China’s Energy Future in a Low-Carbon Economy

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　As climate change becomes increasingly recognized, the international community’s shared willingness to address it grows stronger, and a low-carbon future has become an important direction for social and economic development. 　　Opportunities in a low-carbon economy \"China places a lot of emphasis on GDP, but it should not be forgotten that GDP is just one of the dozen or so indicators that reflect living standards.\" ”Jiang Kejun, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said. 　　“Currently, a low-carbon economy is becoming popular. What is a low-carbon economy? Does China have no chance of becoming a low-carbon economy? ”Jiang has his own analysis of the low-carbon economy; from the perspective of urban development, low carbon means that if we achieve the best results in terms of infrastructure development, economic structure, and technology utilization, then we can consider it a low-carbon approach. 　　However, it is quite difficult to enable China to reach a developed, low-carbon economic level, said Jiang Kejun. For China to attain the low-carbon levels of Europe, its steel production must be reduced. But since China needs to continue developing, its steel production will have to be maintained for another ten to twenty years. Even if it remains at 600 million tons, the carbon dioxide emissions per ton will stay the same, so no significant changes will occur. 　　“If carbon dioxide emissions are reduced to the greatest extent possible based on domestic capabilities, it can also be defined as a low-carbon economy. ”Jiang said that for developing countries, if the definition of a low-carbon economy is set too high, it is simply unattainable. 　　“We are now more inclined to study the benefits of a low-carbon economy; in the past, we focused on identifying the challenges and difficulties associated with it. In fact, there are many opportunities within a low-carbon economy. ” 　　According to data from the International Emissions Trading Association, the value of transactions in the carbon trading market exceeded 70 billion dollars in 2007. In 2006, the total value of global carbon emission trading was 28 billion dollars, with a trading volume of 1.3 billion tons. At the same time, according to statistics, the average price of carbon emission rights in developing countries in Asia is around ten euros per ton, while in the European trading markets the current price is 30 euros per ton. 　　Furthermore, at present, China holds the largest share of United Nations-approved certified emission reductions in the world, accounting for about 40% of the global total. Under the international Clean Development Mechanism, those with obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions **can purchase carbon emission rights from developing countries**, and as a result, China is highly likely to become the world’s largest carbon trading market. 　　Energy landscape under low-carbon energy \"In today’s world, few developed countries have an economic development model that relies on high energy consumption; they generally maintain a relatively high level in terms of their energy structure.\" ”Jiang Kejun said. 　　In the energy landscape that will characterize future world development, coal consumption will gradually decline as part of final energy use, while new forms of energy such as wind and nuclear energy will increasingly take a dominant role. This shift is already becoming evident in developed countries, where coal usage is seeing a noticeable decrease in their final energy consumption. 　　“From 2010 to 2020, China’s coal consumption will show no significant increase. ”Jiang Kejun said that during 2006–2007, China added 100 million kilowatts of generating capacity each year, of which 70%-80% was coal-fired power; whereas between 2010 and 2020, the annual addition of coal-fired generating capacity was only between 10 million and 20 million kilowatts. 　　“The three major power generation groups in China that will be affected by this are Shanghai Electric, Harbin Electric, and Dongfang Electric; they will either refuse to accept this trend or seek new sales channels. ”Jiang analyzed that the future development trends of China’s power system indicate that nuclear power will enter a period of significant growth, while coal-fired power will face restrictions. 　　“However, China’s consumption of coal as part of final energy use continues to rise, and the ongoing expansion of energy-intensive products keeps demand for coal on the increase. ”Jiang Kejun said that after the economic crisis hit, **stimulus was directed at infrastructure industries such as energy-intensive sectors like cement and steel. 　　Efforts from top to bottom The ways to achieve a low-carbon economy include adjusting the economy toward an industrial structure that is energy-efficient and consumes less energy ； Fully advance energy utilization technologies, and widely promote advanced and efficient technologies through various policy measures ； Develop renewable energy and nuclear power in a comprehensive and rational manner, so that they occupy an important role in primary energy sources ； Everyone should get involved, change their lifestyle, and adopt consumption patterns that result in low carbon emissions ； Jiang Kejun said that it is necessary to develop low-carbon agriculture and improve forest coverage and management. 　　Assuming China’s GDP continues to grow rapidly, by 2030 China will successfully become the country with the largest GDP in the world. However, the economic structure must change; “it is no longer a question of whether to make adjustments or not, but rather it is necessary.” ” 　　In its efforts to develop a low-carbon economy, China has introduced numerous relevant policies, such as domestic energy conservation and emission reduction measures, as well as the series of energy development policies issued since the end of 1996. 　 Jiang believes that the path for China’s development in the future lies in optimizing the industrial structure, controlling the growth of energy-intensive industries, and reducing and regulating the export of energy-intensive products ； Strive to bring the energy technological efficiency of China’s industry to the world’s advanced level by around 2025 ； We should vigorously develop the use of renewable energy technologies; for instance, wind power and hydroelectric power need to be further promoted on a large scale, while solar thermal and photovoltaic power generation technologies should be put into demonstration at a level close to commercial application ； Vigorously develop nuclear power on a comprehensive basis, with a focus on advanced third- and fourth-generation nuclear technologies ； Carry out widespread public awareness campaigns to make a low-carbon lifestyle a common practice among people. 　　“During this economic crisis, we sometimes feel particularly frustrated. When the economy is doing well, it might still be possible to consider environmental issues, but this time, the economy must definitely come first. ”Jiang Kejun said. 　　“However, the central government is also working on how to utilize these 4 trillion yuan; it is carefully examining various regions to see how they plan to spend this amount and where exactly it will be used. The goal is to inform local authorities that if they want to use funds, they should do so within the framework of these policies. Although you are recovering your economy, you must also pursue low-carbon practices at the same time. ” 　　“It is hoped that China’s industrial sector will take this opportunity to make its manufacturing industry the world’s most advanced in certain fields. ”Jiang Kejun said that only on this premise can China do better.