Invest tens of billions of Shenhua to fight coal-to-liquids! !

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This post was last published by jordan569 on 2013-1-6 22:41. Editor Zhang Yuzhuo compared the coal-to-liquids project to a child with a "good seedling". "Now many uncles and aunts say that he is not good, saying that he has high consumption and cannot afford to support him. ”But in the future, this child can definitely become a pillar of talent. Shenhua Group had expected that the project would begin commercial operations in the second quarter of this year. However, according to the current progress, it is somewhat difficult to realize this wish. Some analysts predict that the project will be officially put into production before the end of 2009. Dreams come true, coal-to-liquids project reaches peak moment: The current international oil price of US$40 per barrel is the industry-recognized break-even point for coal-to-liquid production. On December 30, 2008, the Ordos coal-to-liquids project of China Shenhua Group Co., Ltd. ("Shenhua" for short) successfully produced oil. Now, it is a problem of market connection. Controversies surrounding the coal-to-liquids demonstration project with an investment of more than 10 billion yuan have been ongoing for many years, especially after the international oil price plummeted in the second half of last year. The poor coal-to-liquids market outlook, at least for now, is fueling calls for coal-to-liquids technology to be sidelined. However, Shenhua, which is rushing to work in a hurry, still insists on carrying forward the industry in the plan. From getting the approval letter to successfully producing oil, Shenhua has been working hard on its coal-to-oil project for eight years. There are various signs that China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation ("Sinopec" for short) may have been deeply involved in Shenhua's coal-to-liquids project, which has caused the outside world to pay attention to whether Shenhua's future oil sales problems have been solved in advance. Strategic Breakthrough Shenhua Group grandly announced in Beijing on January 7, 2009, that the one-million-ton direct coal liquefaction demonstration project was successfully put into trial operation, opening up the entire plant's production process. This project is located in Ordos City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. The demonstration project started coal injection at 14:46 on December 30, 2008. After 16 hours of operation, the oil residue was successfully formed at 7:00 on December 31, and qualified oil and chemicals were produced. Li Yizhong, Minister of Industry and Information Technology of China, commented on this:: “It marks that my country has become the first country in the world to master the key technologies of the million-ton coal direct liquefaction demonstration project. * * , is a major breakthrough in my country's implementation of the oil substitution strategy and is of great significance. ” It is understood that the first phase of operation lasted a total of 303 hours. A person involved in the maintenance of the production equipment of the project revealed to Time Weekly that the overall effect of the first phase of operation was good, and the quality of the oil output was also fully qualified, which should be said to be in line with the expectations of all parties. The person said that although there were some minor glitches during the operation, they were all controllable. This production line is currently in the shutdown stage for maintenance. The next step is to complete the maintenance three months later, that is, on May 25, and conduct a second test run in early June. Although the current public statement is that the second phase of driving must reach 1,000 hours, Shenhua has internally adjusted this goal to 1,000-2,000 hours. On January 22, the third meeting of the Shenhua Coal Direct Liquefaction Demonstration Project Linked Test Coordination Steering Group, led by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, was held. The meeting required Shenhua Group to follow the next step * * In line with the requirements of "safety, success and efficiency" put forward by the Prime Minister, we must carefully summarize the test run, carry out optimization and transformation, and start formulating the next step of driving plan. Shenhua Ordos coal-to-liquids belongs to the direct liquefaction of coal, which is the only one operating in China. The project was approved in March 2001, construction started in 2004, and the project was completed in 2007. Since then, the project has been in the debugging stage, and there have been multiple versions of the start-up time. According to the plan, the Ordos coal-to-liquids project is divided into two phases. The first phase includes three million-ton production lines, and the investment will reach 30 billion yuan. In other words, the investment in the first production line has exceeded 10 billion yuan. Previously, it was reported that this figure is 12.3 billion yuan, which can convert 3.5 million tons of coal every year and produce 1.08 million tons of diesel, liquefied petroleum gas, naphtha and other products. It took eight years and tens of billions of investments to produce oil, but now it is ready to produce oil on the last day of 2008, which shows Shenhua's dedication to this project. In particular, the construction period of this project happened to go through the entire process when the oil price climbed to a high of more than 140 US dollars per barrel. Internal employees of Shenhua once said privately that in order to catch up with the progress, they only took two days off in two years. Orient Securities analyst Wang Shuai told reporters that Shenhua is the leader in China's coal industry and as a demonstration project,“ * * The name "designated" will help Shenhua in * * The improved status in the energy strategy will bring advantages to its future resource integration and other aspects. The coal-to-liquids project successfully produced oil, which has once again raised expectations for the coal-to-liquids project to inject assets into listed companies. Previously, the latest outside analysis was that the project may be injected into the listed company in 2010 after it is put into commercial operation. However, Wang Shuai believes that whether the project can be injected into a listed company still depends on profitability. When the market prospects are promising, it is only a matter of time before the assets of the listed company are injected. However, it is not appropriate to do this when there is a possibility of losing money. Sinopec’s Helping Hands On January 23, Shenhua General Manager Zhang Yuzhuo led the company’s coal-to-liquids leaders to pay a special visit to Sinopec’s headquarters and had a discussion with Sinopec General Manager Su Shulin. According to news released on Shenhua’s website, Zhang Yuzhuo thanked Sinopec for supporting Shenhua’s coal-to-liquids chemical business over the years, especially the direct coal liquefaction project, and proposed that the two parties further deepen cooperation in the field of coal chemicals in the future. Su Shulin also congratulated Shenhua on the successful commissioning of the coal liquefaction unit and expressed his willingness to form a strategic partner with Shenhua to jointly develop petroleum alternatives. The previous day, January 22, Li Yizhong, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, presided over the third meeting of the Shenhua Coal Direct Liquefaction Demonstration Project Linked Test Coordination Steering Group. There is in this * * In the meeting attended by 16 units including the Energy Bureau, Sinopec organized an expert group to evaluate the project and put forward suggestions. At the State Council Shenhua Coal Direct Liquefaction Demonstration Project Linked Testing Meeting held on November 29, 2008, both Sinopec and PetroChina sent representatives to attend. The meeting at that time decided to establish a coordination and steering group with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology as the leader unit and the Energy Bureau as the deputy leader unit. It consists of an expert group, a safety group and a security group. However, it was Sinopec that finally appeared in the expert group. This slightly dramatic result did not attract too much attention. Some insiders pointed out that the leading unit of the expert group is Sinopec, which shows that Sinopec plays a role in the oil refining process and will play an important role in the promotion of coal-to-liquids projects in the future. In an interview with Times Weekly, AsiaChem Consulting also believed that it was not surprising that Sinopec appeared on the expert panel. It can not only provide technical support to Shenhua, but more importantly, provide help with the future sales strategy of coal-to-liquids products. In July 2008, Zhang Yuzhuo, then deputy general manager of Shenhua, confirmed to the media that Shenhua was negotiating with Sinopec on cooperative downstream sales of oil products. However, the discussions at that time were mainly about Sinopec’s participation in Shenhua’s Yulin and Ningxia project operations, and did not involve the Ordos project. Shenhua itself neither has the strength nor the necessity to build a new independent oil storage, transportation and sales system. At that time, Shenhua's coal-to-liquids were highly regarded by all parties, and there were reports that foreign investors, including Shell, wanted to jointly establish sales channels with Shenhua. There have been voices in the industry suggesting that coal-to-liquid production should not be separated from the petroleum refining process. There is currently no official statement on how the cooperation between Shenhua and Sinopec will unfold. Interestingly, at least in Shenhua’s Ordos project department, many people with Sinopec background have been recruited. Chen Xiangsheng, a professor-level senior engineer at Luoyang Petrochemical Engineering Company, said in an interview with Times Weekly that in fact, the refined oil produced by Shenhua is not directly usable, and must undergo certain follow-up processing. For Sinopec, this kind of technical demand is just a piece of cake. Industry insiders pointed out that China Shenhua’s coal-to-liquids project has conflicts of interest with petroleum and petrochemical groups. However, considering Li Yi’s long-term background in the petrochemical industry and the coordination of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the conflicts should be better resolved, and the terminal sales problem of coal-to-liquids may have been solved. The cost problem If Shenhua's future oil sales problem is solved, then the only thing left is when to sell oil. However, this issue cannot be decided by Shenhua itself. It requires both the improvement of the external market environment and the improvement of the external market environment. * * support. The current international oil price is hovering around US$40 per barrel, which is the break-even point of coal-to-liquids projects recognized by the industry. But $40 is not an exact measure for Shenhua. General manager Zhang Yuzhuo said on January 7 that there was not yet enough data for them to calculate the cost of producing oil from the production line. Asia Chemical Consulting told reporters that based on the current market conditions, the profits Shenhua can earn will not be very high, but it may not lose money, and in the long run, a rebound in oil prices is the general trend. From a policy perspective, “supporting the orderly development of key enterprises” will also be * * A long-term practice. China * * The Development and Reform Commission had suspended coal-to-liquids projects three times before 2009. The "Notice on Issues Concerning Strengthening the Management of Coal-to-Liquids Projects" in August 2008 suspended the approval of new coal-to-liquids projects and only granted approval to Shenhua's two major projects. However, due to good expectations that oil prices will continue to rise, the enthusiasm for coal-to-liquids has not subsided. There are already signs of projects being approved first and then approved later. According to the report statistics of Asia Chemical Consulting Company, China's total coal-to-liquids production capacity in 2009 was approximately 1.6 million tons. This year will be a year of historic progress for China's coal-to-liquids industry. Chen Xiangsheng, a senior engineer at Luoyang Petrochemical, said that there was a previous statement that * * The opinion is that "if Shenhua's projects are unsuccessful, not a single project will be approved." However, projects in various places are basically planned. In reality, there is still a long way to go. In addition to the Ordos project, the Ningxia Ningdong coal indirect liquefaction project jointly owned by Shenhua and South Africa's Sasol is also under review, and the project feasibility study is likely to be completed in 2009. In addition, Shenhua has taken the initiative to stop the continued operation of the Shaanxi Yulin project. * * The guarantees and pressures determine that Shenhua can only go all out to build the Ordos project first. In this sense, the name of "demonstration project" is even more deserved. Coal-to-liquids projects have been criticized by the outside world due to their huge financial and environmental costs. In response to these disputes, Zhang Yuzhuo said last month that the entire production process of the project has achieved near-zero emission of pollutants, increasing the utilization rate of coal by more than five times. Compared with using coal to generate electricity, converting coal into oil has increased the heat utilization rate of coal by half. In addition, the oil produced during the current trial operation is of high quality. If used as automobile fuel, its exhaust emissions will be higher than the Euro V standard. In 2008, Shenhua Group produced 281.3 million tons of coal and sold 311.2 million tons of commercial coal, with total revenue of 140.6 billion yuan. As the leading coal company that has made a lot of money in the past two years, Shenhua's capital investment in the coal-to-liquids project should not be a problem. Zhang Yuzhuo has stated that Shenhua Group's major projects in 2009 include Inner Mongolia's Ordos coal-to-liquids project. After successfully producing oil, transitioning from the experimental stage to long-term operation will be the next test Shenhua faces. If this technology is relegated to the cold side and becomes a "reserve technology", this is the outcome Shenhua least wants to see. .Note$#, $ $