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Market commentary on methanol on February 25: Overseas market: On February 24, the CFR China main port price of methanol in the Asian market closed at $197–198 per ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day； CFR Southeast Asia: $168–170 per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day ； Closing prices of methanol in European and American markets: FD U.S. Gulf at 47–48 cents per gallon, unchanged from the previous trading day ； FOB Rotterdam: 124.50–125.50 euros per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Domestic market: In the Shandong region, the selling price of methanol is around 1850–1930 yuan per ton, with another drop of 20–50 yuan per ton compared to yesterday. Manufacturers say that there has been average demand from downstream buyers recently, and there are no significant changes in sales volumes; buyers are purchasing smaller quantities, leading to a slight decline in sales momentum. In the East China region, the current negotiation price for methanol is between 1,750 and 1,830 yuan per ton, with transactions at the lower end of this range. There has been a high volume of shipments arriving at the port recently, and more ships will arrive to unload cargo in the future; buyers are adopting a cautious attitude ； In the Jiangsu region, transaction prices range between 1,750 and 1,780 yuan per ton, down by 20–100 yuan per ton compared to yesterday. Sales activity in the port areas is relatively slow, with buyers showing little interest in making purchases; this sluggish situation is likely to continue in the short term. In the Henan region, the current mainstream pricing for methanol is around 1,800–1,900 yuan per ton; the lower-end prices have dropped by 100 yuan per ton compared to yesterday, with some transactions taking place at slightly lower prices. Affected by the continuous decline in other regions of the country, local sales volume has decreased slightly. Retailers are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, while sellers remain relatively calm and optimistic about future market conditions. In South China, the current bid price for methanol is 1,790–1,850 yuan per ton, while the prevailing transaction prices are around 1,750–1,800 yuan per ton. Local production facilities are not operating at full capacity, inventory levels in port areas are somewhat high, and downstream buyers’ intentions are not clear; as a result, buyers are adopting a cautious attitude. It is expected that the market will remain stable in the coming period. Quotations from methanol producers in the Northeast region have stabilized, ranging around 2,000–2,200 yuan per ton, with transaction prices being slightly lower. Since the beginning of this week, methanol prices have remained stable before declining, with prices fluctuating slightly in various regions. Although the operating rates of downstream plants have increased significantly, purchasing interest remains low. It is difficult for local companies to ship their products; sellers tend to wait and see, with a relatively positive attitude toward future market conditions. The negotiation atmosphere in the methanol market in Hebei region is relatively weak, with prices falling slightly in some areas. At present, the prices at which manufacturers in the Shijiazhuang area sell their products range mainly between 2,000 and 2,050 yuan per ton; the prices for high-end products are slightly lower by about 50 yuan per ton. Sales from factories are relatively slow, with fewer transactions for high-end products ； In the areas of Dingzhou and Xingtai, the negotiation prices range from 1,950 to 2,000 yuan per ton. I’ve heard that in the Zhangjiakou area, traders are now able to sell at prices as low as 1,900 yuan per ton, which is a decrease of 50 yuan per ton compared to the beginning of the week. The prevailing negotiation prices in Hebei range from 1,930 to 2,030 yuan per ton, down by 20 to 70 yuan per ton compared to yesterday; it is expected that these prices will remain stable in the coming period. The prevailing negotiation prices for methanol in the Shanxi region have dropped again, ranging at 1,650–1,700 yuan per ton, representing a decrease of 50–100 yuan per ton. Local plants are shutting down frequently, with only a few companies continuing to operate at reduced capacity. Although there is a slight shortage of supply and demand from downstream sectors is low, overall transaction volumes remain weak. According to relevant experts, the decline in prices has been quite limited due to cost factors, so it is expected that prices will gradually stabilize in the coming period. In North China, the current prevailing price for methanol is around 1,700–2,000 yuan per ton, down by 50–100 yuan per ton compared to yesterday. In Hebei, the negotiation prices range from 1,930–2,030 yuan per ton, with a decrease of 20–70 yuan per ton compared to the previous day. Business activity related to sales is relatively weak, and the atmosphere in terms of negotiations is negative ； The current price in the Shanxi region is between 1,650 and 1,700 yuan per ton, with a decline of 50–100 yuan per ton. Local production facilities are operating at low levels, and downstream purchases are also limited. It is expected that there won’t be much further decline in prices, so the short-term outlook is stable. Recently, trading in the southwestern methanol market has been sluggish, with prices remaining stable within a narrow range. Due to tight natural gas supplies, the operating rates of methanol plants remain low. Among the large-scale methanol facilities in the region, those owned by Sichuan Lutianhua and Sichuan Jiangyou are currently shut down. Sichuan Lutianhua plans to restart its facility on April 15 this year; there are no updates regarding the restart of the other facilities. In the Chongqing area, the two methanol plants with a combined capacity of 350,000 tons are also operating at limited levels, with manufacturers using some of the production for their own needs and having limited capacity for export. Currently, the mainstream ex-plant price of methanol in Sichuan and Chongqing is between 1,800 and 1,850 yuan per ton. Low-priced supplies from other regions continue to attract buyers’ attention. Local methanol manufacturers have limited inventory, but sales remain steady. Downstream demand is recovering slowly, and there is a certain degree of caution in the market. On the factory side: The ex-plant price of methanol produced by Shandong Yankuang today is 1,850–1,870 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease of 20 yuan per ton at the lower end. Currently, the manufacturers’ production facilities are operating smoothly, and sales volumes are average. The ex-plant price of methanol in Mingshui, Shandong has dropped by 100–150 yuan per ton, standing at 1900–1950 yuan per ton. At present, the plant is operating at a capacity of 300–400 tons per day, with an annual production capacity of 150,000 tons; the other plants are functioning steadily, and sales are at normal levels. The ex-factory price of methanol in Shandong Luxi is between 1,900 and 1,950 yuan per ton. The factory has recently shut down some of its production units, resulting in reduced output that has not yet returned to normal. The two methanol production units, with capacities of 100,000 tons and 60,000 tons per year respectively, are operating normally, with a daily production volume of over 300 tons. Trade volume is low, and the shipment situation remains stable for now. The ex-plant price of methanol produced by Yutianhua in Shaanxi is 1,800 yuan per ton. There has been good demand from downstream customers recently; the plant is operating normally with a daily production of over 1,000 tons, and shipments are relatively stable. The ex-plant price of methanol from the Shandong Alliance is set at 1,980–2,000 yuan per ton; the price for higher-quality grades is slightly lower by 50 yuan per ton. The factory’s methanol production facility, with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons, is operating steadily, with a daily production volume of around 1,000–1,300 tons. There has been decent interest in purchases recently, and there are no changes in terms of shipments. The daily production capacity of the methanol plant in Linquan, Anhui, is around 90-100 tons. Today, the manufacturer’s quote is 1900-1950 yuan per ton, representing a decrease of 200 yuan per ton compared to previous levels; further discounts are possible through negotiation ； It is also understood that the new equipment at this factory has been put into operation; inquiries from downstream clients are average, and sales volume remains relatively stable. Anhui Haoyuan’s ex-plant price for methanol has been reduced by 50 yuan per ton, resulting in a price of 1,950–2,000 yuan per ton. It is reported that its two methanol production units, with a combined annual capacity of 100,000 tons, are operating smoothly, with a daily production volume of over 600 tons. Exports are not high; shipments are average. The ex-factory price of methanol produced by Henan Xinlianxin is 1,900 yuan per ton. The factory states that its equipment is operating at around 30% capacity, with a daily production volume of 100–160 tons; currently, the sales situation is improving. The trading price of methanol in Hebei Zhengyuan is between 2,100 and 2,150 yuan per ton. The factory equipment is not operating at full capacity; the plants in Wuji and Pingshan mainly produce crude alcohol. Additionally, the plant in Lingshou has a low operating load, resulting in a low daily production volume, which remains around 100-200 tons recently. The sales situation remains stable as it was in the previous period. Hebei Tianbao’s ex-plant price for pure methanol is 2,000–2,050 yuan per ton. It is reported that the plant’s annual production capacity of 60,000 tons of methanol results in a daily output of around 50 tons ； The price of its crude alcohol is 1,700–1,750 yuan per ton, with a daily production capacity of 50–70 tons. The shipment level remains roughly the same as in the previous period. The trading price of methanol at Hebei Jiantao is 2,100 yuan per ton. The manufacturer’s methanol production facility with an annual capacity of 100,000 tons remains shut down and not in operation. Since its restart, the facility’s operating capacity is around 30%, resulting in a daily production of 100–150 tons; sales are moderate. The ex-plant price of methanol produced by Shanxi Fengxi is 1,750–1,800 yuan per ton, with a decrease of 50 yuan per ton for higher-grade products. Recently, its methanol production plant with an annual capacity of 450,000 tons has been operating at a low capacity, with daily output remaining between 100 and 200 tons. It is reported that the factory’s inventory levels are low, which is causing slight delays in shipments. The ex-plant price of methanol from the Daqing Oilfield has stabilized at 2,200 yuan per ton. It is reported that the plant’s facility with an annual production capacity of 200,000 tons of methanol is operating steadily; some of this methanol is used for producing acetic acid internally. The manufacturer states that there is a certain shortage of supply at present, yet there is strong demand from downstream customers, and shipment levels remain stable for now. It has been learned that the methanol production plant in Luzhou Tianhua, Sichuan, with an annual capacity of 445,000 tons, is currently shut down for maintenance. At present, sales are based on existing inventory and orders already placed, with prices around 1,950 yuan per ton. The factory says it expects to restart the plant in April. The ex-plant price of methanol produced by China Coal Longhua is set at 2,000–2,200 yuan per ton, with slight variations in price depending on the distance from the production site ； It is reported that the methanol plant with an annual production capacity of 160,000 tons operates at a low capacity, with a daily output of 200–300 tons; shipments are said to be stable. The 200,000-ton-per-year methanol production facility at Henan Pingmei Lantian is operating smoothly, with a daily output of around 200–300 tons; the factory’s price for methanol is 1,900 yuan per ton. It has been learned recently that one unit of the methanol production facility in Yima, Henan Province, has been put into operation, with a daily production capacity of 200 tons. The manufacturer’s price for methanol is 1,900 yuan per ton, which is in line with the market trends in the Henan region. Currently, sales are relatively stable, and there is good interest from potential buyers. Heilongjiang Baotailong’s ex-plant price for methanol is 2,100–2,200 yuan per ton. At present, one of the group’s methanol production facilities capable of producing 100,000 tons per year from coke oven gas is operating at a rate of 200 tons per day; exports are mainly directed to the local area and surrounding regions, with steady shipments. Plant operation status: The international methanol plant in Yankuang, Shandong, with an annual production capacity of 200,000 tons, is operating smoothly. Its daily production volume is around 450 tons, and the selling price is 1,850–1,870 yuan per ton. The Guotai plant in Shandong’s Yankuang Group, which produces 240,000 tons of methanol per year, is operating steadily, with a daily production volume of around 450 tons at present ； The group’s international methanol plant, with an annual production capacity of 200,000 tons, is operating smoothly, with an operational load of 450 tons per day ； The daily production capacity of the Yishan plant is currently around 100 tons, while the Lunan plant remains shut down; the time for its restart is yet to be determined. The factory’s selling price for methanol is listed at 1,850–1,870 yuan per ton. Before the festival, Shandong Mingshui Chemical stopped most of its production units and reduced output; it is reported that currently only the unit capable of producing 50,000 tons of lysine per year is operating normally, with a daily production volume of around 300-400 tons. The factory says that the timing for restarting the other units remains undecided. The 500,000-ton per year methanol production facility in Longyu, Yongcheng, Henan Province remains shut down with production restrictions in place; no prices have been announced yet, and exports have also been suspended. The factory says it may resume operations next month. A methanol production facility in Linquan, Anhui, with an annual capacity of 100,000 tons, is operating normally. However, its utilization rate is only around 50%, and the daily production volume is low, at 90–100 tons. The factory has set a price of 1,900–1,950 yuan per ton; actual transaction prices are slightly lower ； It is also understood that the new plant with an annual production capacity of 150,000 tons has been put into operation. The 70,000 tons per year methanol plant at Hebei Zhengyuan Wuji and the 100,000 tons per year methanol plant in Pingshan remain shut down, with production currently limited to crude alcohol. The 80,000-ton/year methanol plant at the Lingshou branch is operating normally, with its load remaining low at around 100-200 tons. The current factory price is 2,100–2,150 yuan per ton. CNOOC Jiantao’s 600,000 tons per year methanol plant is still operating at reduced capacity, with its load at around 80%. Due to issues with natural gas supply, the plant plans to carry out a shutdown for maintenance over a period of about 10 days in early March. Given the reduction in methanol supply in February and March, the plant will prioritize supplying key customers. Chongqing Jiantao’s methanol plant with an annual production capacity of 450,000 tons remains shut down. The company states that the restart of the plant will be delayed until May; it was shut down for maintenance in late December 2008 due to shortages of natural gas supply. The methanol production facility in Shenmu, Shaanxi, with an annual capacity of 200,000 tons, is operating normally. The newly built facility with an annual capacity of 400,000 tons has been shut down and its production limited; it has not yet started operating. At present, the daily production volume is around 800–1,000 tons. The manufacturer has set a price of 1,700 yuan per ton, and shipments are mainly made to contracted customers. Hebei Jiantao Chemical’s 100,000 tons per year methanol production facility using coke oven gas can produce around 300 tons per day, and its sales performance is satisfactory. The manufacturer stated that its newly built 100,000-ton/year plant has not yet been put into operation. The manufacturer stated that it plans to carry out maintenance on the first 100,000 tons per year production unit, and to put the second 100,000 tons per year production unit into operation. Due to low demand and high costs, Shanghai Coking’s methanol plant, with an annual production capacity of 800,000 tons, operates at around 20% capacity, resulting in a daily output of 400–500 tons. The status of the methanol plants in the southwest region remains unchanged, with no improvement in their shutdown situation. The methanol production facilities at Sichuan Lutianhua, Sichuan Jiangyou, and Chongqing Jiantao, with an annual capacity of 450,000 tons each, remain shut down; there are no plans to restart them in the short term. The two methanol plants in the Chongqing area, with a combined capacity of 350,000 tons, are operating at reduced capacity, with the manufacturers using some of the produced product for their own needs and only exporting a limited amount. The price in Sichuan and Chongqing is currently around 1,800–1,850 yuan per ton, down by 100 yuan per ton compared to earlier levels; exports, it is said, are performing fairly well. Market summary, analysis, and forecast: Today, the prices of methanol in the international market remained unchanged compared to the previous trading day in Europe, the United States, and Asia. In the domestic methanol market, prices continued to decline slightly today in the East China, South China, and North China regions. In the East China region, negotiation prices range from 1,750 to 1,830 yuan per ton; prices for high-end products have dropped by 20 yuan per ton. Supplies continue to arrive in port areas, but demand from downstream buyers is low, resulting in modest transaction volumes. It is expected that prices will remain stable in the coming period ； In South China, the negotiation prices range from 1,750 to 1,800 yuan per ton; for high-end products, the price has dropped by another 50 yuan per ton. Buyers are cautious, with low interest in making purchases, and downstream plants are not operating at full capacity, resulting in a sluggish atmosphere in negotiations ； In North China, the price range is 1,700–2,000 yuan per ton, representing a drop of 50–100 yuan per ton compared to yesterday. In Hebei, the negotiated prices are around 1,930–2,030 yuan per ton, with a decline of 20–70 yuan per ton compared to the previous day. In Shanxi, the current price range is 1,650–1,700 yuan per ton, also showing a decrease of 50–100 yuan per ton. Plant operations remain at the same level as before; the demand for formaldehyde in the downstream market is weak, so there is no increase in plant activity. Demand is expected to remain low and stable in the coming period.