Coal coking market discussion and exchange platform
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Coal coking market discussion and exchange platform: This platform requires communication without compromising corporate confidentiality. Communication content: Purchase and sales of raw coal, coke and ancillary products, and discussion of market trends. (Quote) Coke demand will further decline, and coking coal prices still have room to fall March 26, 2009 05:48 Source: Data provided by the China Coking Association show that in 2008, my country's coke production experienced negative growth for the first time since 1999. The China Coke Association predicts that my country's coke demand will further decline this year, possibly to 280-290 million tons. Due to the decline in coke demand, coking coal prices are also expected to have room to fall. The price of the Japan-Australia coking coal long-term agreement recently reached has dropped by 60% compared with last year. The demand for coke is still not strong in 2009. Information from the China Coking Association's Coking Industry Operation Information Release and Market Situation Analysis Conference shows that in 2008, my country's coke production totaled approximately 327 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 8.5 million tons, or approximately 2.54%, which became the first negative growth in my country's coke production since 1999. The China Coking Industry Association predicts that my country's coke demand may drop from 320 million tons last year to 280-290 million tons this year. China Coke Association believes that domestic crude steel production will likely decline this year, and direct and indirect exports of coke will also be significantly reduced. According to estimates, my country exported more than 15 million tons of coke last year, while the export of steel and other metallurgical products totaled 60-70 million tons of indirect coke exports. When analyzing the development situation of the coke industry this year, Huang Jingan, chairman of the China Coke Association, said that my country is likely to have net imports of steel in March, while coke exports will further decline. Customs data shows that from January to February this year, the country's steel exports fell by 52% year-on-year, while imported steel reached 1.09 million tons, an increase of 25% from January, mainly due to the depreciation of the ruble, partly due to the depreciation of the ruble. * * Steel exports increased, while imported steel became cheaper than domestic prices. At the same time, under the impact of the international financial crisis, domestic and foreign coke market demand has shrunk, while domestic small and medium-sized coal mines have been shut down in large areas due to safety and other reasons. The relatively high concentration of resources in large and medium-sized coal mines has made the price of coking coal stronger than the price of coke and steel. As a result, the cost of coke production will remain high, the coking product market will shrink accordingly, and the price is extremely low. The only small profit margin of coking enterprises will be severely squeezed. Huang Huangqian said that as the impact of the world financial crisis continues to emerge, the factors affecting economic development and the coke market will increase, and a considerable number of coking companies will still struggle to survive on the edge of losses this year. The supply and demand situation of coking coal resources has slowed down. Global crude steel production has declined, and the demand for coking coal has also declined. Nippon Steel Corporation, Japan's largest steel company, and the BHP Mitsubishi Alliance recently reached an agreement on the benchmark price of coking coal in 2009, which was set at US$128-129/ton, a significant decrease of 57% from last year's US$300/ton. The sharp fall in international steel production is the main reason for the continued decline in demand for coking coal. In recent years, the annual trade volume of coking coal in the world has basically been around 230 million tons, but my country's dependence on overseas coking coal is very low, and it only serves as a supplement to the lack of coking coal varieties in coastal and other local areas. Analysis by the China Coking Association believes that judging from the decline in coke consumption and the significant reduction in coke exports, it is expected that my country's coking coal demand will decrease by about 50 million tons this year, and the supply and demand situation of coking coal resources will continue to become looser. People from the China Coking Association believe that the import of some high-quality and cheap coking coal is necessary to stabilize resource supply and demand in local areas and certain periods of time or to adjust varieties and reduce production costs. However, the total import volume of coking coal will not increase significantly, and with the downward adjustment of domestic coking coal prices, the import price difference is limited. At present, coking coal prices have declined in some areas of the country, ranging from 50-100 yuan/ton. Wang Shuai, an analyst at Orient Securities, said that the decline in coal prices is mainly due to the downturn in steel prices, steel mill production cuts and the continued decline in coke prices. In the future, if the downturn in steel continues and the resumption of production in small coal mines leads to the release of production capacity, coking coal prices will face greater downward pressure. 【author: Source of Li Yangdan: China Securities Journal] (Editor in charge: Kong Jin) This post was last edited by Master Miao on 2009-3-28 22:53 ]
Coal coking products market situation, Zhongyu Information Network www.chem365.net
Now that coke production has been restricted again, we can’t sell it.~~
Thermal coal: Coal prices across the country are relatively stable. Shanxi has signed coal contracts for 2009, with a total volume of 512.67 million tons. This is a good breakthrough for the coal market, and it has finally achieved a breakthrough of zero contracts. First, the price of coal has been in line with the market price. Since last year, the market price has been higher than the actual price of coal. This year, the price of coal has gradually increased. Second, the collective overseas purchase of coal by major domestic enterprises has also had a great impact on coal mines in the domestic market. Although the domestic market will not be affected by foreign coal sources, it shows that domestic coal prices are still on the high side. This provides a good reference for domestic coal mining companies to re-price. Third, * * Thermal coal companies have been allowed to develop coal resources, and Datang Group's new main business "development and production of coal resources related to electricity" has been officially approved by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. This move is another big impact on the coal industry. Wang Haotian, an analyst at the Coal Information Trading Network, believes that this move solves the problem of coal power, and power companies will not be unable to purchase coal because of rising coal prices. Fourth, correctly understand the problem of Qinhuangdao coal inventory: Wang Haotian of the Coal Information Trading Network believes that there are two main reasons for the reduction in inventory: (1) The quantity and contracts of coal imports at major ports are decreasing, because everyone knows that the first half of the year, especially now, is the historically off-season for the coal industry, so the amount of coal purchased is first reduced in terms of input, which is the main reason for the reduction in inventory. ； (2) Since major coal-consuming enterprises have been relatively tight in coal resources from the end of last year to now, and the inventory at the end of last year has been basically exhausted, they have begun to purchase raw coal, creating an illusion that the coal industry has recovered. Therefore, it is recommended to invest cautiously in the next month. Coking coal market analysis: Starting from January, the coking coal market began to recover, mainly because the coking industry gradually resumed production and inventories were exhausted. Therefore, the coking coal market price trended at a small level from the end of January to the beginning of February. * * , the price has increased by nearly 200 yuan, but in March, as some steel prices in the steel market dropped, the price of coke gradually fell. Therefore, the coking coal market has been in a state of decline so far, and the future trend will not stop. It will continue to decline until steel prices stop falling and stabilize.
Today, the domestic coke market basically maintains a stable operation. The overall market has not changed. Only a small number of manufacturers have slightly adjusted their prices. The market inventory continues to increase. In order to digest the inventory, the market has sold goods at low prices, and the chaos has intensified. The mainstream price in Shandong is around 1,400-1,450 yuan/ton, and some low-end prices have reached around 1,300-1,350 yuan/ton. The overall market transactions are not smooth, and the range and scope of production restrictions have increased. ； Although the mainstream quotation in Shanxi is still around 1,400 yuan/ton, some manufacturers have said that there is great pressure to ship at this price. If the price is too low, they will consider not shipping for the time being. ； The Hebei coke market is operating stably, with average transactions and basically no price fluctuations. The current purchase price of secondary metallurgical coke from Hebei Steel Plant is basically around 1,600 yuan/ton. ； Coke prices in Northeast China have continued to fall by nearly 300 yuan/ton since the beginning of March. The ex-factory price of secondary coke in Qitaihe is 1,450-1,500 yuan/ton including tax, the ex-factory price of second-level coke in Jilin is around 1,500 yuan/ton including tax, and the ex-factory price in Liaoning is around 1,650 yuan/ton. Affected by the recent slight decline in coal prices and the low fluctuations in the steel market, coke prices have continued to fall. ； At present, most coking plants have measures to sell goods at low prices, but the actual trading volume is not large. It is reported that steel mills are still planning to purchase at lower prices. Coupled with the continued decline in market coke prices, coking plants are worried about further backlog of resources and are planning to further restrict production in the near future. Overall, steel mills are currently holding down inventories and are not actively purchasing. However, there is little room for further decline in coke prices. Coke costs are now inverted. It is expected that the coke market will still consolidate at a low level in the near future. 200903.31
coal tar: This week, the domestic coal tar market continues to operate steadily and rises. The main driving force for the increase is still the reduction in tar supply from various coking companies. Tight supply and rising prices are still the main theme of the current tar market. However, due to the overall downturn in the downstream tar processing product market, The resistance to rising high-end coal tar prices is gradually increasing. At present, the mainstream price of tar in Shanxi and Hebei has risen steadily to 1,900-1,950 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of coal tar in Shandong has risen steadily to 1,950-2,050 yuan/ton. Affected by the downturn in the downstream product market, the coal tar market outlook is likely to stabilize. crude benzene: The crude benzene market rose slightly this week. The production restrictions of coking companies have tightened the supply and demand of crude benzene. At the same time, the crude oil and pure benzene markets have been bullish, which has improved the downstream coking benzene and maleic anhydride markets. This has stabilized the downstream demand for crude benzene, supporting the continued rise of crude benzene prices. At present, the mainstream price of crude benzene in Shanxi and Hebei has increased slightly. It has risen to 2250-2350 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of crude benzene in Shandong, Jiangsu and other places has also risen to 2450-2550 yuan/ton. Some companies have quoted higher prices due to no inventory. However, high-end transactions are average. With the support of tight supply, crude benzene will continue to rise steadily in the market outlook. Coked benzene: The coked benzene market has increased this week compared with last week. The fluctuation of crude oil has made the market confidence of pure benzene and maleic anhydride rebound, and the intention to receive coked benzene has increased. At the same time, the high cost pressure of raw material crude benzene also supports the price of coked benzene. The current mainstream transaction price of coked benzene in Shanxi and Hebei has risen to 2950 -3,000 yuan/ton, the mainstream transaction price in Shandong is 3,100-3,200 yuan/ton, and some high-priced transactions in East China are 3,200-3,300 yuan/ton. Under the influence of the positive factors of the rising market of raw material crude benzene and downstream maleic anhydride, the market outlook for coked benzene is still likely to rise slightly. Maleic anhydride: The maleic anhydride market rose slightly this week, supported by the rising cost of raw materials, as well as the recovery of market confidence and the improved atmosphere for receiving goods. The quotations of maleic anhydride companies in various places continued to increase this week, with each company's shipments increasing and inventory small. At present, the mainstream transaction price of maleic anhydride in Shanxi has risen to about 5100-5200 yuan/ton, the mainstream transaction price of maleic anhydride in North China has rebounded to 5200-5300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction price in East China is 5400-5500 yuan. / ton, some companies have quoted prices as high as 5,600 yuan / ton or even above. However, the actual demand in the downstream unsaturated resin market has not changed significantly. The driving force for maleic anhydride to continue to rise is weak. After the price rise, the transaction volume is average, and the market outlook is likely to stabilize. Industrial naphthalene: This week, the domestic industrial naphthalene market is still declining steadily. As the downstream demand for industrial naphthalene is still weak, the market transaction atmosphere is light, and various companies are not shipping smoothly. The transaction price is still stable and falling. At present, the mainstream price of industrial naphthalene in Shanxi is stable and falling to the range of 5200-5300 yuan/ton. Some companies do not bring invoices. The transaction price is around 5,000-5,100 yuan/ton. There are also few industrial naphthalene transactions in Hebei, Shandong and other regions. The mainstream transaction price has dropped to 5,400-5,500 yuan/ton. The transaction atmosphere in various places is light. Since market demand will not improve significantly in the short term, industrial naphthalene is likely to continue to run weakly in the future. anthracene oil: The domestic anthracene oil market continues to rise steadily this week. Due to the rising price of raw material coal tar and the high intention of downstream carbon black companies to start operations, the demand for anthracene oil has increased. The anthracene oil prices of various companies are still rising slightly. The current mainstream transaction price in the market At 1950-2050 yuan/ton, some companies quoted prices as high as around 2100-2200 yuan/ton. However, due to the inability of the downstream carbon black market to follow the rise, the high-end price transaction volume is not large, and the resistance to the continued rise of anthracene oil in the future market will increase. Washing oil: This week, the domestic washing oil market is operating in consolidation. As the demand for washing oil has decreased after the coking enterprises limited production, the transaction atmosphere in the washing oil market has become weaker. Each company has a small amount of washing oil in stock, and the price is mainly stable without major changes. At present, the mainstream price of washing oil in various regions in the country is stable at around 2,300-2,500 yuan/ton, and some high-end quotations are above 2,600 yuan/ton. Under the pressure of rising raw materials and weak downstream demand, the washing oil market will continue to operate stably and consolidated. Coal pitch: This week, the domestic coal pitch market continues to operate steadily and has an upward trend. Affected by the continued rise in the price of raw material coal tar, some companies have raised their quotations, especially in the early stage, low-end transactions have decreased and prices have risen. High-end prices have not changed much. The downstream aluminum and carbon markets are still in the doldrums. The coal pitch market demand is weak, and companies are not shipping much. At present, The mainstream transaction price of domestic medium-temperature asphalt is 1,800-1,900 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction price of modified asphalt is 1,950-2,050 yuan/ton. Affected by the support of raw material costs, some companies still have intentions to increase their quotations. However, without significant improvement in downstream demand, the room for growth in the coal asphalt market is limited in the short term. Methanol: The domestic methanol market has been stable and slightly increased this week. Affected by the fluctuation of crude oil and the recent increase in electronic trading, the prices of some companies have increased slightly. However, as the downstream demand has not changed significantly, the market transaction atmosphere is still weak, and the high cost pressure has caused most companies to still maintain a low operating rate. The intention of low-price shipments is not high. Most companies are holding steady and wait-and-see. At present, the mountain The mainstream transaction price of methanol in the western region has risen steadily to 1,800-1,850 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction price in Hebei, Henan and Shandong has risen steadily to the range of 1,950-2,050 yuan/ton. Since there are currently more domestically imported methanol arriving at lower prices, and the downstream demand is still relatively limited, the methanol market is likely to stabilize in the future. sulfate an: Domestic anhydride sulfate is running smoothly this week. Due to the production restrictions of coking companies in various places, the output of anhydrous sulfate is not high. However, the recent weakening of the fertilizer market has led to a decrease in high-priced shipments of anhydrous sulfate. The price of anhydrous sulfate in various places has stabilized, and some high-end prices have slightly adjusted. Currently in Shanxi The mainstream ex-factory price of anhydrous sulfate has remained stable at around 750-800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of anhydrous sulfate in Hebei and Shandong has also stabilized at 750-850 yuan/ton. Amid the dual suppression of tight supply and weakening downstream demand, the stable operation of the anhydrous sulfate market is likely to be greater in the future. If you need any information, I will be responsible for collecting and posting. Thank you for your support. This post was last edited by Gao Xianzheng on 2009-3-31 21:58 ]
Recently, the domestic coke market as a whole is still shrouded in gloom. The downturn lasts for a long time and prices continue to fall. The weakness will be difficult to reverse in the near future. Just like this year's winter, which has lasted for a long time and is still cold, there is no end in sight. Until recently, due to the steel market showing a stabilizing trend and the cost support of still high coal prices, the decline in coke prices has narrowed. However, the overall transaction volume is still sluggish, mainly due to less demand from steel mills. In addition, the purchase price of steel mills has been lower than the bottom line of manufacturers, and some manufacturers have considered not shipping, so the market transaction volume is small. China's domestic coke market has officially entered the second quarter amid the downturn, and many people are pessimistic about the market's performance in the second quarter. This website has also done some analysis on this.: First, let’s take a look at the currently dominant steel market. The current demand for steel in the domestic real estate industry is sluggish, and steel costs have room to decline. Excess production capacity and excessive inventory have further suppressed the rebound of steel prices. Although steel market futures have been recently introduced, they cannot substantially boost the market. Therefore, it is expected that the steel market will maintain a period of low demand and low prices in the future. In this way, the coke market has to wait for the steel market to really improve before we can talk about the turning point. Returning to the raw material market, coal prices have been loosening and falling in most areas of the country recently. However, compared with the reduction in coke prices, the slight decline in coal prices has had little effect on reducing the pressure on the coke market. Therefore, manufacturers are looking for international resources. However, manufacturers are still very clear that the current international coal prices are Yes, the main reason is that due to the impact of the financial crisis, many foreign coal companies have reduced prices and sold coal due to lack of cash. Once the world economy improves, foreign coal prices will definitely rise. In the long run, purchasing domestic coal will still be their final choice, so the pressure on resource supply cannot be eased in the short term. Judging from the current upstream and downstream markets, it will be difficult for the domestic coke market to get out of trouble in the second quarter. In addition, under the impact of the international coke import domestic market and the significant reduction in domestic exports, there is still room for downward adjustments in coke prices in the short term. The extent will depend on the operating situation of the downstream market and price changes in the upstream market. In summary, the weak market pattern remains, and in the short term, the pressure on the coke market remains unabated. Reprinted from Zhongyu Information
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On April 16, coke steel plant purchase price summary regional steel plant indicator origin price (yuan/ton) adjusted North China Chenggang quasi-first-grade Shanxi - Shougang quasi-grade Shanxi 1600 - Tiangang quasi-grade Shanxi - Tangshan Iron and Steel quasi-grade Shanxi 1620- Jinxi quasi-first-class Shanxi 1650 - Xuangang quasi-first-class Shanxi - Xinggang quasi-first-class Hebei - Tianguan quasi-first-class Shanxi - Jianlong quasi-first-class Hebei, Shanxi - Delong Modern second-class Shanxi 1450 - Tangshan stainless steel quasi-first-class Shanxi 1650 - source: read: 35 dates: 2009-4-16