Any price inflation that is not based on deliveries from Hong Kong is nothing but fraud

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Any attempt to drive up prices without the premise of lowering them based on stock levels is nothing but fraud. Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2019-09-05 Clicks: 7 If people no longer trust empiricism, then we can do some calculations again. In the first half of the year, the production of domestic potassium chloride was around 2.9–3 million tons. Normally, production in the second half of the year is slightly higher than that in the first half, so we estimate the annual production to be 6–6.5 million tons. The amount of potassium chloride imported from January to July, as recorded by the customs, minus the amount exported amounts to 6.17 million tons. Adding to this the at least 2 million tons of inventory remaining from the end of last year, it can be estimated that the total available supply of potassium chloride is around 14.5 million tons. According to data from Zhongfei Net, China’s apparent consumption of potassium chloride in 2018 was 14.6 million tons. At present, the total stock in Hong Kong exceeds 3.1 million tons, which is 1 million tons more than at the beginning of the year. What does this mean? I believe there’s no need for me to explain further 　　Of course, considering issues such as fertilizer safety, there should be at least 2 million tons of potassium chloride in stock by the end of each year. If demand does not decrease significantly this year, then it is reasonable to assume that we will need to import another 2 million tons of potassium chloride during these five months from August to December. Furthermore, the estimate of domestic potassium chloride production for the second half of the year in the aforementioned calculations could also change, as there have been too many negative news stories involving many large companies these days; it is not impossible that production might decline if things go wrong. But who can be sure about such things from so long ago? At least ships are still arriving for now, and the bosses say they’ll push production levels up significantly! So when facing the seller’s unfair tactics, it’s always wise to be cautious and protect one’s interests first. Wait until the inventory levels in the port decrease before considering whether it’s necessary to reevaluate the market situation – there will still be time then! 　　(Adu)