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How do you view the fertilizer market price and supply and demand situation?

2009-02-28View Original

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Currently, it is a critical period for the winter wheat drought area in the north to fight drought and prepare fertilizer for spring plowing. What is the market price and supply situation of fertilizer? Reporters recently learned from interviews with relevant industry associations and China's Sinochem Group Corporation, the largest integrated fertilizer enterprise in production, supply and marketing, that during this year's spring plowing period, the supply of all types of fertilizers exceeded demand. Although market prices increased slightly after the Spring Festival, they were still much lower than the same period last year. The current slight rebound in fertilizer prices is a normal seasonal fluctuation. Fertilizers are important agricultural production materials and are an important factor in the development and development of agricultural production. * * An important guarantee for food security. After years of rapid development, domestic chemical fertilizers have achieved a basic balance between total supply and demand. However, there are also problems such as unreasonable structure, unsuitable price formation mechanism and operating system. To this end, the State Council executive meeting held on December 24 last year pointed out that comprehensive supporting measures must be taken to deepen reforms, improve regulatory mechanisms, promote the stable and healthy development of the fertilizer industry, promote agricultural development and increase farmers' income. On January 24 this year, * * The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice to relax price controls and temporary intervention measures on fertilizers. Since the second half of 2008, affected by the global financial crisis, global fertilizer market prices have fallen sharply. Before the Spring Festival, the international urea price was US$255 per ton, down 70% from the peak price of US$830 per ton in 2008. ; The price of diammonium is US$350 per ton, down 71% from the peak price of US$1,200 per ton in 2008. The price level is similar to that of the same period in 2007. In China, the price of urea is 1,620 yuan per ton (in Shandong), which is 42% lower than the peak fertilizer price of 2,800 yuan per ton in the summer of 2008. ; The price of diammonium is 2,700 yuan per ton (in the Northeast region), which is 45% lower than the peak price of 4,900 yuan per ton in 2008. Before the Spring Festival, domestic fertilizer prices were basically lower than the fertilizer production cost or at the same cost line, and production companies were under huge operating pressure. Currently, the international price of urea is US$270 per ton, 6% higher than before the Spring Festival. ; Diammonium prices remained unchanged before the holiday. The reporter learned from interviews that due to the obvious lack of precipitation in the main winter wheat-producing areas last winter, after the Spring Festival holiday, winter wheat greening irrigation began in Henan and was rolled out to Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hebei and other provinces, which also enabled the spring fertilizer market to start early. Due to the excessive concentration of irrigation water, the market price of nitrogen fertilizer urea has increased. Driven by the nitrogen fertilizer urea market, the diammonium phosphate market, compound fertilizer market, and potassium fertilizer market have also been launched one after another, and prices have also increased slightly. It is reported that the current domestic urea price is 1,760 yuan per ton (Shandong region), an increase of 8.7% from the pre-holiday price, and the diammonium price is 2,900 yuan per ton (Northeast region), an increase of 7.4% from the pre-holiday price. The reporter learned during the interview that the reason for the price increase was mainly due to the intensive use of fertilizers for drought-resistant irrigation, rather than the shortage of market demand. Although prices have rebounded significantly, they are significantly lower than the same period in 2008. In order to ensure the use of fertilizer during spring plowing this year, * * The commercial reserve of chemical fertilizers for 2008-2009 has been increased from 5 million tons to 16 million tons. At the same time, based on new situations such as the domestic fertilizer market capacity/output exceeding demand and the international fertilizer market price falling sharply, * * Eliminate domestic fertilizer price restrictions and adjust fertilizer export tariffs. Expert analysis believes that this not only ensures stable supply in the domestic spring plowing market, but also mobilizes the enthusiasm of chemical fertilizer manufacturers to create a good policy and market environment for the spring plowing market. It is worth mentioning that China’s Sinochem Group Corporation, as a central enterprise and the largest enterprise integrating fertilizer production, supply and marketing, has taken three major measures to ensure the supply of fertilizers in the domestic market, promote the stability of fertilizer prices, and maintain the good development of agriculture and rural economy in recent years. In terms of production, Sinochem fully supports investment enterprises in terms of capital, raw material supply, product sales, etc. to operate at full capacity to ensure domestic supply and promote price stability. Currently, Sinochem holds controlling shares in 14 fertilizer companies in China, with a total production capacity of 10.16 million tons. It produces a full range of fertilizer products such as nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer, potash fertilizer, and compound fertilizer. It is the only domestic company with the production capacity of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, and compound fertilizer. It is estimated that more than 2.7 million tons of various types of fertilizers will be produced in the first quarter. Adding the company's existing inventory, more than 3.5 million tons of supply will be put on the market in a timely manner. In terms of domestic trade procurement and online distribution, Sinochem has currently established the largest agricultural input marketing network in the country. It has distribution centers in major agricultural counties in 26 provinces, with outlets covering more than 91% of the cultivated land area. It has also established a differential logistics system from the port to the inland, and from agricultural input distribution centers to townships and towns. Sinochem Corporation has undertaken * * The off-season reserve of fertilizers from 2008 to 2009 is 2.15 million tons. Including other sources of supply, it is expected that during the spring plowing period, Sinochem's own production and domestic and foreign procurement will have about 11 million tons of various types of fertilizers transported to the countryside to meet farmers' fertilizer needs in a timely manner. In terms of agrochemical services, Sinochem has built 1,000 scientific fertilization demonstration villages. It has used the "Soil Testing and Formulated Fertilization Laboratory" built in cooperation with the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences to test 20,000 soil samples for farmers free of charge. It has relied on hired local soil and fertilizer experts to provide more than 6,000 agrochemical service activities such as agrochemical lectures and field technical guidance across the country. It has distributed various scientific fertilization manuals to farmers for free to help farmers improve spring plowing production.

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