**Are there no relevant restrictive policies for coal-based olefin projects?

**The National Development and Reform Commission requires that projects involving more than 600,000 tons of olefins be approved before construction can proceed, and such approvals must be sought from them. Yet local authorities still approve various olefin projects; even if they refuse approval, one can find other ways around it, as you understand.

Reply to fossil zhang: Industrial demonstration requires several years of successful operation experience; it’s not possible to start building factories everywhere just because you have just begun testing the system or haven’t started operating it yet – that goes against the rules!

Reply to 3# xunyuan119: You’re right, but these days too many things are done without following scientific principles. Coal-to-olefins is still relatively good – at least large-scale industrial plants have been successfully put into operation. As for coal-to-oil, there aren’t any such plants yet; many people want to build million-ton-scale facilities before even small-scale demonstration projects have been successfully implemented. What can we do? Driven by interests, many people don’t act in a proper manner; what is there we can do?

Reply to 4# fossil-zhang: Boss, the development of coal-to-oil production has been brought under control; such activities are no longer allowed to proceed unchecked. Shenhua’s plant with a capacity of one million tons can be considered a model facility, and there are no other projects for direct coal liquefaction at present. It is said that operations there are going fairly well, but in my opinion it serves only as a strategic reserve. It’s not suitable for widespread adoption at this stage, after all, oil prices remain quite competitive!

Reply to 4# fossil-zhang: The plants for producing olefins from coal on a scale of tens of thousands of tons have been successfully operated. Even when scaled up, they still need to be implemented after demonstration, as it is after all a new technology – there are no precedents of large-scale plants built abroad yet!

Reply to 5# xunyuan119: For direct liquefaction, no one other than Shenhua would undertake projects of such a large scale. Look at indirect liquefaction – do you know how many projects of this kind are currently pending approval by the National Development and Reform Commission, as well as those that have been carried out secretly without prior approval? However, even for demonstration projects of over 100,000 tons, there are still issues to be resolved regarding the technologies for these preparations or ongoing projects. However, the coal-to-olefins plants that are already in operation or have been running for some time are all industrial facilities with a capacity of over 500,000 tons. Of course, there will be problems, and the technology needs to be tested over a long period of time; but at least at this scale, I believe the technology for coal-to-olefins is relatively more mature. Why have coal-to-olefins projects sprung up like mushrooms after rain following the success in Baotou? While it’s possible that some of these projects were initiated out of recklessness, deception, or under false pretenses, there are certainly those that underwent thorough research and evaluation. After all, not everyone has plenty of money to waste on such projects, as they involve investments in the tens of billions. So, let’s not talk about policies or national affairs; to be honest, we won’t come to any conclusions. Even if we do come up with some ideas, after all, we don’t live in Zhongnanhai, nor are we high-ranking officials in the Development and Reform Commission. It is they who make the decisions, and whether they will listen to public opinion is something only heaven knows.

Reply to 6# xunyuan119: Ten-thousand-ton class? Are you referring to coal-based olefins? Take a look again at the scale of coal-based olefins production at Shenbao, Ningmei, and Datang The 10,000-ton-scale demonstration of DMTO technology in Huaxian was a long time ago – it’s history now. Scale up coal-based olefins to five or six million tons? How old? Millions of tons? What size of methanol synthesis plant would be required for that? Please take another look at Hai Chuan’s introduction to these projects; I’m afraid you might make a mistake.

Reply to 8# fossil-zhang: Maybe I didn’t explain myself clearly. What I mean is that for DMTO plants with a capacity of 10,000 tons, they need to operate successfully for some time first; when scaling up to capacities of several hundred thousand tons, only one pilot plant should be built. After this pilot plant operates successfully for a few years, lessons can be learned and technologies can be improved, after which other projects with capacities of several hundred thousand tons can proceed on a larger scale. What I want to say is that projects involving hundreds of thousands of tons are progressing too quickly at the moment. Actually, we are just here to discuss issues and share our personal views. As for large enterprises, they certainly have their own perspectives on investments in the order of hundreds of billions, and those perspectives are far beyond what we can conceive. Indirect liquefaction has at least several decades of successful experience in South Africa, and it is also carried out on a large scale.

Reply to 9# xunyuan119: Driven by profit, many people can’t wait that many years, haha. Indirect liquefaction of coal and natural gas has existed for a long time; it was used in Germany during World War II, and today Sasol operates in South Africa and Qatar, while Shell is active in Qatar and Malaysia. Even in the early days after China’s liberation, this technique was employed. Although other countries have been operating for many years, the experience belongs to them; China’s own such experience has been lost. Experience must be accumulated over time by one’s own efforts – it cannot be learned simply. China is not short of money, nor of people or technology, but it lacks experience. Moreover, many people are too impetuous.

Reply to 10# fossil-zhang: Hehe, actually this is a good thing for those of us who study coal chemical engineering. In recent years, there have been good employment opportunities in this field at our university, and the demand for professionals will only increase in the coming years! The moderator still hasn’t gone to bed at this late hour and is still here to serve us – thank you so much!