Domestic petrochemical industry's prosperity may reverse in 2009

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Business News reported on February 17 that the profits of the three major domestic oil companies in 2008 are expected to drop by 30%. Industry insiders pointed out that there is a clear positive correlation between the profitability of petrochemical companies and crude oil prices. The weak global economy in 2008 led to a decline in energy demand, triggering a sharp decline in international crude oil prices and a decline in profits of the three major domestic oil companies. Affected by the continued decline in oil prices, the prosperity of the petrochemical industry may reverse in 2009. 　　China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association recently released the 2008 analysis report. It is estimated that the industry-wide profits in 2008 will be 499 billion yuan, down 10% from 2007. Among them, the profits of the three major oil companies will be 222.8 billion yuan, down 31.3% from 2007. The ten-year growth of the petrochemical industry has turned downward. 　　Zheng Zhiguo, an analyst at Shenyin Wanguo, told Shihua Financial News that judging from historical data, the profits of the petrochemical industry and companies are obviously positively correlated with crude oil prices. International oil prices have fallen by 70% since the second half of 2008, and the profits of oil and gas companies' upstream exploration have declined significantly with oil prices. However, due to the rigidity of exploration costs, it is expected that there is little room for oil prices to fall at the US$50 level. It is expected that crude oil prices may rebound within 3-6 months. The oil prices in 2008, 2009 and 2010 are judged to be US$100, US$70 and US$73/barrel. Affected by the fall in oil prices, the petrochemical industry's business cycle will decline in 2009. 　　According to a report from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, the industry's main business revenue from January to November 2008 was 6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.14%. ； Total profit was 466.655 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1% ； The loss was 15.3%, with a loss of 211.91 billion yuan. Among them, the refining industry lost 149.26 billion yuan, while the profit in the same period in 2007 was 10.78 billion yuan. 　　Zheng Zhiguo pointed out that although the prosperity of the petrochemical industry may reverse in 2009, the domestic oil refining industry is expected to achieve reasonable profits. Under the new pricing mechanism, although * * The risk of regulation still exists, but the possibility of an extreme rise in oil prices is unlikely, and refined oil prices are expected to follow changes in international oil prices. It is estimated that the reasonable refining gross profit of Sinopec and PetroChina is roughly US$5.5-6/barrel. After deducting the processing cost of about US$4, the EBIT (earnings before interest and tax) of a barrel of oil is US$1.5-2/barrel. It is estimated that the total EBIT that can be achieved by Sinopec's refining and sales in 2009 is about 40 billion yuan, and that of PetroChina is about 25 billion yuan.