How is the number of casualties and property damage in an accident assessed? What approach do people use for this?

It can be divided into two cases, I guess. The first is the analysis of the consequences of fire accidents, and the second is the analysis of the consequences of explosion accidents. The analysis of the consequences of fire accidents can be carried out by referring to the criteria regarding the impact of thermal radiation on human health, as well as the criteria related to its effect on equipment and property. This analysis can be conducted from the following aspects: 1. Analysis of the consequences of pool fire accidents ； 2. Analysis of the hazards caused by flash fires ； 3. Analysis of the consequences of BLEVE accidents. The analysis of the consequences of explosion accidents is conducted from two aspects, namely the damage caused by shock wave overpressure and the threshold for structural failure: 1. Analysis of the consequences of vapor cloud explosion accidents ； 2. Analysis of the consequences of physical explosion accidents. I don’t quite remember how to calculate it specifically; I’ll just outline the approach here, and I hope the original poster can look up relevant information on their own.

Generally speaking, it involves starting from the model of accident consequences, along with models for evacuation times and so on, to carry out calculations; back then, gray system theory wasn’t very effective, and now I’m frustrated