liquefaction engineering technology development and the accumulation of engineering operation experience, the industrial development of this technology will enter the second stage. It is estimated that by 2020, my country's total direct coal liquefaction production capacity will reach 16 million to 18 million tons per year, and the total indirect liquefaction product capacity will reach 20 million to 23 million tons per year. By then, coal liquefaction can provide about 13% of domestic transportation fuels. If calculated based on the constant price of direct liquefaction investment of 8 billion yuan and indirect liquefaction investment of 9 billion yuan for an annual production capacity of 1 million tons of products, by 2020, the cumulative total investment to achieve the above scale will be approximately 300 billion to 350 billion yuan. “But according to the current development speed of Daqian Kuaishang, it will far exceed this expectation," he said. 　　The battle over the economics of coal-to-liquids “Currently, from a technical and market perspective, coal-to-liquids projects are not a problem. International oil prices are operating at a high level, but international crude oil prices are affected by many factors and fluctuate greatly. The coal-to-oil industrial production project takes about five years from project establishment to production," Qian Pingfan, a researcher at the Industry Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, told a China Economic Times reporter, "Who can predict the oil price in five years? ”There is a general rule in the world for the operating efficiency of coal-to-oil projects, that is, as long as the price of a barrel of crude oil is between 22 and 28 US dollars, coal-to-oil projects can operate at a guaranteed cost. It is generally believed that if the price of crude oil in the international market is higher than US$25 per barrel, building a coal liquefaction plant in my country will have better economic benefits. ； But if oil prices fall below $20, the coal-to-oil project will suffer a total loss. 　　 * * Zhou Dadi, director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, told a reporter from the China Economic Times: “From a global perspective, for a long time, there will be no advantage in using coal as raw material to produce oil. This is not a trend in the development of new energy. China is poor in oil * * , but it does not mean that coal-to-liquids must be developed to alleviate energy tensions. Although China's overall coal reserves are not small, per capita coal possession is only 60% of the world average, and coal resources are also limited. Coal-to-liquids projects are not a real way to optimize. ”he thinks: “It is not feasible to convert coal into oil in China. There is a price to pay for replacing one scarce resource with another. ” 　　The coal-to-liquids project was settled in Shenhua because Shenhua has a series of advantages from resources, transportation to sales. Shenhua’s current coal pit cost for the coal-to-liquids project is only 80-100 yuan per ton. Shenhua Group's next coal-to-liquids strategy will only be considered if all of the above conditions are met. Otherwise, it means huge risks. It is very likely that the plant will be built but will have to face long-term losses. In recent years, the domestic coal pit price has risen to 250 yuan/ton, which undoubtedly puts pressure on coal-to-liquids. China's coal-to-liquids industry is undoubtedly a high-risk investment industry. 　　Li Kejian and other researchers from the Beijing Coal Chemical Research Institute said that based on the ratio of 4 tons of coal to 1 ton of oil, my country will produce 35 million tons of oil by 2020 and consume 140 million tons of coal, accounting for about 5% to 7% of the annual coal consumption by then. Now our country has great potential to improve energy efficiency, and these 140 million tons can be saved through energy conservation. China currently imports more than 100 million tons of crude oil, and relying on coal-to-liquids can fill 30% of this gap. Moreover, whether it is direct liquefaction or indirect liquefaction, the oil products produced are clean fuels. The sulfur and nitrogen content are only a few thousandths of current oil products, and the quality is far better than current oil products. 　　Although Li Kejian expressed strong confidence in corporate profitability and believed that it would be a sustainable profitable project in the long term, he reminded that although China has mastered coal-to-liquid technology, it is still in the experimental stage and has no experience in industrial production. at present * * Despite the attention, there remains caution about approving new direct coal liquefaction projects. He believes that the construction of a direct coal liquefaction plant should not be a purely corporate behavior. * * Strong support should be adopted to accelerate this industrialization process. If the oil price falls below a certain price, * * Funds should be invested to purchase the oil products produced as strategic reserves. (Fan Sili) Source: "China Economic Times" (Editor-in-Chief: Chen Yuchuan)

Our country is rich in coal but short of oil and gas, so we should develop coal-to-liquids

from* * From a strategic perspective, projects should be launched, but not casually. Some large projects can be allowed to be launched. But also from a strategic perspective, China should better control oil extraction, explore more oil reserves, especially offshore oil reserves, and exploit them. In addition, China should purchase more oil from abroad. This can be learned from Japan. * , but China must do a good job in oil reserves.

1. From the perspective of China’s national conditions, China is indeed short of oil. 2. From the perspective of the interests of enterprises and some groups, there is indeed profit in converting coal into oil. It's neither illegal nor illegal. The coal will run out sooner or later, so why not make some money first.

Although coal is not renewable, China's coal resources can be used to develop alternative energy sources long before they are used up. Isn't the nuclear fusion project under construction in France? Therefore, as long as the cost can guarantee profit from coal to oil, why not do it? I support coal-to-liquids.

should be developed as* * The development of energy strategy should carry out the construction of demonstration projects, but at the same time, it should be combined with changes in international oil prices. Changing from coal to oil will increase the cost of producing oil products, so it should be technically developed, but it cannot be built blindly.

The cost of coal-to-liquids is relatively high. Since the Germans discovered coal-to-liquids technology during World War II, there has been no major breakthrough in technology. Therefore, it mainly depends on the choice of coal type. If the content of chitin and sapropel in the coal is high, the oil yield will be high.

It is beneficial to streamline processes, master technology, and control construction of a certain scale. It can reduce dependence on oil imports and improve* * Energy strategic security can form a form of energy security that is both open and ready.

We will know if it is worth it until the current coal-to-liquids project is put into operation and starts operation.

I think whether the coal-to-liquids project is worthwhile mainly depends on the economic benefits, and then how valuable it is in a certain historical period and a certain social stage. First of all, in today's social and historical stage of oil shortage, coal-to-liquids can already create considerable economic benefits. Why not do it? ； Furthermore, coal-to-liquid technology has stalled since World War II because of the low cost of crude oil extraction after World War II. Up to now, the cost of crude oil has increased by as much as four times. ； Third, it is also the use of energy, but it is just a question of how to use it. If we use it to generate electricity, doesn't it waste water resources? If it is used for civilian heating, it will also pollute the environment and be made into oil. It has been transformed into a relatively clean energy source, which has alleviated my country's oil crisis and created benefits. Why not do it. This is my humble opinion.