Analysis of aromatics and downstream industries at home and abroad
Thread Content
1.1 Overview Aromatic hydrocarbons (BTX) are important raw materials in the petrochemical industry; downstream products derived from them are widely used in the manufacture of synthetic materials (plastics, fibers, and rubber), organic compounds, and various intermediates. Benzene is widely used in the production of fine chemical intermediates and organic raw materials. While toluene is used for the disproportionation to produce benzene and xylene, its main industrial applications lie in the manufacture of fine chemical products and intermediates such as nitrotoluene, benzoic acid, benzaldehyde, and cresol. In addition, it is used extensively as a cheap solvent in coatings, adhesives, inks, and pesticides. The main applications of xylene in the chemical industry are in the production of terephthalic acid and phthalic anhydride. It is also used in large quantities as a cheap and low-toxicity solvent. The consumption of mesitylene is lower; it is primarily used for the production of isophthalic acid and isophthalonitrile. 1.2 Overview of Aromatic Hydrocarbon Production and Downstream Industries Abroad 1.2.1 Situation of Aromatic Hydrocarbon Production Abroad The production of aromatic hydrocarbons (benzene, toluene, xylene) in the world is primarily concentrated in Asia, North America, and Western Europe. In 2007, the world’s production capacity for aromatic hydrocarbons was 106.332 million tons per year, with a production volume of 88.738 million tons. Of this, the production capacity for pure benzene was 49.524 million tons per year, and its production volume was 40.571 million tons ； The toluene production capacity is 27.527 million tons per year, with a production volume of 20.946 million tons ； The production capacity for p-xylene is 29.281 million tons per year, while the actual output is 27.221 million tons. World aromatic hydrocarbon production in 2007, in units of 10,000 tons/year: Region – Benzene, Toluene, Xylenes; Capacity, Production. Africa: 15.0, 9.4, 9.0, 7.0; 0.0, 0.0. Asia: 1993.0, 1803.4, 1280.3, 1089.0; 1879.7, 1880.1. Central and Eastern Europe: 370.0, 235.0, 166.6, 63.0; 54.1, 43.4. Middle East: 264.1, 190.3, 162.7, 93.5; 171.5, 128.0. North America: 1130.7, 845.2, 724.7, 567.8; 549.5, 429.0. Oceania: 9.0, 5.5, 2.0, 2.2; 0.0, 0.0. Latin America: 155.2, 118.1, 91.9, 64.0; 24.3, 19.5. Western Europe: 1015.4, 850.2, 315.5, 208.1; 249.0, 222.1. World total: 4952.4, 4057.1, 2752.7, 2094.6; 2928.1, 2722.1. In terms of sources and production technologies, the main sources of pure benzene worldwide include catalytic reforming, cracked gasoline, toluene disproportionation, coal coking, toluene hydrodealkylation (HAD), and others. Of this, the amount of benzene produced from cracked gasoline was 17.63 million tons, that from catalytic reforming units was 14.33 million tons, the amount produced from coking processes was 1.82 million tons, and the amount produced by toluene disproportionation units was 5.87 million tons. These figures represent 43.4%, 35.3%, 4.5%, and 14.5% of the world’s total benzene production, respectively. There are mainly two production routes for toluene: the catalytic reforming route, which is the primary method of production and accounts for around 72% of the world’s toluene output ； Aromatic extraction is also an important method in petroleum hydrocarbon cracking, accounting for over 23%. There are also sources such as the recovery of toluene from coal tar, and toluene produced as a by-product in the production of p-xylene. In the past, p-xylene was mainly extracted and separated from reformed oil and cracked gasoline. With the rapid development of the PTA industry, the demand for p-xylene has been increasing steadily; extraction and separation techniques alone are no longer sufficient to meet industrial needs. Therefore, in industry, toluene disproportionation and alkylation methods are commonly used to increase the production of xylene, with C8 aromatic isomerization being employed to further boost the production of p-xylene. From 2002 to 2007, Asia and the Middle East were the regions with the fastest growth in pure benzene production worldwide. In Asia, the annual average increases in capacity and production were 6.2% and 8.1%, respectively, while in the Middle East they were 4.7% and 2.7%, respectively. According to the construction and expansion plans, the world’s production capacity for pure benzene is expected to reach 60.1 million tons per year by 2012, an increase of 10.57 million tons per year compared to 2007. The new production capacity will still be concentrated mainly in Asia and the Middle East, where production is set to reach 49.17 million tons. From 2002 to 2007, Asia was the region with the fastest growth in world toluene production, with annual increases in capacity and output of 6.1% and 8.1% respectively. It is estimated that by 2012, the world’s toluene production capacity will reach 30.12 million tons per year, an increase of 2.6 million tons per year compared to 2007. The new production capacity will be concentrated mainly in Asia and the Middle East, and by then toluene production will amount to 22.24 million tons. From 2002 to 2007, global PX production capacity increased by 8.365 million tons, with the new capacity mainly concentrated in Asia. It is expected that between 2007 and 2012, the growth rate of global PX production capacity will be faster than in the previous five years. However, the focus of this growth will remain in Asia. Meanwhile, the Middle East will continue to increase investment in the petrochemical industry, resulting in a significant rise in PX production capacity in that region. By 2012, the world’s PX production capacity is expected to reach 43.1 million tons per year, with output amounting to 34.48 million tons. In summary, it is estimated that in 2012 the world’s production capacity for aromatic hydrocarbons (benzene, toluene, and xylene) will reach 133.32 million tons per year, while output will amount to 105.89 million tons. The new capacity and output will be concentrated mainly in Asia; meanwhile, production capacity and output of aromatic hydrocarbons in the Middle East are also expected to see significant growth. 1.2.2 Current Status and Development Trends of Foreign Aromatic Hydrocarbon Downstream Industries World-wide, pure benzene is primarily used in the production of ethylbenzene, isopropylbenzene, cyclohexane, and ***; other derivatives include alkylbenzenes, chlorobenzene, and maleic anhydride. In 2007, the global consumption of pure benzene was 40.835 million tons, of which approximately 21.51 million tons were used in the production of ethylbenzene, accounting for 52.7% of the total consumption of pure benzene ； 7.76 million tons were consumed in the production of isopropylbenzene, accounting for 19.0% of the total consumption of pure benzene ； The production of cyclohexane consumes 4.98 million tons, accounting for 12.2% of the total consumption of pure benzene. It is expected that world demand for pure benzene will continue to grow at a rapid pace during the period 2007–2012, although the growth rate will be slower than in the previous five years, at an average annual increase of 3.8%. By 2012, world demand for pure benzene is expected to reach 49.17 million tons. The consumption structure remains dominated by ethylbenzene, isopropylbenzene, and cyclohexane; among these, the proportion of ethylbenzene and cyclohexane has decreased slightly, while that of isopropylbenzene has increased slightly. It is estimated that in 2012, isopropylbenzene will account for 19.9% of the consumption of pure benzene, an increase of nearly 1 percentage point compared to 2007 ； Cyclohexane, on the other hand, dropped from 12.4% in 2007 to 12.2% in 2012 ； Ethylbenzene, on the other hand, dropped from 52.7% in 2007 to 52.0% in 2012. World benzene consumption structure and forecasts in 2007: World toluene is primarily used for the production of benzene, p-xylene, solvents, and gasoline; other derivatives include TDI, phenol/propanol, etc. In 2007, the global consumption of toluene was 20.629 million tons, of which approximately 6.81 million tons were used in the production of pure benzene, accounting for 33% of the total toluene consumption ； 4.74 million tons were consumed in PX production, accounting for 23% of the total toluene consumption ； 2.68 million tons of solvents were used in production, accounting for 13% of the total toluene consumption ； 2.06 million tons were consumed in gasoline production, accounting for 10% of the total toluene consumption ； The production of TDI consumed 1.03 million tons, accounting for 5% of the total toluene consumption. It is expected that global toluene consumption will continue to rise during the period 2007–2012, though at a moderate pace. By 2012, global demand for toluene is projected to reach 22.24 million tons, at which point the world’s toluene utilization rate will drop to 74%, a decrease of about 2 percentage points compared to 2007. Looking at the consumption structure of toluene, toluene dealkylation or disproportionation will remain the main downstream applications in the coming years; by 2012, the share of pure benzene production in the toluene consumption structure is expected to rise to 37% ； Meanwhile, the annual growth rate of PX usage is 1.5%, and its share of the total demand for toluene will remain around 23% ； Due to the growing emphasis on environmental protection, demand for toluene as a solvent and in gasoline is growing slowly, and its share will continue to decline. World toluene consumption structure and forecast in 2007
5.3 Overview of Domestic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Production and Downstream Industries 5.3.1 Domestic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Production 5.3.1.1 Pure Benzene As of the end of 2008, there were over 60 companies in China engaged in the production of pure benzene, with a total production capacity of around 5.87 million tons per year; the actual output was 40.034 million tons. These companies are mainly part of the Sinopec Group, CNPC Group, as well as steel and coal enterprises. Petroleum benzene mainly comes from Sinopec and CNPC, while coking benzene primarily comes from steel and coal coking companies. The production volumes of the main benzene producers in China in 2008 are shown in the table below. Overview of the main pure benzene producers in China in 2008. Unit: 10,000 tons. Sequence Number, Producer, Capacity, Output, Source: 1. Sinopec Yangzi Petrochemical Co., Ltd.: 44.0, 38.4; Refining/Ethylene. 2. Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd.: 27.4, 23.9; Refining/Ethylene. 3. Shanghai Sinopec Petrochemical Company: 26.4, 23.6; Ethylene. 4. CNPC Jilin Petrochemical Branch: 26.3, 24.7; Refining/Ethylene. 5. Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd.: 22.0, 22.0; Refining. 6. Sinopec Maoming Branch: 21.1, 21.3; Refining/Ethylene. 7. Qingdao Lidong Chemical Co., Ltd.: 19.4, 18.2; Toluene aromatics. 8. CNOOC Shell Petrochemical Company: 19.1, 19.8; Ethylene. 9. Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical Branch: 18.2, 17.1; Refining/Ethylene. 10. Sinopec Yanshan Branch: 17.1, 17.8; Refining/Ethylene. 11. CNPC Liaoyang Petrochemical Branch: 15.9, 17.9; Refining/Ethylene. 17. Others: 330.1, 158.7; Refining/Ethylene. Total: 587.0, 403.4. In the coming years, China’s petrochemical industry is set to enter a period of rapid development. The increase in pure benzene production will come from new ethylene plants, aromatics extraction units associated with PX projects, newly expanded refinery reforming units, upgraded aromatics processing units, as well as newly built coking benzene hydrogenation and refining units. Among the new capacity additions, petroleum benzene will still play a dominant role. 5.3.1.2 Toluene: China’s toluene production has seen rapid development in recent years; there are currently over 30 manufacturing enterprises. In 2008, the production capacity was 2.41 million tons per year, with a production volume of 1.52 million tons, representing an increase of 3.1% compared to 2007. Currently, 71.2% of China’s toluene production capacity comes from the Sinopec and CNPC groups, while the toluene output from other toluene producers has been increasing in recent years. In terms of sources, petroleum toluene accounts for 92% of China’s total toluene production, while coking toluene and crude benzene refining together make up 8% of the total production. The statistics on the production capacity and production status of China’s major toluene manufacturers in 2008 are shown in the table below. Overview of China’s major toluene producers in 2008. Unit: 10,000 tons/year. Sequence Number, Manufacturer, Production Capacity, Output, Source: 1. Lanzhou Petrochemical: 24.3, 8.6 – Petroleum toluene; 2. Qingdao Lidong: 16, 10.5 – Petroleum toluene; 3. Shanghai Sinopec: 14, 11 – Petroleum toluene; 4. Maoming Petrochemical: 12.2, 10.3 – Petroleum toluene; 5. Fushun Petrochemical: 11.4, 8.6 – Petroleum toluene; 6. Jinling Petrochemical: 11, 11.9 – Petroleum toluene; 7. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical: 10, 13 – Petroleum toluene; 8. Jilin Petrochemical: 9.6, 6.9 – Petroleum toluene; 9. Dushanzi Petrochemical: 8.2, 8.3 – Petroleum toluene; 10. Changling Refining & Chemical: 7.8, 5.9 – Petroleum toluene; 11. Yangzi BASF: 7.6, 6 – Petroleum toluene. Others: 108.9, 51. Total: 241, 152. In the coming years, China’s new toluene production capacity will still be concentrated in the Sinopec and CNPC groups, mainly resulting from aromatic extraction in refineries and as a by-product of ethylene cracking. Furthermore, as new technologies are increasingly applied to the reprocessing of coal tar, a certain amount of coking toluene will still be present, but its share will decline. 5.3.2 Current Status and Development Trends of Domestic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Downstream Industries 5.3.2.1 Pure Benzene In 2008, China’s apparent consumption of pure benzene was 4.293 million tons; the main downstream derivatives include styrene, phenol, caprolactam, ***, maleic anhydride, chlorobenzene, and nylon 66 salts, among others. The consumption structure of pure benzene in China in 2008 and the forecast for 2010 are shown in the table below. Consumption structure and forecast of pure benzene in China in 2008. Unit: 10,000 tons, %. Consumption areas: 2008, 2010; Average annual growth rate for 2008–2010. Consumption volume, Percentage; Demand volume, Percentage. Styrene: 212.0, 49.4; 311.0, 49.1; Average annual growth rate: 21.1. Phenol: 47.0, 10.9; 88.0, 13.9; Average annual growth rate: 36.9. Caprolactam: 23.2, 5.4; 44.0, 6.9; Average annual growth rate: 37.8. ***: 57.0, 13.3; 105.0, 16.6; Average annual growth rate: 35.7. Maleic anhydride: 47.7, 11.1; 42.0, 6.6; Average annual growth rate: -6.2. Chlorobenzene: 31.7, 49.4; 31.5, 5.0; Average annual growth rate: -0.3. Others: 10.7, 2.5; 12.5, 1.9; Average annual growth rate: 8.1. Total: 429.3, 100.0; 634.0, 100.0; Average annual growth rate: 21.5. Styrene is the main downstream product of pure benzene. In 2008, domestic styrene production was approximately 2.653 million tons, with about 2.122 million tons of pure benzene being consumed. In recent years, the growth rate of styrene consumption in China has been around 16%. Although the annual growth rates of production capacity and output exceed 25%, these still fall short of demand, resulting in a need to import large amounts of styrene and its downstream products each year. The next few years will still see substantial growth in China’s styrene production capacity, with more new construction and expansion projects being carried out one after another. It is estimated that by 2010, China’s styrene production capacity will reach around 4 million tons per year; at that time, the demand for pure benzene in this sector will be 3.11 million tons. The average annual growth rate of pure benzene consumption in this sector from 2008 to 2010 will be 21.1%. Phenol: Phenol is one of the main downstream products of pure benzene in China. In 2008, China’s phenol production was around 570,000 tons, with almost all of it being produced using the cumene process; this process consumed approximately 480,000 tons of pure benzene, accounting for 11.1% of the total consumption of pure benzene in the country. In 2010, China’s phenol production capacity could approach 1 million tons. As production capacity continues to expand, the demand for pure benzene in this sector will inevitably increase. It is estimated that the demand will reach 880,000 tons by 2010, with an average annual growth rate of 36.9% in the consumption of pure benzene equivalent in this sector from 2008 to 2010. Caprolactam: In 2008, China’s actual production capacity for caprolactam was 370,000 tons per year, with a production volume of 290,000 tons; 232,000 tons of pure benzene were consumed in this process. Although the production of caprolactam in our country has been increasing steadily year by year, the domestic market coverage rate remains at around one-third in recent years; as a result, large quantities of caprolactam and its downstream products still need to be imported each year. In 2008, the import volume of caprolactam was 450,100 tons. The new production line at Shijiazhuang Chemical Fiber Company is set to be completed soon, and the caprolactam project of Hengyi Group is also expected to be put into operation by 2010. By then, China’s caprolactam production capacity will reach 670,000 tons, of which about 500,000 tons will be produced using benzene as the starting material; the amount of pure benzene consumed will be around 440,000 tons. The annual growth rate of pure benzene consumption in this sector from 2008 to 2010 is expected to be 37.8%. *** In China,*** almost all of it is used for the production of aniline, which is then used to manufacture MDI and polyurethanes. In recent years, with the rapid development of the polyurethane industry, the supply of *** has also increased significantly. In 2008, domestic *** production decreased compared to 2007, reaching around 970,000 tons, with 620,000 tons of pure benzene being consumed. With the development of MDI and the associated aniline production, it is estimated that the consumption of pure benzene in this industry will reach 1.05 million tons by 2010, with an average annual growth rate of 35.7% in pure benzene consumption in this sector from 2008 to 2010. Maleic anhydride is primarily used in the production of unsaturated polyester resins and various fine chemical products. Currently, the dominant production method for maleic anhydride worldwide is the butane oxidation process, which accounts for about 80% of the total capacity for maleic anhydride production. Due to limitations in resource availability, maleic anhydride is mainly produced in China using the benzene oxidation method; some imported plants that use the butane oxidation process operate at low capacities owing to issues with the supply of raw materials. In 2008, China’s capacity for producing maleic anhydride was around 980,000 tons per year; the output of maleic anhydride produced by the benzene process was 477,000 tons, with approximately 477,000 tons of pure benzene being consumed in this process. It is expected that the amount of pure benzene consumed for succinic anhydride production in 2010 will drop to 420,000 tons, with an average annual decline rate in consumption of pure benzene in this sector between 2008 and 2010 of -6.2%. Chlorobenzene: The demand for chlorobenzene is primarily driven by the production of nitrochlorobenzene. Currently, China’s production capacity for chlorobenzene is around 500,000 tons; in 2008, the output was estimated at 450,000 tons. Approximately 317,000 tons of pure benzene were used in its production, accounting for 2.8% of the total consumption of pure benzene. It is expected that China’s chlorobenzene production will decline slightly in 2010, to 420,000 tons. By that time, the consumption of pure benzene resulting from chlorobenzene production will be 315,000 tons, accounting for 5.0% of the total consumption of pure benzene. Others: In addition to the products mentioned above, pure benzene is also used in alkylbenzenes, **solvents, etc. In 2008, the consumption of pure benzene in other sectors was approximately 107,000 tons, accounting for 2.5% of the total equivalent consumption of pure benzene. In summary, the apparent domestic consumption of pure benzene in 2008 was 429.3 tons. Despite the impact of the financial crisis, the construction of downstream facilities for pure benzene in China will remain at a high level in the coming years; the demand growth rate is expected to reach 21.5%, with domestic demand for pure benzene reaching 6.34 million tons by 2010. From the perspective of the consumer sector, demand is growing rapidly in the areas of styrene, phenol, caprolactam, and ***. 5.3.2.2 Toluene: In 2008, China’s production of toluene was 1.52 million tons, with a net import volume of 272,000 tons; the apparent consumption volume was 1.792 million tons, representing a 6.6% decrease compared to 2007. The downstream consumption of toluene in our country is mainly concentrated in solvents, PX, TDI, and other chemical products. Chemical products mainly include nitrotoluene, benzoic acid, tolnaamine, benzyl chloride, TDI, cresol, etc. In terms of solvents, there are pesticides, coatings, inks, etc., among which solvent and toluene disproportionation represent the most important downstream uses of commercial toluene. The consumption structure and forecast of toluene in China in 2008 are shown in the table below. The consumption structure and forecast of toluene in China in 2008: In 2008, approximately 800,000 tons of toluene were consumed in the solvent industry, accounting for 50% of the total toluene consumption. As environmental awareness grows and environmental regulations become more stringent, the growth in the use of toluene as a solvent is expected to be constrained in the coming years. However, China’s coating industry is in a phase of rapid development, and traditional aromatic solvents cannot replace toluene in the short term; as a result, the proportion of solvents in toluene’s overall consumption will gradually decline. The disproportionation sector consumes approximately 320,000 tons of toluene (which is purchased by PX manufacturers), accounting for 18% of the total toluene consumption. As some enterprises without upstream supporting facilities will also invest in PX projects in the coming years, the demand for toluene in the disproportionation sector is set to increase rapidly, and this sector will become the main driver behind the growth in toluene demand. In the coming years, the sector with the fastest growth in toluene consumption will be TDI production. BASF’s 130,000 tons per year TDI plant in Shanghai is already in operation, and Cangzhou Dahuahua as well as Gansu Yinguang also have plans to expand their production capacity. It is expected that China’s TDI production capacity will exceed 500,000 tons in 2010, and the demand for p-toluenes will increase as well. Apart from the aforementioned areas, there will also be a slight increase in demand for toluene in other sectors, but the growth rate will not be significant. It is estimated that by 2010, the domestic demand for toluene will reach 2.31 million tons.
Basic chemical raw materials have always been a key area for investment, and it is unclear whether there has also been an overheating in investments in this sector.
Currently, overcapacity is a common issue; the key is to leverage one’s own advantages to reduce costs and achieve higher profits than other manufacturers.
I’m stunned; this market report should have been written by me
{:1_90:}Have learned it :P Hope to use the latest version