Polysilicon: Bright prospects, but a long road ahead
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Polysilicon: Bright prospects, but a long road ahead http://china.chemnet.com February 10, 2009, 08:12:52 China Chemical Network [Large Medium Small] Business News, February 10 – At the beginning of the new year, two developments have boosted enthusiasm in the polysilicon-photovoltaic industry! Firstly, the Energy Law has been submitted to the Legal Affairs Office of the State Council; it is expected to be reviewed at a meeting of the State Council’s executive committee this year, which will have a direct impact on the overall planning of energy policies during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. Subsequently, solar cell manufacturing giants such as Wuxi Suntech, SunPower LDK, Changzhou Trina Solar, LinYang New Energy, CSI Artesolar, and Nanjing Guanya have submitted a proposal for a photovoltaic power generation cost of 1 yuan per kilowatt-hour to the Ministry of Science and Technology. This indicates that the integration of photovoltaic power generation into the grid is no longer that far off, and these two positive developments undoubtedly serve as a boost for polysilicon and photovoltaic companies! Starting in 2007, crude oil caused the overall costs of the entire traditional energy sector to soar. While prices in the traditional energy industry fluctuated, the polysilicon-solar photovoltaic industry, which represents the new energy sector, attracted particular attention – the price of polysilicon used in solar photovoltaic applications rose by more than 400%, from $90 per kilogram in 2005 to around $400 per kilogram by the beginning of 2008. Driven by profits, global polysilicon production capacity expanded rapidly. With the onset of the economic crisis in 2008 and the bursting of the speculation bubble, the price of polysilicon dropped from a high of $400 per kilogram to around $100 per kilogram by December 2008. Polysilicon companies have been severely hit by this economic crisis! While accelerating the reshuffle in the polysilicon industry, it also sped up the standardization of this sector. Connecting polycrystalline silicon photovoltaic systems to the grid has become the best solution. Ni Yunda, chairman of Jiangsu Shunda Semiconductor Development Co., Ltd., said that the polysilicon products manufactured by Shunda can now be used in solar power generation at a cost of 1.8 yuan per kilowatt-hour. “In the next two years or so, the production cost per unit of electricity will be only around 1 yuan, which is roughly comparable to the cost of electricity for industrial use. ”Peng Xiaofeng, chairman of Sevai LDK, agreed that the cost of photovoltaic power generation could drop to 1 yuan per kilowatt-hour by 2012. He believes that the rapid decline in raw material costs has caused the manufacturing costs of photovoltaic products to fall faster than expected. “By the end of 2007, the electricity prices in some European countries, such as Italy and Denmark, reached 0.234 and 0.245 euros respectively, which is equivalent to over 2 yuan in RMB. Therefore, taking factors such as environmental protection and rising electricity prices into account, photovoltaic power generation can compete with conventional energy sources when its cost drops to 1 yuan per kilowatt-hour or 1.5 yuan per kilowatt-hour. ” “The situation of exorbitant polysilicon prices that hindered cost reductions in the industry can no longer be repeated. ”Senior executives from the aforementioned companies said that the cost of polysilicon is around $30–40 per kilogram, and thanks to recent technological advancements, this cost will continue to drop. Therefore, the issue related to silicon, which accounts for 70% of the costs in photovoltaic products, will not pose an obstacle to the plan of achieving photovoltaic power generation at 1 yuan per unit of electricity. If polysilicon prices truly drop to $30–40 per kilogram, it will undoubtedly be a devastating blow to the newly established polysilicon companies. Especially since many of these companies have venture capital investment involved, this only increases their risks. So how can businesses address this challenge? A survey conducted by the Information Center of China Chemical Industry Network found that establishing a complete polysilicon-photovoltaic/semiconductor-solar energy industry chain would help reduce risks. We have observed the following phenomenon: for China’s polysilicon and solar energy industries, 90% of the raw materials come from abroad, and 90% of the market is also located overseas. With the sharp rise in polysilicon prices, other countries that possess polysilicon production technology, including Germany, have also begun to place more emphasis on supporting their own domestic enterprises, which makes it more difficult for downstream photovoltaic companies to expand their market presence. A decrease in demand for raw materials downstream is equivalent to removing the foundation from upstream manufacturing enterprises. Therefore, a fully developed technical industrial chain for metal silicon-polysilicon-solar cells represents the most effective way to address risks and improve efficiency. There are two types of technologies currently in use in the country: one is technology imported from abroad, and the other is domestic technology developed locally. Foreign technologies are mainly from Germany and Russia, while domestic technologies are represented by the Emei Mountain Semiconductor Institute in Sichuan. Recently, the **National Development and Reform Commission officially approved the establishment of an engineering laboratory for polycrystalline silicon material preparation technology at Luoyang Zhongsi High-Tech**, and allocated 15 million yuan in **investment subsidies**. We are pleased to see that, with the increasing emphasis on **new energy**, support for the polysilicon-solar photovoltaic industry is on the rise. The impact of energy on modern society is self-evident; in traditional energy sectors such as oil, natural gas, and coal, our country does not hold a competitive advantage. However, the emerging polysilicon-solar photovoltaic industry offers us a brand new opportunity. We also expect domestic polysilicon companies to be able to occupy an important position in this emerging and crucial field ； We also believe that the prospects for the domestic silicon industry are very promising. Although the path ahead is long and full of challenges, we will one day be at the forefront of the world.
The price of polysilicon has dropped to $150, and it may fall below $100 by the middle of this year. http://china.chemnet.com February 10, 2009, 14:29:23 Photoelectric News Network 【Large Medium Small】 Although U.S. President Barack Obama recently proposed the Apollo Project, which aims to invest $500 billion over 10 years in developing alternative energy sources, the demand for solar cells has declined sharply due to falling oil prices and weak market demand. As a result, the price of polysilicon for solar use has plummeted; the average price per kilogram of polysilicon in the third quarter of last year was $375, but it dropped to $150 by the end of the fourth quarter, and it is likely to fall below $100 by the middle of this year. The Apollo Plan aims to have alternative energy account for 25% of the energy mix by 2025, creating 5 million \"green-collar\" jobs. However, the high oil prices that once drove up demand for solar cells are no longer present. The financial crisis has left countries unable to increase subsidies for alternative energy sources, and with terminal demand showing signs of stagnation, solar cell manufacturers have reduced their production capacity. Polysilicon prices have also collapsed due to a sharp drop in demand. Market research firm iSuppli recently noted that polysilicon and silicon wafer manufacturers have dominated and controlled overall market prices over the past 3 years; the spot price reached $200 per kilogram in 2007, and it soared even higher to $375 per kilogram in the third quarter of last year. However, over 60 companies have already announced their intention to enter the polysilicon market next year. With a surge in polysilicon supply while demand remains stagnant, its price dropped to $150 by the end of the fourth quarter last year, and it has continued to fall this year as well. According to battery industry insiders, amid the financial crisis, polysilicon manufacturers prioritize cash; they wish to reduce prices in order to sell more of their product and obtain more cash, and there are already signs of price declines. Although, based on the expansion plans of battery manufacturers around the world, there will still be a demand shortfall for polysilicon this year, weak demand has caused the capacity utilization rates of these manufacturers to drop sharply from full capacity to 60% to 70%; by the end of this quarter it is likely to fall further to 50%, after which polysilicon prices will continue to decline. Prices are likely to drop to $125 in the first quarter of this year, and could fall below $100 by mid-year.
The OP’s title already provides a concise summary of the content! At present, the technology related to polysilicon is still not mature in China; the key technologies remain in the hands of foreign countries!
The prospects are bright, but many technologies remain blocked by foreign countries; therefore, there is still a significant gap in investment in this area! !