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Recently, domestic sulfur market prices have continued to rise, drawing widespread attention within the industry. As of December 4, the mainstream transaction price in China has surpassed the 4,000 yuan mark per ton; the price at China’s major ports has reached 4,110 yuan, representing a 17% increase on a month-on-month basis. The increase for the year so far is over 160%, marking a new high in nearly a decade. Shao Huiwen, a veteran market commentator, said that the extremely rapid rise in the sulfur market this year is mainly driven by factors such as tightening international supply, growing demand from downstream industries, and market sentiment. Given the current balance between supply and demand, it is expected that the market will remain in a state of high-level consolidation in the short term. Industry experts suggest that while focusing on market opportunities, it is necessary to pay close attention to potential risks in order to maintain the stability of the industrial and supply chains. Tightening supply in the external market drives up prices. Industry experts generally believe that the strong performance of sulfur in the international market has been the main factor behind the rise in domestic sulfur prices over the past few months. “Affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, sulfur exports from Russia and Kazakhstan have declined significantly, while downstream demand, represented by wet-process nickel smelting in Indonesia, has grown rapidly, leading to a sharp rise in sulfur prices. ”Liao Kangcheng, secretary-general of the China Sulfur Industry Association, analyzed that before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia’s sulfur exports were around 2 million tons, before dropping to 1 million tons ； Entering 2025, its export volume has declined rapidly due to frequent attacks on its oil refining plants, with annual exports expected to amount to only 200,000 tons. Kazakhstan’s sulfur exports are also declining; they reached 4.85 million tons in 2024, with an estimated 4.15 million tons in 2025. The increase in exports was mainly due to the utilization of existing stockpiles, and as these stockpiles continue to decrease, sulfur exports are expected to fall to 3.45 million tons by 2026. Li Peixin, the procurement director at Jiangsu Dipu Technology Co., Ltd., shares the same view. Geopolitics is one of the key factors affecting international markets; due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, refinery operations in Russia have been unstable, and exports there have been declining since 2023. In November of this year, an export ban was imposed until the end of the year, further restricting global supply. As Indonesia’s hydrometallurgical projects have become the main source of growth this year, more supply is directed to the Indonesian market, which has strong purchasing power, thereby squeezing the quota availability for traditional importing countries. Against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical conflicts, the market saw the release of Qatar Energy’s sulfur contract prices for December, which rose by $95 compared to the previous month, reaching $495 (FOB). Based on this calculation, the CIF price of sulfur at ports along China’s Yangtze River and in the north has risen to $520–$521. Compared with current spot market prices, the inversion of import costs has intensified, prompting domestic traders and downstream enterprises to restock, which drove port prices up again in December. Downstream demand provides solid support. A relevant official from the Henan Petrochemical Association said that the rebound in the capacity utilization rate of the phosphate fertilizer industry has provided corresponding support for sulfur demand. Ammonium monophosphate and ammonium diphosphate have maintained a relatively high operating rate since the second half of this year. Maintenance companies are gradually resuming production, and the demand for winter fertilizers is slowly increasing; as a result, the operating rate of the phosphate fertilizer industry is likely to rise further, which in turn will drive a steady demand for sulfur as a raw material. “As the most important downstream product of sulfur, the firm prices of international phosphate and compound fertilizers have helped support the rise in sulfur prices. ”Liao Kangcheng said that since the beginning of this year, international prices for phosphate fertilizers have been rising steadily. Taking the export price of diammonium phosphate in China as an example, it was 737 dollars (FOB) at the beginning of November, up by 120 dollars from the start of the year and by 125 dollars compared to the same period last year. Liao Kangcheng said that the development of nickel smelting in Indonesia and the phosphorus chemical industry in China has also driven a rapid increase in demand for sulfur. By the end of 2024, Indonesia’s operational wet-process nickel production capacity would total 333,200 tons, with an additional 93,000 tons of capacity coming online ； The capacity under construction from 2025 to 2027 will total 432,000 tons. Based on the calculation that 8 to 12 tons of sulfur are required per ton of nickel, the aforementioned capacity under construction will result in an increase in sulfur demand of around 5 million tons once it comes online. In terms of our country’s phosphate chemical industry, the demand for sulfur resources in the phosphate fertilizer sector increased by about 530,000 tons in the first eight months of 2025; if this growth rate is maintained, an additional approximately 800,000 tons of sulfur resources will be needed for the whole year. According to a manager at a fertilizer company in Henan, the new energy sector is the fastest-growing segment of the sulfur market. In 2024, sulfur accounted for 5% of the demand in this sector, and it is expected to rise to 8% by 2025. China’s lithium iron phosphate industry chain has driven a 36% increase in the production of industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate, with this growth trend continuing. The stable demand in other industrial sectors is also a factor supporting the sulfur market; for example, industries such as titanium dioxide and caprolactam account for 6% to 7% of the total demand for sulfur. Rising bullish sentiment in the market increases volatility. Shao Huiwen said that this year, traders’ participation in the sulfur market has been significantly higher than in previous years, which is another factor contributing to the rapid rise in prices. Through consultations with various traders, it was found that even though sulfur market prices are at historically high levels, over 70% of the traders remain optimistic about market conditions in December. The head of a fertilizer trading company in Nanjing, Jiangsu, believes that the recovery of sulfur supply from key supplying countries is slow, international spot supplies remain tight, and there is a possibility that prices on the international market will continue to rise. Domestic importers are under increasing pressure due to higher costs associated with shipments arriving at port, and the amount of supply arriving still falls short of demand. This expectation further strengthened the market’s reluctance to sell and bullish sentiment, driving spot prices upward steadily. According to a trader in Shandong, it is difficult for those holding inventory to restock at low prices at this stage; as a result, they have no desire to significantly adjust their shipment rates, and there remains a shortage of goods available for circulation in the market. This stalemate scenario may well become the norm in the market in the near term, increasing the likelihood of prices entering a range of high levels. Industry experts warn that, given the current high prices in the market, certain uncertainties and risks arise that need to be addressed and avoided. The main risk factors to watch out for include a cooling down in geopolitical tensions, demand falling short of expectations, changes in alternative manufacturing processes, and traders closing their positions to realize profits.