Are there still advantages to developing methanol and dimethyl ether in our country at present?
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After six years of high growth, high demand, and high profits, China’s methanol industry saw its domestic market plunge to rock bottom in the second half of 2008. The vast majority of methanol manufacturers were forced to reduce production or shut down due to the high costs resulting from high coal prices. By February 2009, the overall operational rate of domestic methanol companies was less than 30%. Moreover, the influx of low-cost imported methanol into the Chinese market further compounded the difficulties faced by many local methanol producers. Does our country still have advantages in the development of methanol at present? Are there no opportunities in the face of a crisis? Why do I feel so disheartened? This post was last edited by zhaomingucg on 2009-2-18 16:46.]
There is definitely no advantage at the moment, as the price of methanol is only 1,900 yuan per ton. However, the industry should view this issue from a developmental perspective; research on new process technologies for methanol downstream applications is key to solving this problem.
Hehe, the production of methanol from coke oven gas in our company is still very popular right now!
There are still significant advantages right now~ The projects that need to be carried out must still be done. Oil is at its lowest level currently, so everything is cheap. No matter which country it is, **if they want their economies to recover quickly, oil prices will rise. If oil prices go up, will methanol still cost 1,900 per ton? ? How can I stop thinking only about the present in the future? Aren’t all companies other than Shenhua still constantly trying to launch new projects these days? It’s the same principle: Shenhua uses its own coal to produce methanol; don’t other companies also need to buy coal? Coal costs 400 per ton; by converting 3 tons of coal into 1 ton of methanol, the cost is only 1200. There’s still a profit of 700 left. I don’t want to say more – it’s just my personal opinion, haha
Under the current economic conditions, **it is necessary to formulate appropriate policies.
Relying on the inherent laws of the market for regulation, structural optimization, and resource integration is the ultimate solution.
International oil prices have now dropped to levels seen at the beginning of 2005, but the weak global economic situation continues to prevent prices from rising. However, in the long term, the current low oil prices are not the prevailing trend for international oil prices, as the overall trend for them is upward. Ronald Stöferle, an oil analyst at Erste Group Bank in Austria, pointed out that although international oil prices are currently low, the era of cheap oil has in effect come to an end; over the next 3 to 5 years, international oil prices could very well soar to $200 per barrel. The limit period for global oil extraction has arrived. Stoffer pointed out that for some time now, no large oil fields with abundant reserves and easy to extract have been discovered worldwide, which is a sign that oil resources are running out. During this period, the production capacity of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which is an important group of oil producers, has also basically reached its limit; in fact, the oil production of 6 of its member countries may even have already exceeded that limit. Declining investment enthusiasm in the oil industry It is estimated that to meet the demands of the international oil market, global oil production per day will need to increase from the current level of 86 million barrels to 125 million barrels by 2030. However, since the beginning of this year, international oil prices have remained around $40 per barrel. This price is clearly too low to attract investment in oil development. Reports indicate that many investment plans related to the oil industry have been postponed or even canceled. The existing level of investment is even less than 20% of the investment required to increase oil production in the future. The result of reduced investment is inevitably a lack of momentum in industries such as oil exploration, extraction, processing, and transportation, which creates risks of a global oil supply shortage in the future. Stoffer believes that the longer oil prices remain below $40 per barrel, the sooner a shortage of oil supply will occur. An energy source that can truly replace oil has not yet appeared. Oil has become humanity’s primary energy source at present. Although people have been searching for alternative energy sources to replace oil, neither nuclear energy nor natural energies such as water, wind, and solar power, nor renewable sources like biogas and firewood, has yet reached a level that allows it to truly replace oil as the main energy source for humanity. Stoffel believes that humanity has not yet found any alternative energy sources that can truly replace fossil fuels, and will not find such sources for at least a considerable length of time. This determines that, on the one hand, oil resources are gradually depleting, while on the other hand, their role as an energy source will remain irreplaceable at least in the foreseeable future. The monopoly over oil supply is increasing. Over the past decade or so, driven by certain interests, private oil companies have invested less money in oil exploration and extraction, opting instead to use that capital for stock repurchases or dividends. In 2007, the funds spent by the world’s five largest private oil companies on stock repurchases accounted for 34% of their total operating costs, compared to just 1% in 1994. Meanwhile, the proportion of investment in oil exploration by the five major private oil companies dropped from 14% to 6%. The insufficient investment by large private oil companies in oil exploration is leading to a decrease in the oil reserves under their control, which in turn strengthens the market monopoly held by state-owned oil companies. Currently, over 83% of the world’s oil reserves are controlled by state-owned oil companies. With no new large oil fields being discovered, the world’s oil supply is becoming increasingly dependent on the existing major oil-producing regions. As oil resources dwindle, oil-producing regions are becoming increasingly concentrated. From the perspective of oil supply security, this trend of centralization is not encouraging. The ability of oil producers to influence the market is growing. Currently, OPEC controls around 40% of the world’s oil market, which gives it a significant impact on international oil prices. It adheres to production limits to maintain prices, with the current target price being $75 per barrel. To maintain a certain oil price level, OPEC will undoubtedly continue to cut production. Oil analysts generally estimate that OPEC will further reduce oil production quotas in the coming year and next, with the total daily reduction potentially reaching 2 million barrels. At the OPEC ministers’ meeting to be held in March this year, a decision may be made to reduce production by at least 1 million barrels. Stoffer estimates that, in addition to OPEC, Russia, Mexico, and the North Sea oil fields will also reduce production. Based on this, he predicts that the average international oil price this year will be $55 per barrel, but if there is a sustained economic recovery, prices could exceed $70. However, given the depletion of international oil resources, the fact that the extraction capacity of most oil-producing countries is approaching or has already reached its limits, rising oil production costs, insufficient subsequent investment, and an increasing monopoly over oil resources, Stöfler believes that international oil prices will inevitably rise in the future, and this will not happen too soon
In the long run, there are still advantages; we should maintain confidence