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Industry experts dismiss rumors of a 4% rise in coal prices

2009-04-07View Original

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The current state of the market determines that **there is no need to introduce price intervention policies.** On April 2, authorities from the Coal Transportation and Marketing Association as well as a senior executive from a state-owned coal enterprise both told the Shanghai Securities News that they had no knowledge of the Commission for Development and Reform planning to introduce some so-called coordination measure aimed at a 4% increase in coal prices.   The aforementioned official further told the Shanghai Securities News that, \"Due to slight difficulties faced by coal-fired power plants in terms of coal supply, it is true that there are reports that the National Development and Reform Commission intends to introduce price intervention measures; however, the current market conditions are very favorable, so the likelihood of this happening is low.\" ”   The reporter also learned from relevant sources that both the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Research Office of the State Council have indeed organized meetings with electricity and coal companies in recent times to discuss the supply and demand situation of coal for power generation, but they have not issued any statements regarding possible price policies.   “If the National Development and Reform Commission introduces a plan to raise coal prices by 4% now, I think it’s asking for trouble. ”Huang Teng, a senior expert in the coal industry, makes such a judgment.   However, the reporters also noted that although the current market conditions mean **there is no need to introduce price-intervention policies, such a possibility still exists; that is,** relevant departments could conduct a comprehensive assessment to accelerate the market-oriented reform of coal-fired power enterprises, thereby introducing a set of specific measures including electricity price adjustments, contract-based coal pricing, mechanisms linking electricity prices and coal prices, and resource taxes.   Industry analysts told reporters that due to the favor shown by capital markets toward the coal sector in the past two days, some people have overlooked or distorted an understanding of the fundamentals of the coal market.   Huang Teng also pointed out that the coal industry is dependent on the overall economic trend, and it will take some time for the economy as a whole to decline and adjust. “For example, the recovery of the steel industry, one of the sectors with major demand for coal, is not optimistic. ”   In response, an authoritative figure from the Coal Transportation and Marketing Association also told reporters that, as it is a traditional off-season, the coal market is not optimistic in the second quarter of this year, and there is a possibility of coal prices falling. “I expect the decline to be unlikely to exceed the contract price of 540 yuan per ton previously agreed upon between Shenhua Group and some power companies. ”The analyst noted that under these price conditions, a considerable number of power companies have already achieved profitability in the first quarter; therefore, such prices are fully acceptable to them and represent the \"bottom line\" for coal companies.   Additionally, reporters learned that due to the unresolved issue of contract coal prices, most large thermal power companies purchase coal on an accounts payable basis. This makes it difficult to determine the cost of coal that should be included in the expenses, resulting in higher fuel costs for these power companies. This situation provides them with room to increase their profits in the future.

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