Economic analysis of methanol-to-olefins based on the data from Kaichuan Shang
Thread Content
This post was last edited by jordan569 on 2013-1-6 at 21:25. Economic benefit analysis of olefins produced from coal and methanol: All analysis data are taken from HaiChuan HaiYou’s post; everyone is welcome to share their opinions. Analysis template: Analysis and comparison of Ningbo Heyuan’s 300,000-ton propylene and 500,000-ton ethylene glycol project: Analysis of olefins produced from coal and those produced from purchased methanol. Investment in the target facility: 5.85 billion yuan for Ningbo Heyuan’s facility. If the coal-to-olefins project is invested in Ningbo, the amount is estimated to be 18 billion yuan. The locations are all envisioned to be near the ports along the coast of Ningbo. Analyze project price data: Collect current market prices in Ningbo, East China; coal and methanol are priced at 90% of the market rate. Main raw materials: Coal, adjusted price: 1,100 yuan/ton (including tax); Methanol: 2,800 yuan/ton (including tax). Main products: Polypropylene: 12,000 yuan/ton (including tax); Ethylene glycol: 8,400 yuan/ton (including tax); Other by-products: 5,000 yuan/ton (including tax). Comparison between coal-based olefins and methanol-based olefins: Plan for 300,000 tons of polypropylene and 500,000 tons of ethylene glycol. I. Project revenues (in ten thousand yuan): Sequence Number, Project Name, Revenue after VAT: 1. Polypropylene: 307,692.3; 2. Ethylene glycol: 358,974.4; 3. Others: 51,282.1; Total: 717,948.7. II. Costs of coal-based olefins (in ten thousand yuan): Sequence Number, Project Name, Expenditures after VAT: 1. Coal (adjusted to the overall energy consumption for olefin production): 399,059.8; 2. Catalysts and chemicals for olefin production: 32,906.0; 3. Other costs related to polypropylene: 24,359.0; 4. Other costs related to ethylene glycol: 33,333.3; 5. Total cost associated with the production facilities: 280,341.9; Total: 770,000.0. Costs of methanol-based olefins (in ten thousand yuan): Sequence Number, Project Name, Expenditures after VAT: 1. Methanol: 430,769.2; 2. Energy consumption for olefin production: 82,564.1; 3. Catalysts and chemicals for olefin production: 20,940.2; 4. Chemicals and energy consumption related to polypropylene: 24,359.0; 5. Chemicals and energy consumption related to ethylene glycol: 33,333.3; 6. Total cost associated with the production facilities: 102,564.1; Total: 694,529.9. Note: # ) # # , . hcbbs
I’m about to graduate and haven’t started working yet, so I don’t know much about this area.
Based on the data provided by the poster, it can be calculated as follows: 1. The cost of coal-based olefins other than the total cost associated with the equipment (in ten thousand yuan): 489,658.1 ten thousand yuan； 2. Other costs of methanol-to-olefins aside from the total cost associated with the equipment (in 10,000 yuan): 591,965.8 million yuan ； 3. The owner’s estimate is based on an investment of 5.85 billion yuan in methanol-to-olefins projects. The investment for coal-based olefin projects is based on 18 billion ； This conditional assumption results in coal-based olefins having lower benefits compared to methanol-based olefins. What needs to be verified is the difference in actual investment.
Reply to 4# juna8908: In fact, these figures reflect the current situation in the East China region; methanol is not profitable at all, while the main profit source for coal-based olefins lies in coal itself.
Based on the data provided by the poster, it can be calculated that the annual production capacity of methanol for the coal-based olefins project should be 1.8 million tons. The investment required is 12.15 billion yuan; with a depreciation period of 15 years, the annual depreciation cost amounts to 1.8225 billion yuan. The investment cost per ton of methanol is 1,012.5 yuan. It’s not clear what proportion this represents of the total cost of methanol production
The data from Ningbo Heyuan can only be used as a reference; it is said that, as a private enterprise, it tries to save money wherever possible and prefers to use domestically produced components, so its investment levels are certainly low.
The last edit to this post was made by kinge2000 on 2011-12-26 at 10:25. Reply to 6# juna8908: The standard coal consumption for 1 ton of methanol is 1.78 tons. Based on a cost of 1100 yuan per ton of standard coal, the energy cost per ton of methanol is 1958 yuan. Adding your cost of 1012.5 yuan plus any additional taxes, the total cost of methanol should exceed 3100 yuan per ton (including taxes). Methanol to olefins at this price is uncompetitive in the current market.
The coal equivalent consumption for one ton of methanol is 1.5 tons, and this already includes the fuel coal. At a cost of 1,100 yuan per ton of coal equivalent, the energy cost per ton of methanol amounts to 1,650 yuan. This indicates that there is already a certain level of profitability in the production of methanol from coal. In China, methanol is also produced from coke oven gas, at a lower cost. Ningbo is located by the sea, so it can make extensive use of imported methanol.
The main processing steps for coal-based polyethylene and polypropylene: production of raw coal, processing of methanol, processing of ethylene and propylene, and processing of polyethylene and polypropylene. According to the normal profit distribution rules, the total profit from coal-based polyethylene and polypropylene should consist of profits from five distinct stages: the production of raw coal, the processing of methanol, the processing of ethylene and propylene, and the processing of polyethylene and polypropylene ； If the production of raw coal, as well as the processing of methanol, ethylene and propylene, and polyethylene and polypropylene, are carried out by two different producers. At present, since the majority of the total profits from coal-based polyethylene and polypropylene go to coal producers, the profits from methanol processing, as well as from the processing of ethylene and propylene and the production of polyethylene and polypropylene, have been reduced. This is what leads to the current situation in the coal chemical industry: only those who possess coal resources have the right to process it. The same is true for coal-fired power plants at present; as a result, some of them have ceased operations.