Shell CEO: Oil prices will remain low in the coming year
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This post was last edited by jordan569 on 2013-1-6 at 22:44. On February 14, oil prices in the New York market closed at $35.94 per barrel; prices have dropped by 19% so far this year, and they are down by more than 75% from their peak levels last year. Regarding the trend of international oil prices, some optimists believe that they will soon reach $80 per barrel. However, Royal Dutch Shell’s CEO, Bollore, thinks that oil prices will remain low in the coming year. Royal Dutch Shell is the largest oil company in Europe, ranking third among the world’s top 500 companies in 2008. Its current CEO is Jorma Ollila, the founder of the Nokia communications empire. Appointed in 2006 following a series of scandals at Shell, he took on this role at a critical moment and simultaneously served as chairman of the boards of both Shell and Nokia, becoming a legend in the global business world. Regarding the future trend of international oil prices, Ollila said, “Oil prices are very difficult to predict.” It can be said that over the next 12 months, there will be a strong force driving oil prices down, due to the economic recession and the expectation that demand for gasoline in the United States and other places will remain at lower levels in the long term. But at the same time, in the long run, there will inevitably be pressures that drive demand to increase gradually, causing oil prices to return to a higher level. ”He also predicted that over the next 2 to 3 years, oil prices would fluctuate between $40 and $90. In addition to falling demand, what concerns oil companies is the emergence of alternative energy sources. Ollila predicts that by 2050, alternative energy sources could account for 50% of the total. As international oil prices plummeted starting from the second half of last year, profits at major global oil companies dropped sharply; Shell recorded a quarterly loss for the first time in 10 years in the fourth quarter of last year. To this end, Shell sent an email to its employees recently, stating that it needs higher cash reserves this year; as a result, it must implement a series of cost-cutting measures, including reducing the number of contractors, cutting down on the use of consultants, and limiting travel expenses. Ollila explained this by saying, “In such a recession, it’s necessary to have countermeasures; once the recession ends, one can recover as quickly as possible and emerge as a winner.” ” . Note $ # , $ $
China’s first industry coordination body for the coal chemical industry – the Coordination Committee for New Coal Chemicals of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association – will be established. A reporter from China Chemical Industry News recently interviewed Li Yongwu, president of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, on related issues. Reporter: What is the concept of new coal chemical industry? Li Yongwu: The new type of coal chemical industry refers to an energy-related chemical industry that takes coal gasification as its core and carbon-based chemistry as its foundation, aiming to produce products that can replace petrochemical products and fuel oils. Its scope mainly includes methanol, chemical products produced from methanol, alcohol-ether fuels made from methanol, olefins produced from methanol, oil produced from coal, and cogeneration. Reporter: What was the background that led to the establishment of the New Coal Chemical Industry Coordination Committee? Li Yongwu: As China’s petroleum and chemical industry develops rapidly, it is facing multiple pressures related to resources, energy, and the environment. Given China’s resource profile of a shortage of oil and natural gas but relatively abundant coal, the petroleum and chemical industry should take into account national conditions, leverage its strengths while addressing its weaknesses, carry out structural adjustments in terms of industries, products, and raw materials, and pursue a development path based on diversification of resources and energy sources. The rapid development of the new coal chemical industry has played an important role in alleviating the supply and demand imbalance of energy sources such as oil and natural gas in China, adjusting the energy structure, and promoting the growth of related industries such as chemicals, steel, light industry, and agriculture. However, alongside the rapid development of the coal chemical industry, some concerning issues have emerged, such as the appropriation of coal resources under the pretext of building coal chemical projects ； Some engage in low-level repetitive construction without regard for the carrying capacity of resources, ecology, and the environment, showing signs of blind development ； Some blindly pursue foreign technologies in their technical choices, leading to repeated introductions of the same ones ； Some lack standardized management of foreign investment in attracting investments. The existence of these problems will have a negative impact on the sustainable, healthy, and steady development of our country’s economy and society; it is therefore urgent for industry organizations to carry out coordination under the guidance of **relevant departments and** industrial policies. To this end, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association has decided to establish a Coordination Committee for New Coal Chemical Industries. Reporter: What is the purpose of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association in establishing a coal chemical industry coordination body? Li Yongwu: The coal chemical industry is an important part of the chemical industry, encompassing sectors such as coal coking, coal gasification, coal liquefaction, and the further processing of coal into various products. It includes items produced from coal as raw material, such as calcium carbide, fertilizers, methanol, dimethyl ether, olefins, and petroleum products. Due to the long product and industrial chains in the coal chemical industry, which covers areas such as coal coking, fertilizers, organic raw materials, and petroleum products within the oil and chemical sector, and which also overlaps with industries such as coal, steel, and electricity outside this sector, coordinating activities within this industry is quite challenging. From an industrial perspective, the organic chemical raw materials and products developed in coal chemistry, as well as the technologies related to production processes such as reaction, separation, and catalysis, fall under the category of the chemical industry. As the only comprehensive association in the entire industry that possesses certain management functions, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association has the responsibility and duty to coordinate and regulate the development of the coal chemical industry. Based on the current development trends in the industry as well as the suggestions from domestic organizations engaged in the production, research, and design of new coal chemical technologies, and following thorough investigations, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association has decided to establish a Coordination Committee for New Coal Chemical Technologies. This committee will help guide the coal chemical industry in implementing relevant industrial policies, and will undertake tasks related to organization, coordination, and support for the development of this industry. It will also assist in strengthening the management of key coal chemical projects, including those involving coal-to-olefins, methanol, dimethyl ether, and coal-to-oil processes, thereby promoting a more scientific, sustainable, and orderly development of the coal chemical industry. Reporter: What organizational and coordination efforts has the association carried out in recent years for the coal chemical industry? Li Yongwu: In recent years, the Petrochemical Association has assisted ** in effectively organizing and coordinating a range of coal-based chemical products such as methanol, acetic acid, and dimethyl ether ； Research, development, promotion, and application of processes and technologies such as water-coal slurry gasification and pulverized coal gasification, methanol carbonylation for acetic acid production, methanol production as a by-product of ammonia synthesis, and two-step processes for dimethyl ether production were organized ； Organized and coordinated the research, development, production, as well as promotion and application of alcohol-ether fuels; assisted in formulating standards for such fuels, and helped to foster and advance the development of the industry related to alcohol-ether fuels ； Activities related to research, production, construction, import and export, as well as statistics in the coal chemical industry were carried out ； Experts were organized to conduct investigations into the problems arising in the development of the coal chemical industry; they reported on these issues to the relevant authorities on multiple occasions and put forward corresponding policy recommendations, which received great attention from the leaders and relevant departments. The association has been keeping a close track of technological advancements in coal gasification, coal-to-oil conversion, coal-to-olefins production, as well as methanol and dimethyl ether production. Since 2004, expert evaluations have been conducted on various technologies, including Shenhua Group’s process for direct coal liquefaction (direct oil production), Shanghai Yankuang Energy Technology Development Co., Ltd.’s process for indirect coal liquefaction via low-temperature Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (indirect oil production), the multi-nozzle opposed water-coal slurry gasification technology developed through collaboration between East China University of Science and Technology and Yankuang Group, and the DMTO technology for producing low-carbon olefins developed jointly by the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Sinopec Luoyang Petrochemical Engineering Company, and Shaanxi Xinxing Coal Chemical Technology Development Company. Recommendations were also provided regarding the construction of industrial demonstration plants for these technologies. The association has been assisting **in conducting research on the technical development plans for the coal chemical industry as well as on building innovation capabilities. In 2007, the association completed a strategic research project on industry policies for modern coal chemical engineering, and proposed the establishment of three **engineering laboratories** in the field of new coal chemical technologies, namely those for methanol-to-olefins, direct coal-to-oil, and indirect coal-to-oil conversion; these proposals were approved by the **National Development and Reform Commission**. In 2008, the association carried out a research project on the plan for local production of coal chemical technology and equipment, as arranged by the National Development and Reform Commission. Reporter: What are the purposes and responsibilities of the New Coal Chemical Industry Coordination Committee? Li Yongwu: As an internal coordination body of the Petrochemical Association, this organization will assist the relevant department in guiding, organizing, coordinating, and providing services for the development of the coal chemical industry. It will offer support to entities engaged in research and production in this field, acting as a bridge and link between these entities and enterprises, thereby promoting a more scientific, healthy, and orderly development of the coal chemical industry. The responsibilities of this organization mainly include assisting in formulating development plans for the coal chemical industry, as well as plans for scientific and technological development and industrial policies; it also involves researching and coordinating major issues related to the industry’s development, providing suggestions and recommendations to relevant authorities and the industry itself, and offering support for the formulation of development plans and policies ； Actively conduct research on industry development trends and key issues to promote the healthy growth of the industry ； Act as a bridge between ** and enterprises, actively coordinating and facilitating the implementation of coal chemical industry plans and policies; focusing on providing support for the development and construction of major coal chemical projects such as coal-to-olefins demonstration projects, large-scale coal-to-methanol and dimethyl ether plants, and coal-to-oil projects with production capacities of millions of tons ； Coordinate and integrate industry resources, establish platforms for industry-university-research collaboration, promote key common and advanced technologies, advance the development and industrialization of major equipment, and give priority to promoting newly developed independent innovation technologies such as new coal gasification methods, new methanol synthesis methods, dimethyl ether synthesis, and methanol-to-olefins processes ； Improve the quality of coal chemical products, advance the construction of industrial demonstration facilities for proprietary technologies, and achieve the engineering application of key coal chemical technologies as well as an increase in production scale ； Establish a system for industry technological innovation to enhance the industry’s capacity for independent innovation, etc.
With an economic recession, reduced demand, and an oversupply, oil prices are bound to fall! But fossil fuels are limited; once the economy improves, oil prices will inevitably rise!
"In addition to falling demand, what concerns oil companies is the emergence of alternative energy sources. Ollila predicts that by 2050, alternative energy sources could account for 50% of the total. " For those of us in the chemical industry, what I’m most looking forward to is the emergence of alternative energy sources. This means that we will have new projects to design and put into operation, which will create more job opportunities. Production will become more efficient, the economy will grow, and more importantly, science will advance. Of course, new energy sources must be energy-saving and efficient. The economic crisis has caused widespread anxiety, leaving investors and business owners on edge, at risk of going bankrupt at the slightest mistake. I hope the situation can be reversed soon; let’s work together!
Oil prices are fluctuating and are influenced by various factors