Document No. 1 issued by the Central Government and the development of the compound fertilizer industry in 2009

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Food is the foundation of people’s lives; a prosperous agriculture ensures stability. China is a country that relies on agriculture for its survival, and therefore all political and economic activities are centered around the development of agriculture. Our country has **always attached great importance to issues related to agriculture and the rural areas, treating agricultural problems as top priorities. On February 1, 2009, Xinhua News Agency released the \"Several Opinions of the Central Committee and the State Council on Promoting the Stable Development of Agriculture and the Sustained Increase in Farmers’ Incomes in 2009.\" As the sixth Central Document No. 1 addressing agricultural and rural affairs since 2004, it introduces a number of \"new measures\" to consolidate the positive trends in agricultural and rural development. These new measures will play a significant role in promoting the development of agriculture and rural areas in China in 2009. The development of agriculture in our country is inseparable from the compound fertilizer industry ； Compound fertilizers have advantages such as high nutrient content, few impurities, and good physical properties; they play a very important role in achieving balanced fertilization, improving fertilizer utilization efficiency, and promoting high and stable crop yields. Currently, the development of compound fertilizers follows three main trends: the first is the specialization of multiple varieties. Different crops have different specialized fertilizers. The second is multi-functional medicinal use. Combining pesticides and fertilizers can yield multiple effects. Third is high concentration and prolonged duration. The use of this type of fertilizer reduces the amount of fertilizer needed, improves its efficiency, saves labor, time, and effort, while also enhancing quality and productivity. In some agricultural areas, the compound fertilizer industry has played a significant role in the local agricultural development. The compound fertilizer industry is closely related to agriculture and rural development. Of course, as an industry that benefits farmers, the compound fertilizer sector is bound to benefit from Document No. 1 issued by the central government and achieve significant development in a favorable policy environment. Below, I would like to share my insights by drawing on the spirit of the No. 1 Central Document and the actual developments in the compound fertilizer industry. 　　 1 The No. 1 Central Document has brought timely relief to China’s compound fertilizer industry. The global financial crisis is like a dry hot wind* that has swept across the world, having a significant impact on the economy, particularly on the development of industrial economies. In 2009, the potential for significant development of China’s compound fertilizer industry was closely linked to agriculture. Our country is a major agricultural nation, with the agricultural population accounting for 80% of the total population. As an important means of agricultural production, compound fertilizers play a crucial role in the development of agriculture in our country. However, recently the international sulfur price has seen a sharp drop; within just two to three months, it fell from 6,000 yuan per ton to around 400 yuan per ton at present. As a result, the production cost of phosphate ammonium fertilizers is now 1,000 yuan per ton higher than it was at its peak. These rapid fluctuations in sulfur prices have caused significant disruptions for downstream phosphate fertilizer manufacturers. When sulfur prices rise, fertilizer manufacturers are unable to increase their prices immediately, facing significant cost pressures ； However, when prices drop, companies have to bear the price losses resulting from holding inventory at high costs. These companies that purchase expensive raw materials are in a difficult situation given the high inventory pressure of compound fertilizer products at present: if they start production, they won’t be able to sell their products ； Even with reduced production or shutdowns, workers’ salaries still need to be paid. Data shows that in 2008, over 40% of domestic compound fertilizer companies will incur losses. Since the beginning of 2009, the compound fertilizer market has entered its most challenging phase at the start of each spring, facing dual pressures: instability in the upstream raw material market and a lack of confidence among downstream buyers who are reluctant to place orders. There is no doubt that a decline in the prices of compound fertilizers is inevitable; what everyone is most concerned about is the extent of this decline and whether sales of compound fertilizers will recover and experience a turnaround. The development of China’s compound fertilizer industry is influenced by many subjective and objective factors; of course, the most crucial one is the market. The market is also composed of various elements, but within the market itself, the most important factor is the supply-and-demand relationship; of course, there are also factors such as the external market environment. Together, these factors have a significant impact on the development of the compound fertilizer industry. In 2009, the environment for the development of China’s compound fertilizer industry was not favorable; the impact of the financial crisis grew increasingly severe, the international market was in a downturn, and the domestic economy was in a phase of decline. Under such circumstances, the No. 1 Central Document this year was issued in a timely manner, further emphasizing the importance of issues related to rural areas, agriculture, and farmers; the rural economy is set to encounter new opportunities for development in 2009. The implementation of land transfer policies is conducive to the long-term development of the rural economy. The increased investment by the central government and various levels of administration in infrastructure such as rural water resources, energy, and transportation contributes to improving the conditions for agricultural development. Further reform and improvement of subsidies for agricultural products such as grain will further increase farmers’ income and purchasing power. All of these will contribute to the comprehensive development of China’s compound fertilizer industry, enhance the supply and demand capacity in the compound fertilizer market, improve the consumption environment as well as the external conditions surrounding this industry, and support the long-term growth of China’s compound fertilizer industry. 1) The policies introduced in the No. 1 Central Document have boosted the enthusiasm of farmers and large-scale growers to invest in agriculture, directly leading to an increase in demand for compound fertilizers and creating market opportunities for the development of China’s compound fertilizer industry. As is well known, **the agricultural policies will affect farmers’ enthusiasm for developing agricultural production, as well as the development of the compound fertilizer industry in our country. Since 2007, China has introduced a series of preferential policies to promote agriculture, such as the exemption of agricultural taxes, subsidies for growing grain, subsidies for high-quality seeds, and subsidies for purchasing large-scale agricultural machinery. These measures have effectively boosted farmers’ enthusiasm for farming, resulting in an agricultural growth rate of over 4%. Therefore, without proactive agricultural policies, there can be no significant development in agriculture, nor can there be prosperity in the compound fertilizer industry. In recent years, a world food crisis has emerged, with food shortages in many places; our country also faces issues related to food security. This food crisis has heightened the emphasis on agriculture. This year’s No. 1 Central Document emphasizes increasing support for farmers in grain cultivation. First and foremost, it calls for greater investment in agricultural infrastructure and technological services in order to reduce farmers’ operating costs ； Secondly, further increases will be made to various direct subsidies for agriculture. The four types of subsidies—subsidies for grain cultivation, subsidies for high-quality seeds, subsidies for the purchase of agricultural machinery, and comprehensive subsidies for agricultural inputs—are expected to rise to around 120 billion yuan this year ； Third, raise the **minimum purchase price for grain ； Fourth, increase the ** reserves ； Fifth is to regulate imports and exports reasonably. Regarding the purchase prices for grain, the minimum purchase price for rice for this year, which was announced not long ago, has increased by 13 yuan per 100 jin, with an increase rate of between 130% and 16%. Furthermore, due to the lag in development of farmland irrigation facilities and technical guidance for agricultural production in rural areas, as well as the limitations of rural land contracting policies, some farmers’ desire to expand their planting areas and adopt intensive farming methods cannot be fulfilled for the time being; this also reduces their demand for large-scale agricultural machinery and the latest agricultural production technologies. The land transfer policy has become an effective solution to these contradictions and problems. Land transfer leads to the gradual concentration of rural land in the hands of large-scale growers, and with longer contract periods, farmers can confidently increase their investments, especially in fertilizers, considering both expected revenues and costs. All of these laid the foundation for the development of agriculture and grain production in China in 2009, and also provided a solid guarantee for the growth of China’s compound fertilizer industry. Good policies and favorable market conditions will surely boost farmers’ enthusiasm for investing in agriculture, which will in turn increase investment in compound fertilizers as a means of production. With the further implementation of policies to support agriculture and the expansion of crop planting areas, the demand for compound fertilizers will increase even further. 2) The No. 1 Central Document introduces various policies to effectively increase the incomes of farmers, providing the necessary prerequisites for boosting demand for compound fertilizers and expanding their consumption. At present, the income levels and investment patterns of rural residents influence the demand in China’s compound fertilizer market to a certain extent. The key to the expansion of the compound fertilizer market in our country lies in the increase in people’s incomes; only when people have more money will they be willing to invest more in farming, and thus purchase more compound fertilizers. Out of China’s 1.3 billion people, 900 million are farmers, making it the world’s largest agricultural producer; thus, the demand for compound fertilizers is extremely high. But how strong is the purchasing power of farmers in our country? It depends on the farmers’ income! At present, farmers in our country have two sources of income: income from farming and income from working. In recent years, wage income has accounted for about 40% of their total net income. Since 2008, due to the impact of the financial crisis and the downturn in businesses in developed areas along the coast, a large number of migrant workers returned to their hometowns to work in farming. As a result, the decline in the number of migrant workers employed has made it difficult to increase farmers’ incomes. On December 20 of last year, the General Office of the State Council issued a special notice regarding the proper handling of matters related to migrant workers at present. The main policies include encouraging enterprises in cities and developed coastal areas to avoid dismissing migrant workers or to do so as little as possible ； A range of support and subsidy measures are adopted to help migrant workers start their own businesses upon returning to their hometowns ； It is required that all regions effectively safeguard the land-related rights and interests of migrant workers who work away from home, and so on. This year’s No. 1 Central Document states that in the construction of urban and rural infrastructure as well as in the creation of new public-interest jobs, migrant workers should be employed to the greatest extent possible ； Use methods such as work-based relief to encourage farmers to participate in the construction of agricultural and rural infrastructure ； Carry out large-scale, targeted, and practical skill training for migrant workers. The aforementioned policies will effectively increase employment opportunities for farmers and ensure an increase in their wage income. Furthermore, raising the **minimum purchase price for grain will also help increase farmers’ income from farming. Currently, it is preliminarily considered that the minimum purchase price for various types of grain this year should be increased by around 0.22 yuan per kilogram. Based on China’s grain production volume of 528.5 billion kilograms in 2008, an increase of 0.22 yuan per kilogram would enable farmers to earn an additional 110 billion yuan from grain sales. As farmers’ incomes increase and they have more money at their disposal, they are willing to purchase agricultural inputs such as compound fertilizers in order to increase their investment in agriculture. This helps to improve the supply and demand balance for compound fertilizers and promotes the growth of the compound fertilizer market. Furthermore, affected by the financial crisis, a large number of migrant farmers returned to their hometowns to work in agriculture, which will contribute to an increase in the agricultural cultivation rate in 2009, and thus raise the demand for compound fertilizers. 3) The No. 1 Central Document will significantly improve the market environment for compound fertilizers in our country, providing convenience and support for their production and distribution. At present, many rural infrastructure facilities remain underdeveloped, which hinders agricultural development and restricts farmers’ demand for products such as compound fertilizers. The 2009 Central Document No. 1 identified five key areas: the first is the development of rural power grids. Large-scale grid construction has already covered around 95% of the rural population, with about 5% still requiring accelerated coverage or power supply assurance through other measures. Among them, the most important one is to achieve the same electricity network and price across urban and rural areas. Secondly, regarding rural road construction, about 87% of administrative villages across the country are currently connected by public buses, and this coverage rate is set to increase further in the future. Wait. All of these will **improve the market environment for compound fertilizers in our country, laying a solid foundation for the prosperity of this market. In 2009, a series of policies will be implemented to improve the consumption environment in rural areas. Judging from the improvement in the conditions of the consumer market, **the relevant departments have introduced a series of policies and measures aimed at boosting rural consumption. In order to change the overall situation in rural areas where consumption remains \"inconvenient, unsafe, and unaffordable,\" the Ministry of Commerce has been implementing the \"Ten Thousand Villages, Thousand Towns\" project and the \"Two Hundred\" project since 2005. Through the implementation of these two projects, efforts are being made to eliminate bottlenecks in the distribution of consumer goods and gradually narrow the consumption gap between urban and rural areas, thereby providing new impetus for boosting consumption in rural markets. At the same time, stricter penalties for counterfeit and substandard products should be introduced to further rectify and standardize market order, thereby providing farmers with a safe and reliable consumption environment. Therefore, significantly improving and optimizing the rural consumption environment plays a crucial role in the development of compound fertilizers. 2. The industrial development of compound fertilizers effectively implements and puts into practice the spirit of Document No. 1 issued by the central government. While Document No. 1 promotes the development of China’s compound fertilizer industry, this industry itself also adheres to the principles outlined in that document, thereby enhancing the impact of the relevant policies. It is mainly reflected in two aspects: 1) The compound fertilizer industry has helped increase farmers’ incomes and ensured stable and increased agricultural production. The main purpose of the No. 1 Central Document is to increase farmers’ incomes and ensure stable production and growth in agriculture, thereby promoting the steady and sustainable development of China’s agricultural sector. The compound fertilizer industry is an important sector that supports agriculture; it plays an irreplaceable role in increasing agricultural income and serves as a crucial factor in ensuring stable and increased agricultural production. Especially over the past 20-plus years since the reform of China’s rural economic system, the compound fertilizer industry has made significant contributions to boosting agricultural output, increasing farmers’ incomes, and transforming the landscape of rural areas. The pressures on agricultural production are self-evident. To improve agricultural production levels on limited per capita arable land, increase farmers’ incomes, and meet people’s demand for agricultural products such as grains, fibers, and oils, it is necessary to sustain the development of agricultural production and vigorously promote the use of compound fertilizers. Compound fertilizers are important production materials for maintaining soil fertility and developing agriculture. They play a vital role in this regard. It is foreseeable that in the future, China’s compound fertilizer industry will continue to make new contributions to fostering harmonious agricultural development, ensuring bumper harvests, and helping farmers increase their incomes. 2) The compound fertilizer industry contributes back to agriculture. According to incomplete statistics, there are currently over 2,000 compound fertilizer manufacturing enterprises in China, with Shandong, Jiangsu, and Hubei being the provinces with the highest concentration of such enterprises. Currently, most compound fertilizer companies are increasingly enhancing their awareness of corporate social responsibility and improving their ability to give back directly. Establish a broader platform that encourages greater investment, reduced intervention, and greater autonomy, so that various production factors of enterprises can be directed toward rural areas. Some enterprises directly participate in the development of new rural areas by setting up factories in the countryside. They focus on addressing the issues related to agriculture, rural areas, and farmers, and strive to develop non-agricultural industries. They extend the agricultural value chain, using agriculture as a source of raw materials, turning rural areas into production sites and transforming farmers into industrial workers. Currently, the feedback of the compound fertilizer industry to agriculture has become a prevailing trend. Some compound fertilizer factories, after achieving profits, invest in providing tap water for the local villagers, building roads, paving village streets, constructing schools and nursing homes, and carrying out various community service projects in rural areas such as offering free training on agriculture and compound fertilizers. Most compound fertilizer companies aim to carry out public welfare activities on scientific fertilization, so as to help more farmers understand the knowledge related to the scientific and safe use of compound fertilizer technologies. Good rain knows its season; it falls in spring. The No. 1 Central Document is like a timely rain in a drought-stricken spring, nourishing the compound fertilizer industry and supporting its growth and development. The author believes that, guided by this document, China’s compound fertilizer industry will surely overcome the economic downturn caused by the financial crisis and achieve prosperity in 2009; the future of China’s compound fertilizer industry will be even brighter!