A surge of 9.54% in just one week! The shortage in methanol supply triggers market volatility

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A surge of 9.54% in just one week! The shortage in methanol supply drives market volatility 2026-04-05 03:11·Sina Finance Source: Market Information (Source: CCM) I. Key data overview – Price: MA2605 futures rose by **+9.54% on a weekly basis**, reaching a high of 3,498 yuan per ton during the week, with a closing price of 3,364 yuan per ton ； The current price in Jiangsu is 3,110–3,590 yuan per ton, while in Guangdong it is 3,150–3,630 yuan per ton ； On the northern route in Ordos, the mainland, the price ranges from 2,485 to 2,665 yuan per ton. In terms of production capacity: the overall methanol production rate across the country is 78.56% (a decrease of 0.15 percentage points on a weekly basis); some plants in the domestic regions are under maintenance, resulting in tight supply conditions. As for inventory levels: port inventories amount to 826,800 tons (a decrease of 114,500 tons compared to the previous period). Inventories are decreasing in both East China and South China, with only 47,500 tons of methanol available on foreign ships. II. Analysis of supply, demand, production capacity, and inventory Levels: On the supply side, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, coupled with force majeure issues at Saudi Arabian plants, have led to a sharp drop in expected imports in April (around 600,000 tons) ； Maintenance work is underway at facilities in Jiu Tai Tuo County and other areas within the country; supply of spot goods in these regions is tight, leading to strong willingness to maintain high prices. On the demand side, the Shenghong facility in the MTO segment has resumed operations, resulting in an increase in demand ； Traditional downstream industries are seeing a recovery in operations, but purchases are cautious due to high prices; orders are mainly for essential goods in small quantities. In terms of inventory: ports continue to see significant reductions in inventory levels, while manufacturers and traders have low inventory levels, resulting in no pressure to build up inventory levels, which supports strong spot prices. III. Analysis of the impact along the industry chain: Upstream: Fluctuations in crude oil prices and high coal costs, coupled with reduced supply from the Middle East, create strong support from both cost and supply factors. Downstream: Rising demand from MTOs supports demand for essential goods, but traditional downstream industries are affected by high prices, leading to limited demand growth and intensified market competition. Overall: Reduced supply, cost support, and declining inventory levels at ports all contribute to price increases during the week ； In the second half of the week, as geopolitical tensions ease, prices will fluctuate within a wide range. IV. Outlook for the future: In the short term, methanol prices are expected to fluctuate widely but remain on an upward trend; key factors to watch include developments in the Middle East, trends in crude oil prices, and the pace of product clearance at ports ； The price is expected to range between 3,200 and 3,500 yuan per ton; a breakthrough will require a substantial recovery in demand.