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my country's oil and gas industry review and outlook in 2008

2009-02-18View Original

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 In 2008, international oil prices experienced ups and downs. A drop of US$100 caused pain to the oil and gas industry, and the global economy continued to decline amid the fog of oil prices.   The global oil and gas industry is going through a storm, but does it mean that the entire industry is headed for recession? On February 4, reporters learned from the National Energy Work Conference that my country's oil and gas industry still achieved steady development despite the global economic downturn in 2008. ; The meeting predicted that in 2009, my country's oil and gas industry will shake off the economic gloom and continue to maintain a sustained growth momentum.   Oil consumption is growing rapidly, and oil import and export trade is active. Judging from the overall crude oil production trend in 2008, domestic crude oil production was affected to a certain extent in the first half of the year, especially in the second quarter, due to factors such as losses in domestic crude oil processing and VAT refund benefits for processing imported oil. In the first half of the year, crude oil production increased by 1.7% year-on-year, while in the second quarter, crude oil production increased by only 0.8% year-on-year. In the second half of the year, domestic crude oil processing profits increased and crude oil production growth picked up. In 2008, crude oil output was 189 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.07%.   In 2008, domestic oil demand still maintained rapid growth, but market demand varied greatly in each quarter of the year. In 2008, my country's apparent oil consumption reached 389.65 million tons, an increase of 23.95 million tons or 6.5% over 2007, and an increase of 1.7% over 2007. Oil dependence on foreign countries was 51.3%, an increase of 0.8% from 50.5% in 2007.   Affected by various factors such as the global financial crisis, international oil price fluctuations, extreme natural disasters, and domestic macroeconomic control policies, the domestic oil market experienced relatively large fluctuations in 2008, showing the following characteristics: First, oil demand was very unbalanced throughout the year. There was a tight supply of oil products in the first half of the year, but the market softened in the second half of the year. On a quarterly basis, oil demand in the second quarter was the largest of the year, with apparent oil consumption reaching 100.44 million tons, and then declining quarter by quarter. Second, the supply of refined oil products still maintains rapid growth, but the growth rate has slowed down, and the growth in coastal areas and inland areas is unbalanced. Third, oil imports continue to grow rapidly, with foreign dependence exceeding 50%.   According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, my country imported a total of 218.53 million tons of petroleum (including fuel oil) in 2008, an increase of 21.56 million tons or 10.9% over 2007. Among them, a total of 178.88 million tons of crude oil were imported throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 15.71 million tons or 9.6%. During the same period, a total of 18.68 million tons of oil were exported. Imports and exports were balanced, with net oil imports for the year reaching 199.85 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.28 million tons, or 12.55%.   In 2008, my country's annual average crude oil import price was US$723.03 per ton, an increase of US$234.1, or 47.9%, from US$488.9 in 2007. The average export price of crude oil was US$716 per ton, an increase of US$282.3 or 65.1% compared with 2007. The average import price of refined oil products was US$358.98 per ton, a decrease of US$127.3 from US$486.3 in 2007, a decrease of 26.2%. The average export price of refined oil products was US$802 per ton, an increase of US$212.1, or 36%, from US$589.9 in 2007.   In 2008, 50% of my country's imported crude oil came from the Middle East, with import volume of 89.7 million tons, an increase of 16.96 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 23.3%. ; Followed by Africa, import volume was 53.95 million tons (accounting for 30%), an increase of 900,000 tons, an increase of 1.7% ; Imports from Europe and the Western Hemisphere were 30.25 million tons (accounting for 16.9%), a decrease of 1.38 million tons or 4.4%. ; The Asia-Pacific region imported 4.98 million tons (accounting for 2.8%), a decrease of 760,000 tons or 13%. import * * Among them, the top five importers are Saudi Arabia (36.37 million tons), Angola (29.89 million tons), Iran (21.32 million tons), Oman (14.58 million tons), and Russia (11.64 million tons).   Natural gas production and consumption are growing strongly, and the market prospects are broad. In recent years, my country's natural gas consumption has grown strongly. From 2000 to 2008, natural gas consumption showed rapid growth. In 2000, the national natural gas consumption was 24.5 billion cubic meters and reached 72 billion cubic meters in 2008, with an average growth rate of 14.4%.   With the further improvement of natural gas infrastructure, the natural gas consumption market has rapidly expanded from areas surrounding oil and gas fields to economically developed areas. exist * * Under the guidance of natural gas utilization policies, the consumption structure is also constantly optimized.   Before 2000, due to restrictions on transmission pipelines, my country's natural gas consumption market was limited to areas around oil and gas fields, and natural gas utilization was mainly for industrial fuels and chemicals. In 2000, of the total natural gas consumption in the country, industrial fuel and chemical gas accounted for 78.3%, urban gas accounted for 17.6%, and gas-fired power generation accounted for 4.1%.   With the completion and commissioning of long-distance pipelines such as the West-East Gas Pipeline, Shaanxi-Beijing Second Line, Zhongwu Line, and Seninglan, gas-consuming areas have rapidly shifted to economically developed coastal markets, and the consumption structure has also changed. Urban gas and power generation gas have increased significantly, while industrial fuels and chemical raw materials have gradually decreased.   Looking forward to the future of the oil and gas industry, challenges and opportunities coexist. In 2009, the international financial crisis will continue to spread and spread, world economic growth will continue to slow down, international crude oil prices may fluctuate at low levels, and the growth rate of domestic crude oil demand will also slow down. This is both a challenge and an opportunity for my country's oil and gas industry.   According to the estimates of the future trend of my country's economy by domestic and foreign authoritative institutions and economists, my country's economic growth is likely to continue to decline in the first and second quarters of 2009, and may pick up in the third quarter. The growth rate is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter, and the annual economic growth rate is expected to reach 8%. Therefore, my country's oil demand is expected to continue to grow in 2009, but the growth rate has dropped significantly.   From the perspective of the international oil market, it is difficult for the global economy to get out of the trough in the short term. Major institutions and authorities around the world generally believe that international oil demand and price trends will continue to be affected by the economic downturn in 2009, and the average international oil price for the whole year is expected to be lower than that of 2008. However, as international oil prices have now fallen below US$40 per barrel, the impetus for further declines has weakened.   Facing the new situation, * * The Energy Bureau proposed that the overall idea of ​​​​oil and gas work in 2009 is: Study seriously * Practice the scientific outlook on development, continue to emancipate the mind, adhere to reform and opening up, coordinate both domestic and international situations, strengthen strategic thinking and institutional innovation, seize opportunities and meet challenges, ensure that domestic oil continues to grow steadily and natural gas production grows rapidly, further improve the strategic layout of oil and gas supply, establish and improve emergency safety systems, and promote the scientific development of the oil and gas industry.   to this end, * * The Energy Administration requires that we continue to do a good job in oil and gas planning, strengthen policy research and regulatory construction, promote institutional innovation and scientific and technological progress, insist on increasing resource exploration, strive to achieve stability in the east, accelerate development in the west, and ensure that domestic crude oil production is stable and rising, and natural gas production is growing rapidly. Continue to regard the natural gas industry as an important starting point for my country to transform its development model, promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure, and build an environment-friendly society. We will continue to improve the natural gas pipeline network and gas storage and peak-shaving methods, and actively promote liquefied natural gas projects. Continue to plan and build a number of key oil and gas pipelines, promote international oil and gas cooperation, improve the reserve system, and strive to build a safe, stable, economical and reliable oil and gas supply system.

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