The peak season has come and gone, and downward pressure on fertilizer prices is gradually emerging.
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The peak season has come and gone, and downward pressure on fertilizer prices is gradually emerging. Release date: 2009-04-16 At present, the amount of fertilizer prepared for spring plowing in Liaoning, Jilin and other places has exceeded 80%, and the amount of fertilizer prepared for Heilongjiang Province has exceeded 60%. The peak season for spring plowing fertilizer from south to north has basically ended, and the national demand for fertilizer has decreased significantly. The price of fertilizer has dropped by 50 to 200 yuan (ton price, the same below) compared with mid-to-late March. On April 8, many people from fertilizer companies generally stated in interviews with reporters that: This year's spring fertilizer season has come and gone in a hurry, and the demand for chemical fertilizers has decreased significantly year-on-year. It is difficult to say that the market outlook is optimistic. ‘The spring plowing and fertilizer preparation work in the three northeastern provinces is nearing completion, and the demand is decreasing day by day. The current ex-factory price of urea in the region is 1,800 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the retail price is about 2,050 yuan, down 200 yuan from mid-March. ； 64% The market price of high-grade diammonium phosphate is 3,150 yuan, and the price of qualified products is about 3,000 yuan, down 50 to 100 yuan from the previous high. ‘Liu Xianchen, general manager of the sales company of Hubei Huangmailing Phosphorus Chemical Co., Ltd., which is recovering payment in the Northeast region, told reporters. He believes that this year’s peak season for spring plowing fertilizers is particularly short, lasting only one month, and the demand for fertilizers has also been reduced compared with previous years. ‘This year's fertilizer market will be difficult to reproduce the continued booming trend, and price fluctuations will be very small. It is expected that the ex-factory price of urea will be difficult to exceed 2,100 yuan. ‘Guo Quanpu, director of the sales department of Henan Zhongyuan Dahua Group, also said that the ex-factory price of urea in Henan and Shandong has dropped to 1,750 to 1,800 yuan, down 150 to 200 yuan from the peak of 1,950 yuan, and the demand has significantly reduced, indicating that the spring fertilizer sales season has basically ended. The next wave of market trends may not start until after May, because May to August is the corn top dressing season in the north, and there will be a greater demand for nitrogen fertilizers such as urea. ； From August to November, the autumn and winter sowing season requires a large amount of compound fertilizer as base fertilizer, and the demand for compound fertilizer is amplified. Xue Sansheng, director of the transportation, sales and marketing department of Shaanxi Weihe Coal and Chemical Industry Group, Hou Yi, deputy director of the marketing department of Shanxi Fengxi Fertilizer (Group) Co., Ltd., and Li Changxia, marketing manager of Shandong Hongri Akang Chemical Co., Ltd., believe that there are three reasons why the fertilizer market has come and gone this year.: First, because the fertilizer market has continued to be sluggish since the second half of last year, many dealers and companies have lost confidence in this year's fertilizer market, and most of them have not prepared fertilizers. As a result, farmers' demand has slightly amplified. In some areas, the shortage of supply has pushed up fertilizer prices, which has driven the national fertilizer prices to rise rapidly by more than 50 to 200 yuan in just about 20 days. In some areas, urea and potassium fertilizers have even increased by more than 300 yuan in the short term. ‘As a result, Takong's dealers and companies have stepped up marketing and production efforts, increased the amount of fertilizers put in, balanced the relationship between supply and demand, and inhibited further increases in fertilizer prices. Second, in order to protect the interests of farmers and ensure sufficient domestic supply of chemical fertilizers and stable prices during the peak fertilizer season, since the second half of last year, * * The amount of fertilizer commercial off-season reserves was significantly increased, and when fertilizer prices started to rise in mid-to-late March, storage companies were required to sell fertilizers as soon as possible, resulting in a sudden increase in the supply of fertilizers on the market and curbing the rise in fertilizer prices. Third, affected by the persistent dry weather since last winter, the demand for chemical fertilizers for spring plowing has been significantly reduced this year, which has also led to the unsustainability of the chemical fertilizer market. Xue Sansheng believes that this wave of market started in the Northeast region. Now that the fertilizer preparation period in Northeast China has ended, the market will naturally end. Although in the southwest region, due to the shutdown of Lutianhua Group for maintenance and the temporary shutdown of Yuntianhua Co., Ltd. and Chongqing Jianfeng Chemical General Plant for some reason, the market supply is slightly tight. However, because the demand for fertilizers in this region is very small, and most of the fertilizers originally sold to the Northeast are now redirected to the Southwest, this has dampened the confidence of dealers. Therefore, the southwest region, which is currently the only region with a strong fertilizer market, also faces an embarrassing situation of having prices but no market. Once Yuntianhua and other companies resume production and increase the supply of fertilizers in southwest China, local fertilizer prices will fall, which will inevitably drag down national fertilizer prices again. Li Changxia raised another concern: From what we know, the national demand for spring plowing fertilizers this year has dropped by 20% to 30% compared with the same period in previous years. Stimulated by the rising market prices from February to March, more than 80% of enterprises across the country resumed production and even achieved high or full capacity production. At present, the domestic excess production capacity of both nitrogen fertilizers and phosphorus compound fertilizers is more than 30%. The already reduced demand for fertilizers will become more prominent as many companies struggle to produce and exports are hopeless, and the market will weaken in the future. At present, the ex-factory price of urea is mostly around 1,800 yuan, and the ex-factory price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate is 1,750 yuan, which has basically bottomed out. ； However, the ex-factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate remains at 2,850 yuan, the ex-factory price of 45% ternary compound fertilizer is about 2,300 (chlorine-based) to 2,500 yuan (sulfur-based), and the ex-factory price of potassium chloride is about 3,750 yuan. Although they have dropped by more than 35% from the same period last year, they are still higher than people's psychological expectations. The absolute price is still high, and there is still room for further decline. ； The price of potash fertilizer is nearly 4,000 yuan, which is even more difficult for ordinary people to accept. At present, major potash fertilizer consuming countries such as China, India, and Brazil import very little potassium fertilizer. International potash fertilizer giants are facing insufficient operating rates and increasing inventories. There is a great risk of a downward trend in potassium fertilizer prices in the future. Once potash fertilizer, the leading variety in this round of fertilizer price increases, falls sharply, it may drive the price focus of other fertilizer varieties downward. However, everyone agrees that, supported by factors such as strong domestic coal prices, especially the tight supply of anthracite coal and slight price increases, the price of urea and other nitrogen fertilizers will have very limited room for decline in the later period, and may find strong support at 1,700 yuan, and the domestic fertilizer market will not undergo a deep correction.
my country's coal price increase is about to become a fact 2009-4-16 The coal and electricity negotiations that have been in a stalemate for more than three months are coming to an end, and "coal price increase" has become the general trend. Even power generation companies that have always insisted on not accepting price increases admit that it "is about to become a fact." It is reported that Yudean is eyeing Vietnamese coal, although * * Relevant departments have intensively coordinated the 2009 key thermal coal contract negotiations between power and coal companies in March, and power company executives have recently stated that the price of key thermal coal is expected to be lower than last year. However, an authoritative person from the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association said that Shenhua and China Coal have signed more than 70% of coal sales contracts, and coal companies will not give up the 540 yuan/ton pricing for key thermal coal contracts. CICC recently released a report saying that Shenhua China Coal has signed most of the coal sales contracts. Even if the coal company makes another concession of 30 yuan, that is, the contract price in 2009 was 510 yuan/ton, which is more than 10% higher than last year's contract price of about 460 yuan/ton. Han Yong, a coal industry analyst at CICC, pointed out that Shenhua’s coal sales target this year is 220 million tons, and the signed contract can guarantee the completion of 80% of the sales target. ； China Coal has also signed contracts accounting for 77% of this year's target. The reporter also learned that among local power generation companies in Guangdong, except for central power companies such as Huaneng and Datang, the rest have basically signed price increase contracts, with an increase of about 11%, and the number of contracts signed has also increased. Yudean Group also said that in order to ensure the supply of coal, it has made preparations for rising coal prices and imported coal from Vietnam, Australia and other places to dilute the pressure of rising domestic coal prices. “The import volume will also have a big breakthrough compared with previous years, reaching about 30% of the group's coal demand." It is reported that other power generation companies in Guangdong are also in close contact with Vietnamese coal companies and have great intentions to sign contracts. Coal imports will increase. According to statistics recorded by Guangzhou Customs, a total of 2.595 million tons of coal were imported into Guangdong ports from January to February this year, an increase of 4.6% over the same period last year. Among them, 1.684 million tons were imported in February alone, an increase of 73%, setting a new high for single-month imports since 2008. According to industry insiders, Vietnam has become Guangdong’s main source of goods. More importantly, Vietnam * * It was decided to lower the export tax rate for coal products from 20% to 10% starting from February 5. It is foreseeable that international coal imports will continue to rise steadily. Professionals from the Guangdong Coal Transportation and Marketing Association said that it will put pressure on domestic coal prices in the short term, but in the medium and long term, the supply of domestic coal is far greater than that of imported coal, so the impact will not be significant.
Domestic urea prices are still declining slowly: On April 28, 2009, domestic urea prices were still declining slowly. The urea market in Hebei, Henan, and Shandong is still mired in internal and external troubles. At present, urea manufacturers in these areas have difficulty receiving orders from other provincial markets. Although manufacturers rely on a small amount of goods from the local industrial market to survive, they cannot change the current situation of weak market, and the overall price still shows a slow downward trend. The sowing season will be fully entered around the May Day holiday in Northeast China. Fertilizer sales are still finishing the work. The market volume is already very small, and there are reports of dealers selling goods at low prices from time to time. The ex-factory price of manufacturers has also declined. The current mainstream ex-factory price in Northeast China is around 1,850 yuan/ton, with high-end prices of 1,910 yuan/ton and low-end prices of 1,800 yuan/ton. However, the sales situation is generally not good. The urea market in the Hunan and Guangxi regions also continues to maintain a sluggish trend, with the overall price declining slightly. The current mainstream quotation in Hubei is 1,780-1,810 yuan/ton, the mainstream quotation in Hunan is 1,800-1,830 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex-factory quotation in Guangxi is around 1,850 yuan/ton. Compared with last week, the average price has dropped by about 10 yuan/ton. The domestic urea market is currently in the off-peak season, and some manufacturers have taken the opportunity to suspend production for maintenance. However, this maintenance does not last too long, usually lasting about a week. Regarding the late-stage market, manufacturers in various places generally hold a pessimistic attitude. With increased production capacity, reduced demand, and obvious contradictions between supply and demand, it is difficult for the domestic urea market to perform well. The peak fertilizer season from June to July is coming soon. If the market is stable, market stocking may start in early May. If the situation is not good, it may be postponed to the middle of May. According to the performance of manufacturers in various places some time ago, if the market improves, some manufacturers will definitely take the lead in adjusting ex-factory prices. However, due to the current situation of oversupply, the rebound may not last too long and the magnitude will not be too large. In the short term, the overall price may still continue to decline slightly.
When did China establish a national reserve system for fertilizers?: On April 28, 2009, "the detailed rules of the petrochemical industry adjustment and revitalization plan clearly stated that my country will implement the * * reserve system. ” An expert who participated in drafting and has obtained the detailed rules for the adjustment and revitalization of the petrochemical industry told a CBN reporter. This means that my country’s fertilizer “state reserve” system has been established. He told reporters that the detailed rules did not disclose the total amount of national reserves of fertilizers. The national reserve system for fertilizer reserves has been established. The source said that the plan may be announced to the public in the near future. Sources say the details may be announced this week. As another key reserve system in the petrochemical industry after oil reserves, the "fertilizer state reserve" system has always attracted attention. According to Xu Bin, a researcher at Changjiang Securities, strengthening * * The main reason for fertilizer reserves is undoubtedly to balance supply and demand. “Although my country has excess production capacity of nitrogen fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer in 2009 (10 million tons and 7 million tons respectively), this does not mean that the market supply is sufficient. ” Fertilizer companies stopped production and restricted production at the end of last year and at the beginning of this year. Xu Bin explained that this is related to insufficient natural gas supply and low fertilizer market prices. Therefore, the market supply will be insufficient. If using stable * * reserve, will * * alleviate these situations. What our country is implementing is a commercial fertilizer reserve system. Last year, my country's commercial fertilizer storage capacity was 8 million tons, while this year it is 16 million tons. Compared with commercial reserves, the state reserve will play a greater role in stabilizing market prices. A person from the China Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association feels that it is currently difficult to fully implement commercial reserves, “because commercial reserves are the behavior of the company itself, and everything is based on profit. At this stage, although the sales volume of phosphate fertilizer is increasing, the profit is very poor. Enterprises are not very motivated to reserve. If prices continue to fall, there will be great operating risks. ” In the first two months of this year, my country's fertilizer revenue was 55.5 billion yuan, an increase of 2.9% ； Operating profit was only 490 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 86% ； The operating profit of the phosphate fertilizer industry fell by 145.6% year-on-year. “ * * Once reserves are established, they are * * Behavior. ”Xu Bin said that the market price of chemical fertilizers fluctuates greatly. Once the price rises, people will be dispatched. * * Reserves can stabilize market prices and benefit farmers. The number of reserves has not been determined. The number of national reserves of fertilizers that has been specially discussed in the industry has not been included in the detailed rules. This newspaper once exclusively reported that the core content of the discussion at that time was: This year the central fertilizer reserve will be 5 million tons, and in 2010 the total reserve will be 10 million tons. Xu Bin said that the concealment of the number may be due to * * I don't think it's necessary to publish it. This is like * * The food reserves are the same, and they are not disclosed to the outside world. However, Liang Bin, a researcher at CITIC Construction Investment, has a different idea.: “It's not time to announce the numbers now. The reserve number will still be disclosed to the outside world. * * Reserves basically refer to off-season reserves. Off-season reserves are generally from October of the current year to March of the following year, and the annual release of fertilizer commercial reserve figures is also in the second half of the year. ” * * The National Development and Reform Commission once announced that 16 million tons of commercial reserves account for a quarter of my country's spring plowing fertilizers. Liang Bin predicts, * * The reserves may mainly consist of two products: ammonium phosphate and urea. Last year, my country's urea production was approximately more than 56 million tons. The total demand for diammonium phosphate and urea this year is approximately 60 million tons. CBN reporters also learned that the details also mentioned that other petrochemical reserves will be established, such as actively carrying out refined oil reserves, but rubber reserves are not included in the plan. For refined oil reserves, the content in the detailed rules is consistent with the previous opinion draft. The expert once told reporters that it was recommended to reserve 3 million tons in 2009, 6 million tons in 2010, and 10 million tons in 2011. Moreover, strong support for overseas mergers and acquisitions of oil companies and key domestic refining and chemical projects are all reflected in the detailed rules. The aforementioned experts who revealed the details also said that in the future * * There may also be a project catalog aimed at encouraging more local companies to advance important petrochemical projects.