In 2009, it was also difficult for the mining industry to recover quickly

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Since the third quarter of 2008, mineral product prices have fallen sharply. The main factors are the impact of the global financial tsunami and the decline in global demand. In 2009, it was difficult for the mining industry to recover quickly. According to experience, the recovery of the mining industry will take about 2-3 years based on the recovery of the macro economy. For example, the Asian financial crisis in 1998 also brought the mining industry to a trough. In 2000, the macroeconomy began to recover. From 2003 to 2008, mineral products experienced a bull market. According to research by Bart Milek, senior economist at Nesbitt & Burns Securities in Toronto, Canada, since World War II, the price fluctuation cycle of the mineral market has generally been: Energy is 55 months, base metals are 50 months, and precious metals are 45 months. In order to revitalize the economy, * * A four-trillion-yuan stimulus package has been introduced, but this is not a direct stimulus to the nonferrous metals industry. Although the situation is pressing, at the same time, the global financial crisis has led to low valuations of mineral resource companies, providing domestic mining companies with relatively insufficient resource reserves with a good opportunity to integrate resources through mergers and acquisitions and complete international expansion. The following are the views of some industry experts on the future of mining: Monessi, Asia director and head of metals and mining investment banking at Citibank, pointed out that under the impact of the financial crisis, investors (mainly hedge funds) were forced to reduce their commodity investments, and major commodity currencies depreciated sharply, causing the mining industry valuation to return to unprecedented lows. Head of UK CRU Commodity Research Institute in China * Executive Officer Johnson bluntly stated that the current mining and commodity markets are in a difficult period, and “the demand for metals is worse than expected. In the short term, metal prices fell even lower than imagined. In 2009, metal prices will fall by 30%. ” Chen Jinghe, chairman of Zijin Mining Group, believes that “for the mining industry, winter has arrived, but the current mining market has only entered early winter. This winter will last three to five years, and 2009 will be the bottom of the industry. The mining market will slowly recover in 2010, but this does not mean that it will return to the bull market, but that it will return to relatively objective prices. ” Feng Rui, chairman of Canadian Silver Metal Mining Co., Ltd., who has 14 years of experience in the mining industry, said that since he started working, he has experienced two rounds of fluctuations in the mining industry, and the current situation is very similar to the mining trough period from 1998 to 2002, and this round of trough has just begun. Feng Rui pointed out that mining and GDP have synchronized cycles. Global GDP plays a crucial role in changes in metal prices. Metal prices will not always rise, and the time to invest in mining should be when metal prices are at a low point. The pricing power of mining companies has always been controlled by the market. In the future, mining financing will encounter difficulties. Companies that want to go global at this time will have to endure at least three or four years of winter. Next year may not be the best time for Chinese companies to go global. On December 12, 2008, Goldman Sachs significantly raised or lowered its metal price forecasts for 2009. Aluminum was lowered from US$1,300/ton in 2020 to US$1,300/ton, and copper was lowered from US$3,835/ton to US$2,700/ton. ； Nickel price lowered from US$11,095/ton to US$8,000/ton ； Zinc is lowered from US$1,310/ton to US$1,080/ton ； Zircon and titanium dioxide supply shortages are expected and prices will increase.