What is the future of BDO? Does the alkyne-aldehyde method really have any advantages? With so many projects underway…

The BDO market isn’t saturated yet; I think it’s feasible, as everything is produced in a coordinated manner. The market is currently optimistic

The production of BDO via the alkyne-aldehyde method does not yield high profits; on the contrary, its by-product, propargyl alcohol, generates considerable profits. Now, it is actually necessary to study the improvement of catalysts in order to increase the yield of propargyl alcohol.

Currently, the production process of maleic anhydride esterification followed by hydrogenation is used, and this is the best method

1,4-Butanediol is produced via the alkyne-aldehyde method; firstly, the raw materials (calcium carbide, formaldehyde, hydrogen) are readily available and inexpensive； Secondly, BDO still has a strong market presence at present; in the future, if the market for BDO becomes saturated, it could move towards downstream products with higher added value—such as PTMEG and GBL~

The alkyne-aldehyde method can only be used in central western regions, where the supply of raw materials is secure. The advantages of maleic anhydride hydrogenation are evident; the entire eastern region uses DPT Company’s technology. To be honest, the alkyne-aldehyde method is doomed to failure sooner or later.

BDO has shown a downward trend in recent years, with its price dropping from 25,000 to over 13,000 at present. More equipment will come online next year, and as for BDO alone, its future prospects look uncertain

Eliminating outdated production capacity is an inevitable trend in the future, and increasing exports is also a solution

Following the common practice in China, whether it is the alkyne-aldehyde method or other methods, as long as the product can be manufactured, it will ultimately face the same fate as industries such as steel, pesticides, and photovoltaics. The outcome is surely high pollution, severe overcapacity, price dumping that leads to retaliation from foreign countries, and an industry on the verge of collapse. Don’t say that this or that method doesn’t work; just look at the projects that have started in Xinjiang. As long as those so-called policy biases persist, a large number of succinic anhydride production facilities will shut down. Overcapacity is only a matter of time, and price cuts will be inevitable in the future.

It’s hard to say which of the two main methods for producing 1,4-butanediol is better or worse. The alkynal method uses inexpensive raw materials; although the production process is slightly longer, efficiency and profitability should remain good once a certain scale is reached. Moreover, the upstream processes can make use of some of the existing facilities from coal chemical manufacturing processes. Moreover, the Repofa method is after all a mature technology. The anhydride method has a simple process, but its raw materials are highly affected by the petrochemical market; if crude oil prices rise further, its profit margin will be reduced. I strongly disagree with some netizens who believe that the introduction of any chemical manufacturing facilities in China will lead to a market surplus. Surplus is merely a relative concept, as the market evolves and changes over time. To give another example, South Korea’s refining capacity far exceeds its domestic demand, yet there has never been any talk of an oversupply in that sector; they can export other petroleum products. Some Chinese enterprises are not used to coordinated joint operations; if small chemical companies receive proper and effective guidance from the industry, it will not lead to negative consequences. Once the chemical industry takes on a form of giants and oligarchs, it becomes easy to make profits. But it takes time and opportunity to create giants and oligarchs.

This post was last edited by lspt2003 on 2013-2-5 09:37. The vision outlined here is quite ambitious, but it won’t be that easy to bring it to reality. With local fragmentation and intellectual property protection remaining merely on paper, how long can you expect a project or a technology to sustain itself? Can it be compared to the level of patent protection abroad? Living from one meal to the next will make anyone feel lacking in strength. Because development wasn’t done at the time; they were too busy copying. Don’t blame others if they plagiarize you; in most cases, you can only endure it. Don’t think that by working hard, we can achieve perfection in just three years. In this world, there are plenty of smart people. If you can do it, other companies will be able to develop and implement it even faster than you. As long as the starting point is similar, in the end the industry will end up with a scale that does not match its profits. It’s not surprising that there’s no money for further development. Someone asked where the money earned now comes from Look at our surrounding environment, consider the safety accidents that occur, and then take a look at the meager incomes of the vast majority of people – it should then become clear. The industrial chains of the vast majority of our enterprises are not long nor complete, and they are often constrained by factors related to the end market; this situation has not changed to date. I also have no clear preference for BDO. The key lies in the policy orientation, which is more favorable to the alkyne-aldehyde method. But then again, if everyone goes to Xinjiang to invest, what will happen to the water resources there? What to do about pollution? Does doing this mean one has to go to places where nothing grows in order to survive? I don’t know; there’s no answer. I hope oil prices don’t fluctuate wildly.