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On the first day of the new year, what surprises has compound fertilizer brought? Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network. Date: 2020-01-02. Clicks: 26. New Year’s Day, which is January 1st on the Gregorian calendar, is what is commonly referred to as the “New Year” in most parts of the world. Yuan means “beginning”; the start of any number is called “yuan”” ； Dàn refers to “day”” ； “\"New Year’s Day\" means \"the first day.\" On the first day of the new year, various industries are striving to shed their old identities and embrace a new outlook. But what is the situation in the fertilizer market, which has been subject to high expectations? What other surprises are there? At present, the overall fertilizer market is in the most critical phase of winter stockpiling. With companies announcing their prices and discount policies for winter stockpiling, it seems that the trend regarding compound fertilizers for this period has already been determined. Compared to the same period last year, the prices in most regions have dropped by more than 200 yuan per ton; demand is also very low, and the lagging nature of the market is particularly evident. Despite the unfavorable market conditions, the future of compound fertilizers remains highly promising. So, what surprises might it bring to people? Firstly, short-term prices are expected to stabilize. Currently, the prevailing prices of compound fertilizers are indeed low; in some areas, the factory prices of general-purpose fertilizers are even close to the cost level. It is therefore unlikely that there will be further significant price cuts. Given the current trend in the prices of raw materials used for compound fertilizers, it is likely that **will play a dominant role in the future. The urea market is moving in a volatile manner; minor fluctuations in prices in certain regions have little impact. Coupled with recent tender activities in India, prices are likely to remain stable for now ； The phosphate fertilizer market remains weak; trading was sluggish ahead of the holiday, and it makes little sense for companies to adjust their prices ； With sluggish domestic demand and uncertain international market trends, there is little chance of significant movement in the potash market. Secondly, short-term demand is expected to remain stable. As the final sprint phase before the Spring Festival, any remaining demand in key winter-stocking regions such as the Central Plains and Northeast China may gradually materialize. Although there will be ample time for operations after the holiday, given the volatile market conditions, end-users will place supplementary orders in a timely manner and in appropriate quantities. Given the weak winter storage market this year, compound fertilizer manufacturers are facing difficulties in setting prices; at the initial stage, interest-only payments were offered, which was not well received by downstream customers. To date, the inventory levels at some end-users are less than half of those in the same period last year. There is therefore likely significant remaining demand, and if this demand is effectively released before the Spring Festival, it will directly boost activity in the current winter storage market for compound fertilizers. Finally, short-term supply is expected to remain stable. As of last weekend, the overall operational rate of large-scale compound fertilizer manufacturers across the country was around 45%, remaining roughly the same as at the beginning of December. Since the start of the winter storage market, the operation levels of compound fertilizer manufacturers have shown a slow upward trend; although the increase is not significant, the overall trend is positive. As winter sets in, the environmental protection situation during the heating season remains rather severe in northern regions. This poses a major challenge to the normal operations of fertilizer enterprises. Under the guidance of the policy prohibiting blanket measures, no collective production halts or rectification actions should be taken against enterprises that comply with ecological and environmental protection requirements. Consequently, phenomena such as shortages of goods leading to price hikes, or enterprises taking advantage of such situations for speculative purposes, will occur very rarely. In summary, as we enter the new year, the market for compound fertilizers seems set to show some improvement. With relatively stable conditions in terms of raw materials and supply and demand, the extent of price changes for compound fertilizers in the future will be limited. There will also be a slight increase in demand from end-users ahead of the Spring Festival. However, the overall fertilizer market remains weak, and market trends before the festival are likely to remain stable. (Feng Hongyang)