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Hebei Weiyuan Biochemical’s dimethyl ether business will be integrated into the listed company in 2009; the asset transfer plan has been submitted to the China Securities Regulatory Commission for approval, with the targeted share issuance expected to take place in the first half of 2009. At the same time, the company promises to gradually bring the dimethyl ether and methanol projects of Newao Group into the listed company. After completing a series of injections, the company will gradually transform into an enterprise focused on alcohol-ether fuel as an alternative energy source. At the beginning of 2008, Weiyuan Biochemical began to work actively on the incorporation of dimethyl ether assets, but the proposal was rejected at the shareholders’ meeting. In September 2008, Weiyuan Biochemical resumed the process of injecting dimethyl ether-related assets into the company; through a private placement, it planned to acquire 75% of the shares in Xinneng (Zhangjiagang) held by CNPC Holding, as well as 100% of the shares in Xinneng (Bengbu). Due to the collapse in oil prices in 2008, the price of liquefied gas, which serves as a substitute for dimethyl ether, dropped significantly, causing the price of dimethyl ether to fall to 2,650 yuan per ton. This led to a sharp decline in the industry’s profitability; weak demand resulted in an overall operating rate of only 20%–30% across the industry. We estimate that crude oil prices will remain low in the near term, and the profitability of dimethyl ether is not optimistic. The dimethyl ether raw material used by the company is supplied by Mason, a major international methanol supplier, at a low price of around 1,600 yuan per ton; compared to other companies in the same industry, the company’s costs are lower. At the same time, the company has developed a small quantity of dimethyl ether products in aerosol form, whose gross margin is significantly higher than that of the fuel-based products. However, due to an oversupply and oversupply situation in the industry, profitability has decreased significantly compared to 2008.
Last week (February 2-6), prices rose in most parts of the Asian methanol market, driven primarily by the strong purchasing power of Chinese buyers. After the Spring Festival, Chinese buyers were in urgent need to enter the market and make purchases, which boosted the confidence of suppliers; with smooth sales, prices rose again. Currently, the CIF price of methanol in the Southeast Asian market is $154–156 per ton ; The CIF price of methanol at Chinese ports is $189–190 per ton. Methanol trading in Europe is showing signs of recovery; inventory levels are gradually decreasing and prices are stable. Currently, the price of methanol is at 211–213 US dollars per ton (FOB Rotterdam) ; Supply and demand in the U.S. market remain stable, with a decent trading atmosphere; the spot price for methanol is 44–45 cents per gallon (FD U.S. Gulf), which is equivalent to approximately 146–149 dollars per ton. Last week, the methanol market in East China showed an upward trend; although trading volume was low, prices rose on paper, with mainstream quotes ranging from 1,700 to 1,800 yuan per ton. After the holiday, prices on the methanol electronic trading platform rose, and prices in the international market also began to increase. Additionally, the expectation that downstream users would stock up on supplies after the holiday boosted the confidence of those holding inventory to some extent. However, in reality, the recovery in demand on the downstream side is quite limited, and the trading atmosphere remains subdued. Additionally, a large volume of imported goods will continue to arrive at the ports in East China, and imported methanol enjoys a significant price advantage; as a result, there will still be considerable pressure on the market in the coming period. At present, the demand from downstream buyers in Jiangsu’s methanol market is moderate; the prevailing ex-plant price ranges between 1,700 and 1,750 yuan per ton, with actual negotiation prices lean ing towards the lower end ; The supply of methanol in the Ningbo area is limited, so traders face little pressure to sell their stock. The prevailing ex-plant price is around 1750–1800 yuan per ton, with actual transaction prices being slightly lower. In terms of plant operations, the operating capacity of major methanol plants in the East China region remains around 20%. Due to reduced inventory pressures, manufacturers have raised their export prices slightly to around 1,700 yuan per ton. Last week, the methanol market in South China saw weak trading activity, with prices remaining stable but on the rise; the mainstream pricing ranged from 1600 to 1650 yuan per ton, while prices for higher-quality products increased slightly. Demand from downstream sectors is waiting to recover after the holiday, with a strong sentiment of caution in the market, resulting in weak trading activity. After the holiday, the methanol supply in South China remained relatively stable, but recently 20,000–30,000 tons of imported methanol arrived, putting pressure on those holding inventory and preventing prices from rising. The main methanol plants in Fujian region continue to operate at reduced capacity; some of the produced product is used internally, while sales performance is average. The prevailing price range is 1,750–1,800 yuan per ton. Last week, most methanol producers in Central China continued to operate at reduced capacity due to shutdowns, resulting in limited new supply entering the market. Downstream demand failed to increase significantly, with prices remaining stable at low levels. There are very few methanol plants in the Henan region that are operating; the overall operational rate is between 20-30%. However, due to a lack of demand, sales remain sluggish, with companies focusing on local sales. The current mainstream price is 1,600–1,650 yuan per ton. The methanol market in Hunan is operating at a reduced scale, with few buyers entering the market; traders are adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Methanol manufacturers are operating at low capacity, and the prevailing ex-factory prices range from 1680 to 1700 yuan per ton. The trading atmosphere for methanol in Hubei is sluggish; downstream demand has yet to recover effectively, and market supply has decreased. The mainstream pricing by methanol manufacturers is 1,650–1,700 yuan per ton, with slight price fluctuations. Last week, the overall operating capacity of methanol plants in North China remained low; market supply decreased, and manufacturers raised their prices slightly. The average ex-plant price for methanol was between 1,600 and 1,700 yuan per ton. In the Shijiazhuang area, due to the lack of enthusiasm on the part of dimethyl ether and formaldehyde manufacturers downstream to purchase raw materials, methanol manufacturers are seeing slow sales; as a result, producers are opting to wait and see. The current average selling price is around 1680–1700 yuan per ton. The prevailing price in the Xingtai and Zhangjiakou areas is 1,650–1,700 yuan per ton. In the central and northern regions of Shanxi, more than 2 million tons worth of methanol production capacity has been shut down, while the operating capacity of major enterprises in the southern region is only 20-30% of normal levels. The overall inventory of methanol producers is not high, so there is little pressure to sell. However, after the holiday, some downstream customers resumed purchasing to restock their inventories, which helped boost the confidence of those holding inventory. The current mainstream ex-factory price of methanol is 1,600–1,700 yuan per ton. Last week, the methanol market in the Northeast region saw an increase in trading and rising prices, as the low operating levels of the main methanol production plants led to reduced new supply. This was coupled with downstream factories stocking up in preparation to resume production after the holiday period. The operating rate of coal-to-methanol plants is low; manufacturers are able to sell their products, with the prevailing price ranging from 1,550 to 1,650 yuan per ton. However, some manufacturers already have plans to adjust their prices ; The natural gas methanol plant is operating normally; supported by the restart of the acetic acid plant, the demand for methanol for internal use has increased, prompting manufacturers to raise prices slightly. The prevailing price range is 1650–1700 yuan per ton, and sales are performing well. The market trading atmosphere improved during the week; sellers were more optimistic about demand after the holiday and raised their prices slightly. The prevailing price range was 1,500–1,700 yuan per ton, with transactions taking place at mid-to-low levels. The methanol market in Liaoning has been driven up by rising delivery prices; the mainstream price range is 1,800–1,850 yuan per ton, with modest trading volume. Market Overview: Against the backdrop of ongoing shutdowns and production restrictions in methanol plants, market supply levels have gradually declined. However, after the Spring Festival, some downstream factories resumed operations to purchase materials, which helped to boost trading activity. Additionally, after experiencing significant drops, methanol prices abroad are showing signs of stabilizing. All these factors have provided support for the domestic methanol market, contributing to an improvement in market conditions. However, whether it can maintain steady progress will depend on the recovery of demand and the volume of low-priced imported methanol arriving. Due to ongoing uncertainties, the outlook remains unclear; as a result, the methanol market is expected to continue fluctuating at low levels in the short term, with limited room for gains or losses.