It is more reasonable to calculate direct liquefaction investments in terms of how much per ton of product oil?
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This post was last edited by jordan569 on 2013-1-6 21:39. Brother Fossil: Your article was extremely useful! In one of your recent articles on coal-to-oil conversion, you raised an issue stating that \"small-scale coal-to-oil projects are doomed to losses.\" What exactly does \"small scale\" refer to – projects with a capacity of less than several tens of thousands of tons? For coal-to-oil direct liquefaction plants with a capacity of around 200,000–300,000 tons, those operating at reaction pressures of several tens of megapascals and reaction temperatures between 350–450 degrees Celsius, it is reasonable to estimate the fixed asset investment in terms of cost per ton of product oil Is the estimate of 6,000 yuan per ton too conservative or too optimistic? On the forum, I was wondering if everyone could share the investment amounts or production capacities of their coal-to-oil projects, so that we can all have a better understanding. Aren’t everyone working hard for coal-to-oil production in our country anyway? For sharing among fellow countrymen, to progress together. . Note $ # , $ $
The capital investment required for coal liquefaction is relatively high, especially for the coal gasification stage. Both syngas used in indirect liquefaction and hydrogen used in direct liquefaction depend on coal gasification; the investment in this stage accounts for 60% or more of the total investment. With a smaller scale and lower output, the total investment may not necessarily decrease significantly; what is necessary still has to be invested. The time required to recover the investment will be very long. If it’s a state-owned enterprise, that’s one thing, but for private capital, it’s better to invest in real estate as it yields faster returns. Generally speaking, whether it is direct liquefaction or indirect liquefaction, if a brand new plant is built with a capacity of less than 500,000 tons, the total investment could range from several hundred million yuan per 10,000 tons to almost 200 million yuan per 10,000 tons; as the capacity increases, the investment drops to around 100 million yuan per 10,000 tons. If it is a modification based on existing devices, the investment will be much lower. For direct liquefaction on a scale of two to three hundred thousand tons, if a new plant is built, calculating costs at 6,000 yuan per ton of oil might be acceptable if investment recovery is not taken into account; however, taking investment recovery into consideration would likely result in overly optimistic figures. You can find data on the investment costs and production capacities of several indirect liquefaction facilities in China by checking the financial reports of listed companies; for example, Yitai’s annual report contains relevant information, and I have shared it before. I’m also an amateur when it comes to investing, so I can’t say much. You might find this post useful: http://bbs.hcbbs.com/viewthread.php?tid=610712
During the feasibility study for direct coal liquefaction at that time, it was said around 2000 that profitability could be achieved when oil prices exceeded $26 per barrel. Another later claim was $45