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analyze: Keywords analyzed in PVC industry in 2009: Financial Crisis Ethylene Price In recent years, with the development of my country's construction industry and plastic processing industry, the demand for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) has grown rapidly. Especially after China won the anti-dumping case against PVC in 2003, high profits attracted a large number of investors to enter the field. Domestic PVC renovation, expansion, and new projects have been launched one after another. In 2005, my country's PVC production capacity increased by 46.38% year-on-year, reaching the highest peak in recent years. In 2007, my country became the world's largest PVC producer. As my country's PVC production capacity continues to increase, the supply and demand relationship has changed, and the situation of heavy reliance on imports has been significantly improved. ； At the same time, PVC market prices have declined, industry profitability has declined, and raw material supply problems have become prominent. However, production and capacity expansion are still in progress, and PVC production capacity continues to increase. However, the operating rate of domestic PVC devices has shown a gradual downward trend. In 2008, the overall operating rate of the devices fell back to less than 60%. The market price experienced a roller coaster in 2008. my country's PVC market experienced a roller coaster in 2008, with very obvious price fluctuations. In the first half of the year, against the backdrop of rising raw material prices, PVC prices also soared. ； Affected by the financial crisis in the second half of the year, downstream demand shrank severely and PVC prices plummeted, falling by more than 40% from the highest to the lowest. At the beginning of 2008, due to the heavy snowfall in the south and the Spring Festival travel season, the outbound transportation of calcium carbide and PVC goods was blocked. Many PVC companies started operations at a low level, resulting in a sharp decrease in PVC supply and rising prices. This market situation lasted until the Spring Festival in 2008. After the Spring Festival in 2008, "raw material prices continued to rise, market prices continued to rise, market supply was tight, and demand growth continued to be light." The relatively stalemate market abnormality lasted until the end of May. In June 2008, with the sharp rise in crude oil prices, domestic petrochemical product prices rose significantly. The price of ethylene also rose from US$1,480 to US$1,520/ton (CFR Northeast Asia) at the end of May 2008 to US$1,550 to US$1,600/ton (CFR Northeast Asia) in early June 2008, driving the price of ethylene-based PVC to rise by 200 yuan/ton in early June 2008. Calcium carbide-based PVC rose by 300 yuan/ton in the first and mid-term and then stabilized at 8,650 yuan/ton in the second half of the year. The transportation of hazardous chemicals in areas around the Olympic venues has been strictly controlled and electricity prices have increased, causing the cost of calcium carbide to rise significantly and the price to rise. Due to power cuts and insufficient supply of calcium carbide, the operating rate of PVC production companies in Shandong, Hebei, Henan and other places is only 30% to 40%. Reduced output and rising costs support the price of calcium carbide method PVC to rise by 150 yuan to 200 yuan/ton, while the price of ethylene method remains stable after rising by 200 yuan/ton. It is difficult to increase the price of downstream processed products, and it is difficult to accept high-priced PVC. Transactions continue to be sluggish, and the market has formed a stalemate. Affected by the continuous decline in raw material prices and the continued sluggish demand at home and abroad, the domestic PVC market price continued to fall in October, production continued to decline, demand continued to shrink, and the market continued to be weak. By mid-November 2008, domestic PVC prices fell to the bottom in the second half of the year. The mainstream price of calcium carbide PVC in East and South China fell to 5,000 yuan to 5,200 yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene method PVC also dropped to 5,200 yuan to 5,350 yuan/ton. Since then, social circulation resources have gradually decreased. In the absence of insufficient demand support, the PVC market has briefly surged and then fell sharply. However, it rose sharply again in the last month of 2008, and it is difficult to determine how long this round of rise can be sustained. The market outlook is highly variable. The PVC industry is a basic and energy-intensive industry, which is greatly affected by demand and energy prices. It is also a basic chemical raw material for the national economy, so its connection with economic development is also very obvious.