Melamine prices have bottomed out; there is still room for further increases

Thread Content

After a period of continuous decline and operation at low levels, the domestic melamine market began to recover from its trough following the Spring Festival. Currently, the ex-factory price of melamine is mostly between 7,300 and 7,700 yuan per ton (the same applies below), while the wholesale price in the market is generally between 7,400 and 7,800 yuan. Compared to before the Spring Festival, there has been an increase of around 200 yuan ； The export quotes are mostly between $1,050 and $1,150 ； There is also a rise of 20-50 dollars ； At the same time, market activity has increased, with more inquiries and inventory levels rising, while manufacturers’ stock levels are declining rapidly. There are three main reasons for the recent improvement in the melamine market: first, the impact of the overall market environment. Judging from the overall economic situation in our country at present, it has emerged from the most difficult period and is gradually showing signs of improvement. Compared to the lowest prices in December last year, steel prices have risen by 300 yuan or more; the prices of non-ferrous metals have increased by over 1,000 yuan. Moreover, the prices of almost all chemical raw materials have emerged from their lows. Against this backdrop, it is only logical for the price of melamine to rise as well. Second, the attitude of dealers has improved. Although the operating rate of the downstream sheet industry is not yet very high at present, dealers’ attitudes have improved significantly compared to before the Spring Festival; some dealers have begun to stock up proactively, resulting in a noticeable increase in market demand. Third is the rise in the price of raw material urea. After the Spring Festival, the urea market experienced a noticeable upward trend. Currently, the ex-factory price of urea is around 1,800 yuan; compared to before the festival, prices in most markets have risen by 50–150 yuan, with some increases exceeding 200 yuan. Melamine is primarily produced from urea, and rising urea prices contribute to an increase in melamine prices. Looking ahead, melamine still has some room for price increases, as its current price is generally on the low side. However, the extent of this increase depends mainly on two factors: one is the operating status and demand in the downstream sheet industry ； Second is the export situation: currently, there are more inquiries for melamine exports, but due to the large price difference between the two sides, not many actual transactions have taken place yet. Reposted from: http://www.16ds.com/papers/154/topics/5506