Ask about the BDO market situation!
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Could any industry expert come and talk about the BDO market situation at home and abroad? If possible, they could also discuss the progress in BDO technology.
It is expected that domestic BDO production capacity will exceed 1 million tons in 2015, leading to a risk of overcapacity. According to statistics, it is estimated that during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, global consumption will grow at an average rate of around 5% per year, while consumption in China will grow at an average rate of around 10% per year. Global consumption in 2015 is expected to reach around 2 million tons, while consumption in our country will be close to 700,000 tons. The additional production capacity will become apparent in 2011 or 2012. Among the new production capacities added at present, some manufacturers have upstream raw material production lines, but lack downstream supporting facilities. Based on current market demand, BDO’s new production capacity will far exceed market needs, and the BDO market will face the risk of overcapacity in the future. However, if there is growth in consumption in the relevant downstream sectors, it will enable the absorption of some of the additional production capacity, thereby reducing the risk of overcapacity in the BDO market. Overall, the growth drivers in downstream consumption are mainly seen in industries such as PBT and PTMEG. At the same time, the growth of the PU industry in the future cannot be underestimated either. The current tight supply situation in BDO is mainly due to the fact that July is a low-season for production, resulting in falling prices and little inventory held by downstream users. As the production season approaches, raw material prices rise and there is no inventory available with downstream users, which leads to a surge in demand. Additionally, manufacturers experience unstable production, thus causing an imbalance between supply and demand in the market in the short term
Reply to 2# TH373637: No specific content! For example, the distribution of production capacity at 1 million tons and the timing of commissioning, or an analysis of projects that are under construction, planned to be built, or in the planning stage. Thank you!
Reply 3# terephthalic: The 55,000-ton/year BDO/THF plant owned by Yunnan Yunwei and Nanjing Lanxing is operating at near full capacity. The BDO plant of Shandong Zhongya Chemical is running smoothly, with an operation rate of around 80-90%. The BDO plant of Lutianhua Company has a high operation rate, while the production of its downstream derivatives such as GBL remains low. The BDO plant of Shanxi Sanwei is operating normally, with an operation rate of around 80-90%. A signing ceremony was held in Hebi City, Henan Province, for the transfer of the technology for producing 100,000 tons/year of 1,4-butanediol (BDO) from Shanxi Sanwei Group to Henan Meihua He Mei Group. Heemei Group is a subsidiary of Henan Coal and Chemical Group. The 600,000 tons per year methanol plant and the 450,000 tons per year calcium carbide plant, which are currently under construction, are progressing rapidly, with both projects scheduled to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2011. To accelerate the conversion of methanol and calcium carbide products and increase their added value, a 100,000-ton/year 1,4-butanediol production project has been launched, to be constructed in two phases, with the first phase having an capacity of 50,000 tons/year
----The following information is derived from data published on the Internet – the production capacity that has already been established in China (potential plans for expansion or renovation): Shanxi Sanwei has a capacity of around 160,000 tons (it remains the leader in China; its plant with a capacity of 75,000 tons, which uses the DPT process, is already in operation. It is said that this plant’s designed capacity is 100,000–120,000 tons, and it is likely that no new plants will be built in the next two years)； Xinjiang Meike Chemical: 60,000 tons (with a plan to add another 100,000 tons; using the Invidia process, EPC provided by China Chengda, December 2010) ； Nanjing Lanxing: 55,000 tons (Phase II plans to add 5*20,000 tons of maleic anhydride and 55,000 tons; EPC provided by China Tianchen, September 2010). Sichuan Tianhua: 25,000 tons (plans to add 40,000 tons to support downstream operations) ； 30,000 tons in Meizhou Bay, Fujian ； Shaanxi Shanhua 30,000 tons ； Yunnan Yunwei 25,000 tons ； Shandong Jiatai: 25,000 tons (with a plan to build an additional 40,000-ton facility) ； Jiangsu Dalian Chemical: 35,000 tons.
----The information is sourced from online searches – projects planned or under construction include Chongqing Jianfeng with a capacity of 100,000 tons (Invidia, 2009)； Henan Heemei 100,000 tons (3D process, 2010) ； Shaanxi Huahua Bidiu 100,000 tons ； Zhejiang Huachen 55,000 tons (DPT, 2009) ； Zibo Jiazhou: 55,000 tons per year (DPT process, 2009). It’s no problem to achieve a production capacity of over one million tons; the issue is the rush to do so again.
It’s fine as long as some manufacturer produces the downstream products; BDO made a profit this year
Does anyone know what BDO production has been up to October this year?
By around 2013, China’s BDO production capacity was expected to reach 1.2 million tons, but the domestic capacity to absorb such output was only 600,000 tons; thus, there would be a surplus of 600,000 tons. To ensure the healthy and orderly development of this industry, **the relevant authorities need to get involved in advance, otherwise it will lead to severe overcapacity in the industry. It cannot afford to remain unable to recover, just like the methanol industry after 2000.
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