Goldman Sachs raises its oil price forecast for 2026

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　　According to Sinochem New Network, in its latest report Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasts for oil prices in the fourth quarter of 2026; the expected prices for Brent and New York crude oil have been increased by $6 each, to $60 and $56 per barrel respectively. The adjustment is mainly based on OECD crude oil inventories being lower than expected, but Goldman Sachs still maintains its estimate of an average daily supply surplus of 2.3 million barrels for the whole year. 　　Goldman Sachs analysts noted that the increase in crude oil inventories at the OECD Pricing Center did not occur as expected, reflecting the supply disruptions in January and the fact that most of the global surplus supply is accumulating in the form of sanctioned crude oil \"stuck at sea.\" The bank currently assumes that only 19% of the global inventory increase will be reflected in OECD business inventories, which is lower than the previously estimated 27%. Approximately 25% of the excess supply will accumulate in the form of seaborne storage of Russian and Iranian crude oil, reflecting the persistent shortage of demand for sanctioned crude. Excluding this floating inventory, the effective excess supply would be reduced to 1.7 million barrels per day. 　　Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast of a global oil supply surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day in 2026, a projection based on the assumption of no major supply disruptions and no peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. The agency expects Brent crude prices to fall to $60 by the end of 2026, which it considers to be the cyclical low. 　　Looking further ahead, Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to strengthen starting in 2027, with average prices for Brent and New York crude futures at $65 and $61 respectively in 2027, rising to $70 and $66 by December 2027. This forecast is based on \"solid demand growth and a slowdown in supply growth from non-OPEC countries.\" Given that OECD inventories have not yet accumulated significantly, Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to begin gradually increasing production starting in the second quarter of 2026.