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Recently, several major petrochemical companies such as Saudi Aramco, SABIC, Qatar Energy, Singapore’s PCS, Indonesia’s Chandra Asri, and South Korea’s Yeochun NCC have successively issued force majeure declarations and announced significant reductions in production or even shutdowns of their operations. This has led to an increasing expectation of tighter market supply, driving up the price of ethylene glycol. On March 6, the main continuous contract for ethylene glycol continued to rise strongly, with a daily increase of over 4%, reaching a high of 4,399.00 yuan per ton. Since the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on February 28, this contract has seen a weekly increase of over 18%, making it one of the products in the polyester industry chain that is most affected by geopolitical factors. 65% is imported from the Middle East; ethylene glycol is the most sensitive commodity in this context. It is the commodity in the polyester industry chain that is most directly affected by geopolitical events in the Middle East. It is not merely a result of cost transmission, but rather the combined effect of three factors: high dependence on imports, a high concentration of supply sources in the Middle East, and disruptions to single transportation routes. Looking at the global production capacity distribution, the total global capacity for ethylene glycol is currently around 58.85 million tons. Asia holds the leading position with a share of 67%, while the Middle East ranks second as a production hub, accounting for 19% of the total capacity. Thanks to its abundant oil and gas resources, the Middle East is able to dominate the global export market by virtue of its cost advantages. Data shows that as the world’s largest producer of polyester, China is dependent on imports of ethylene glycol to the extent of 28%, with 65% of these imports coming from the Middle East. By 2025, China will import 5.03 million tons of ethylene glycol from the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia accounting for 55% of this amount; Kuwait and Oman each account for 5%. The high degree of concentration of supplies from this region makes the domestic market highly sensitive to any changes in supply from there. More importantly, the goods from the three major ethylene glycol exporting countries – Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Oman – all need to be transported via the Strait of Hormuz. As a vital route for global energy shipping, this strait serves as the key pathway for chemical products from the Middle East to reach other parts of the world. With disruptions to traffic across the strait, suspensions of shipping services, or soaring surcharges, these factors have directly led to strong expectations in the market of supply disruptions for ethylene glycol. This reliance on a single transportation route further amplifies the impact of geopolitical events on the ethylene glycol market. Meanwhile, several petrochemical companies in Southeast Asia and East Asia, such as Singapore’s PCS, Indonesia’s Chandra Asri, and South Korea’s Yeochun NCC, have announced force majeure due to supply disruptions; as a result, their plants have been forced to operate at reduced capacity or shut down, leading to growing concerns regarding tighter supplies of key chemical products like ethylene glycol. Supply contraction coupled with cost support have initiated a period of trend-driven price increases. On the supply side, various events have had a direct impact on China’s ethylene glycol import market; the production activities and export trade of major oil-producing countries in the Middle East are affected by conflicts, which in turn affects the volume of ethylene glycol imported into China, thus impacting the stability of domestic supply. Currently, there is a strong expectation of supply contraction in the market. From a cost perspective, the events in the Middle East have driven up international crude oil prices. Since the production of ethylene glycol is closely linked to the crude oil industry chain, rising crude oil prices directly increase the cost of ethylene glycol production, providing strong cost support. In terms of trade flows, supply disruptions in the Middle East will lead to a restructuring of global ethylene glycol trade patterns. Adjustments in the transportation routes for some supplies and delivery delays will further exacerbate the imbalance between supply and demand in regional markets. Looking at price trends, in the short term, the supply-related disruptions resulting from these events will drive short-term fluctuations in ethylene glycol prices, while cost factors will act as a support for maintaining those prices. In the medium to long term, if the situation continues to escalate and leads to an increased shortage of ethylene glycol globally, it will drive ethylene glycol prices into a period of sustained upward trend. The leading advantages are evident; Rongsheng Petrochemical has the highest production capacity. At present, China’s ethylene glycol industry is characterized by a decentralized structure, but the leading companies, thanks to their concentrated production capacities and complete industrial chains, are the ones that benefit the most from the current geopolitical situation in the upstream segment of the polyester industry. Among them, Rongsheng Petrochemical ranks first among private enterprises with a production capacity of 2.4 million tons per year, followed by Shenghong Refining & Chemical and Satellite Chemical with capacities of 1.9 million tons per year and 1.82 million tons per year respectively. These leading companies will fully reap the benefits of rising prices and volumes in this industry. The fluctuations in the ethylene glycol market triggered by recent geopolitical events in the Middle East will accelerate resource consolidation within the industry. Leading companies such as Rongsheng Petrochemical, Shenghong Refining & Chemical, and Satellite Chemical, thanks to their advantages in terms of production capacity, costs, and integrated supply chains, will be able to increase their profits during periods of rising prices. Moreover, the industry’s concentration is likely to continue to rise, resulting in a clearer picture of the long-term development trajectory for these leading enterprises.