The global LNG market is about to enter a new round of \"buyer’s market\" conditions”

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　　As new production capacity comes online one after another, by 2026 the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will shift from tight to relatively ample, and the world will enter a new round of \"buyer’s market\" conditions. 　　According to the latest forecasts from various agencies, as new production capacities come online, by 2026 the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will shift from tight to relatively ample, and the world will enter a new round of \"buyer’s market\" conditions. Given the overall slowdown in demand growth, prices are expected to fall accordingly. However, the drop in prices will encourage major importing countries such as Asia to increase their purchases, and with Europe stocking up during this period of low prices for the heating season ahead, demand is expected to see a slight boost. Overall, constrained by factors such as geopolitical risks and slowing economic growth, the increase in demand is limited; this wave of increased LNG supply is likely to continue until 2029. 　　Increasing production capacity puts pressure on prices. According to the latest forecasts from S&P, Kepler, and Rigzone Energy, by 2026, at least 35 million tons per year of additional LNG production capacity will come online globally, with the majority coming from the United States and Qatar ； Global LNG supply is expected to reach 460 million to 484 million tons, with an annual growth rate that could be as high as 10%. 　　The International Energy Agency points out that between 2025 and 2030, projects currently under construction or for which final investment decisions have been made will add nearly 300 billion cubic meters of new LNG production capacity to the market each year. The world is set to experience the largest wave of LNG capacity expansion to date. The Golden Pass LNG project along the Gulf of Mexico coast and the expansion project of the North Field in Qatar will be the main sources of growth. Among them, the Golden Pass LNG project is expected to begin operations in mid-2026, while the expansion project of the Northern Gas Field is expected to be completed by 2028. In addition, the U.S. Corpus Christi LNG project and Plaquemines LNG project, the ***LNG Canada project, as well as the GTA projects off the coast of Senegal and Mauritania will also contribute to increased production. 　　In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration noted that in 2025, U.S. LNG exports are expected to rise by 26%, and this growth will continue through 2027, albeit at a slower pace. 　　Rystad Energy forecasts that annual U.S. LNG production will rise from 105.4 million tons in 2025 to 208.4 million tons in 2031, peaking at around 244 million tons in the following decade. 　　Reuters believes that the increase in supply will keep prices in check. In 2026, the average spot price of LNG in Asia is expected to range between $9.90 and $12.45 per million British thermal units ； The European benchmark, the Dutch TTF natural gas price, is expected to fall between $9.50 and $9.74 per million British thermal units, below the average level of $14.20 per million British thermal units in 2025. 　　Recently, Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for natural gas prices at the Henry hub for 2026 to $3.75 per million British thermal units, while keeping its forecast for 2027 at $3.80 per million British thermal units. 　　The market is generally issuing warnings about an oversupply of LNG, but producing countries such as Qatar and the UAE still believe that energy demand will remain strong in the future, pointing out insufficient investment in supply over the medium to long term. 　　Demand in Asia and Europe remains robust. For many years, Asia has been a steady market for LNG demand. Kepler data shows that by 2025, 64% of the world’s LNG exports will go to Asia. Driven by lower prices spurring spot purchases, fuel switching, and inventory replenishment, Asian LNG demand is expected to grow by 4%–7% in 2026, with India being one of the main drivers of this growth. Kepler predicts that India’s LNG demand will increase by 5–10 million tons by 2026. 　　Europe will also continue to absorb new supply. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe has become a key driver of global LNG demand. Oil Price Network notes that EU LNG imports as a whole are set to increase by 25% in 2025, with annual imports from the United States rising by as much as 60%. Currently, Europe is the largest market for U.S. LNG; over 50% of U.S. LNG exports go to Europe ； Russia is Europe’s second-largest source of LNG imports, and import volumes are set to reach new records in 2025 as well. 　　According to Kepler’s estimates, by 2025 Europe will import over 100 million tons of LNG, and in 2026 European LNG imports are expected to increase by 22 million tons, reaching around 145 million tons. Wood Mackenzie Energy pointed out that Europe is ready to absorb a large volume of new LNG supplies. In the short term, it will see strong incremental demand. It is expected that LNG imports will increase by approximately 20 million tons in 2026. This is largely driven by higher gas injection volumes resulting from the depletion of winter inventories, as well as a decline in natural gas prices that stimulates consumption within the region. 　　In July 2025, the United States and the European Union reached a historic trade agreement under which the EU agreed to purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products over three years, including LNG, crude oil, and nuclear fuel. However, according to foreign media reports on January 22, the European Parliament decided to suspend the consideration of subsequent legislation regarding the US-European trade agreement indefinitely. 　　It should be noted that industrial activity in Europe remains weak, as does economic growth, and these two factors are the main drivers of LNG demand. This seems to imply that demand for LNG in Europe is unlikely to experience further significant growth. 　　New LNG corridors are emerging in Africa. It is worth noting that Africa is also set to become a key player in LNG supply, with new LNG corridors emerging in Sub-Saharan Africa. Industry experts believe that sub-Saharan Africa, which holds over 70% of Africa’s exploitable resources, is overtaking Egypt, Algeria, and Libya – the continent’s traditional natural gas hubs – to drive most of the future production growth. 　　Data compiled by Oil Price Network indicates that LNG exports from sub-Saharan Africa are expected to surge from 35.7 billion cubic meters in 2024 to 98 billion cubic meters by 2034, representing an increase of nearly 175%. 　　The GTA project will be the highlight among them. The project relies on the giant transboundary offshore gas field of Greater Tortue Ahmeyim, whose estimated recoverable reserves exceed 15 trillion cubic feet. Gas production began in January 2025, and the first shipment of LNG was exported in April of the same year; Mauritania and Senegal subsequently became LNG exporting countries. Once Phase 1 of Greater Tortue Ahmeyim is fully operational, it is expected to have an annual production capacity of around 2.3 million tons. Phase 2 will add another 2.5 to 3 million tons to this capacity; the final decision regarding investment has not yet been made, with construction expected to begin in early 2028. The Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique is also worth noting; its target annual production capacity is 18 million tons. A final investment decision is expected to be made in 2026, with LNG shipments starting and stable production being achieved by 2030. 　　Driven by the synergy between resource endowments and market demand, as well as by policy improvements, technological innovations, and regional cooperation, the LNG market in sub-Saharan Africa is rapidly taking shape. However, challenges such as political instability and weak infrastructure still exist in some areas. 　　RuiZiDe Energy points out that as global LNG supply enters a new phase of growth, supply providers need to not only reconsider the sources from which they obtain gas, but also consider where the additional LNG shipments can be reliably unloaded and brought into the market. For a long time, the final investment decision for LNG projects and the signing of long-term LNG contracts have been key areas of focus in the industry. However, as the global LNG market gradually moves toward a structural supply surplus, how to access available downstream facilities, namely regasification capacity, is becoming another key factor affecting the trend of the LNG market.