Current Status and Future Prospects of Global Butadiene Supply and Demand

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In recent years, the world’s production capacity for butadiene has been growing steadily. From 2002 to 2008, the world’s styrene industry maintained a relatively stable development trend, with production capacity increasing from 10.003 million tons in 2002 to 12.107 million tons in 2008. In 2009, production capacity increased significantly as several new or expanded butadiene plants were put into operation in Asia. By the end of 2009, the total global production capacity for butadiene had reached approximately 12.716 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.03%. Of this, the production capacity in North America is 2.774 million tons per year, accounting for 21.82% of the world’s total butadiene production capacity ； The production capacity in Central and South America is 365,000 tons per year, accounting for 2.87% of the total production capacity ； The production capacity in Western Europe is 2.504 million tons per year, accounting for 19.69% of the total production capacity ； The production capacity in Central and Eastern Europe is 929,000 tons per year, accounting for 7.31% of the total production capacity ； The production capacity in the Middle East and Africa region is 415,000 tons per year, accounting for 3.26% of the total production capacity ； Asia’s production capacity is 5.729 million tons per year, accounting for 45.05% of the total production capacity. Currently, 97% of the world’s butadiene production capacity uses the cracking of C4 mixtures for extraction, while the remainder employs butane, n-butylene, or ethanol dehydration processes. In the coming years, as several new or expanded butadiene production facilities come online in the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region, world butadiene production capacity is expected to grow at an average annual rate of around 2.8%. By 2103, the total global butadiene production capacity is projected to reach approximately 14.6 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of about 5.0% in Asia and about 11.5% in the Middle East. In 2009, the global total consumption of butadiene was 9.4 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 3.7%. Of this, consumption in North America accounts for about 23.0% of the world’s total butadiene consumption, while Western Europe accounts for 20.5%, and Central and Eastern Europe accounts for 6.6% ； Central and South America account for 3.4% of total consumption, Africa and the Middle East account for 1.6%, and Asia accounts for 4.80%. In the consumption structure, the amount used for styrene-butadiene rubber accounts for approximately 31.7% of the total consumption, polybutadiene rubber accounts for 27.5%, nitrile rubber accounts for 4.1%, neoprene accounts for 2.0%, hexamethylenediamine/1,6-hexanediamine accounts for 4.3%, ABS resin accounts for 12.4%, styrene-butadiene polymer latex accounts for 12.4%, and the remaining amount is used for other purposes, accounting for 5.7%. It is expected that world consumption of butadiene will grow at an average annual rate of about 2.7% in the coming years, with total consumption reaching approximately 10.581 million tons by 2013. Currently, the global trade in butadiene is concentrated in three main regions: Asia, North America, and Western Europe. In recent years, with the rapid development of the ethylene industry in the Middle East and Asia, the Middle East will gradually play a larger role in the world’s butadiene trade, while Asia will shift from being a net importer to a net exporter.