Thread Content
Nitrogen fertilizer is an important material foundation for ensuring food security. Will the ongoing geopolitical conflicts have an impact on the supply of nitrogen fertilizers for spring plowing? What will be the trend of the nitrogen fertilizer market throughout the year? \"It is expected that there will be an adequate supply of nitrogen fertilizer resources during this year’s spring plowing period, so there will be no concerns regarding its supply throughout the year.\" If raw material prices remain stable, urea prices will tend to stay stable during the spring plowing season. ”At the 2026 National Spring Nitrogen Fertilizer Market Situation Analysis Conference held in Wuhan from March 11 to 12, Gu Zongqin, president of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, made the above assessment. On the supply side, 2026 will remain a period of concentrated new projects in the nitrogen fertilizer industry. According to the association’s projections, the urea supply capacity will increase to 77.5 million tons per year, while urea production will reach a new high of 76.5 million tons per year. According to the association’s estimates, urea production in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 is expected to amount to 37.475 million tons in terms of physical volume, an increase of 2.436 million tons compared with the same period the previous year. On the demand side, according to estimates by the agricultural department, the national demand for agricultural nitrogen fertilizers in 2026 will be 25.718 million tons. Among them, the demand for nitrogen fertilizer during the spring plowing period is 10.269 million tons, remaining roughly the same as last year. The demand for urea in non-agricultural sectors is expected to be around 23 million tons in 2026, while the demand in agricultural sectors is expected to be around 43 million tons; thus, the total demand for urea will be around 66 million tons. Regarding raw materials, according to predictions by the China Coal Association, the supply and demand in China’s coal market is expected to shift from a relaxed state to a more balanced one by 2026, with prices remaining stable within a reasonable range. “Affected by international geopolitics, there will be significant uncertainty regarding natural gas supply and prices in 2026. ”Xu Bo, deputy general manager of Beijing Shichuang Energy Consulting Company, believes that both a decline in supply and rising prices will pose challenges to the production of ammonia fertilizers in China, and close attention is needed. Wei Yong, director of the Information and Market Department at the Nitrogen Fertilizer Association, analyzed that overall, companies in this industry have a stronger awareness of ensuring supply, leading to an increase in nitrogen fertilizer production, which means there will be sufficient fertilizer available for this year’s spring plowing. As the relaxed supply of raw materials is gradually being resolved, the production cost of nitrogen fertilizers may rise. If domestic and international markets are properly regulated, domestic urea prices are expected to remain at a relatively reasonable level with reduced price fluctuations. Regarding the key tasks for the nitrogen fertilizer industry in 2026, Gu Zongqin pointed out that it is necessary to carry out solid work in four areas. First, it is necessary to ensure the completion of spring plowing and the annual nitrogen fertilizer production targets. Firms with sufficient gas resources should promptly sign natural gas purchase and sale contracts with gas supply companies in accordance with the minimum production targets, to ensure that the annual production goals as well as those for the spring planting season are met. Coal-focused enterprises should take advantage of the currently favorable conditions in the coal market to enter long-term supply agreements with large coal companies, in order to ensure a stable supply of coal for nitrogen fertilizer production. Second, increase the proportion of high-efficiency fertilizer products. Enterprises should actively develop high-efficiency fertilizers such as value-added urea, slow- and controlled-release fertilizers, stable fertilizers, and water-soluble fertilizers, while strengthening agrochemical services. Third, ensure stable market prices for nitrogen fertilizers during spring plowing and throughout the year. Key fertilizer supply guarantee enterprises must sell at prices not exceeding the recommended rates, and the prices submitted to the association must be accurate and truthful; any form of hidden price increase is strictly prohibited. Fourth, arrange exports in a timely and appropriate manner. It is necessary to further improve the self-regulation mechanism for urea exports, strengthen analysis of domestic and international markets, formulate export plans scientifically, and enhance the quality of exports. At the meeting, experts from the industry and corporate representatives presented technologies related to high-efficiency fertilizers as well as experiences in their promotion, and analyzed the international and domestic regional nitrogen fertilizer markets.