Fuzzy predictions about the methanol market trend in East China in mid-to-late November

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This post was finally edited by jsdggfghhg at 2009-11-16 20:11 after comprehensive analysis and information from multiple parties.: 1. The methanol market in Shandong is mainly stable. Among them, although the snowfall in the east and west of Shandong has ended, the early snow on the roads has not been cleared, the highway is still closed, and some enterprises' truck shipments are blocked. The market is expected to rise slightly. ； Judging from the market linkage effect, the methanol market in central and eastern Shandong and southern Shandong will also rise slightly on a stable basis. 2. Recent external market trends: The United States rose slightly, Europe was stable, and China fell slightly. 3. Jiangsu spot market prices remain stable, with quotations rising slightly. 4. Methanol downstream aspects: Affected by the previous increase in the price of raw material methanol, the formaldehyde market in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai has a strong atmosphere of rising. The average operating load of local formaldehyde installations is about 50% the same as in the previous period. In terms of dimethyl ether, the northern market is officially heating, and liquefied gas resources are mainly flowing southward. This may not be able to support the recovery of local dimethyl ether prices, and overall low-price operations will continue to be maintained. ； As the weather clears up, raw material transportation is expected to return to normal, and the output of some dimethyl ether companies may begin to rebound, but the extent will be limited. In the domestic glacial acetic acid market, the glacial acetic acid market continues to consolidate downwards. Buyers continue to have a bearish attitude towards the market outlook, and the demand itself is relatively weak. Therefore, acetic acid trading in various places is light, and the market is dominated by a wait-and-see atmosphere. 5. Methanol upstream aspects: Coal prices "rather than fall, instead rise". Coal prices at Qinhuangdao Port have continued to rise since the National Day. Although international oil prices fluctuate, the weakening US dollar is a deep-rooted trend, so the macroeconomic outlook for oil prices remains unchanged. 6. Methanol inventory: As of the end of October, according to incomplete statistics, the national methanol social inventory was around 540,000 tons, which was once again reduced by nearly 25% compared with the end of September. Social inventories in coastal areas of East China (including Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Shandong) fell by 32% compared with the end of September, of which Jiangsu inventories fell by 31% and Ningbo inventories fell by 37%. To sum up, it is expected that throughout the winter, spot methanol prices in East China will rise slightly while remaining basically stable under the influence of various factors.