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As the year comes to an end, the outlook for the global oil market in 2026 has become a focus of attention for the financial sector and the energy industry. According to industry analyses and market trend forecasts, influenced by various factors such as ongoing geopolitical disruptions and subtle changes in the supply-demand balance, international oil prices are likely to show a pattern of first falling and then rising in 2026. They may drop below $50 at the beginning of the year, before rebounding to above $70 by the end of the year. Geopolitical conflicts continue to cause disruptions, with underlying risks of supply constraints emerging. At present, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the situation in the Middle East remain two major geopolitical hotspots showing no signs of resolution, and they constitute key factors affecting the stability of oil supplies. There were views in the market predicting that both conflicts might conclude by 2026, thereby releasing more energy supplies and suppressing oil prices, but most analysts are cautious about this. The industry suggests that the conflict is likely to persist for a long time; although it may shift from an intense war to a low-intensity confrontation, the threats to the security of oil transportation routes and to the expansion of regional production capacity will continue. Another key supply variable comes from the production capacity decisions of the stone** industry itself. Data shows that current executives in the oil industry generally expect the market to remain relatively sluggish in 2026 with oil prices staying low, but this expectation has instead raised concerns in the market. From a trading perspective, the predictions of oil executives often serve as inverse indicators. If companies reduce their investment in capacity expansion due to pessimistic views on prices, global oil supply could face tighter conditions than expected. As of December 19, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures (WTI) for delivery in January 2026 was $56.15, representing a cumulative decline of 20.89% since the beginning of the year. The continued low levels of oil prices may further hinder the development of new production capacity. Demand remains stable with support, with Chinese and U.S. markets serving as key pillars. The stability in demand provides significant support for oil prices. Although the U.S. economy is showing signs of weakness – inflation has not yet fully subsided and the latest unemployment rate has reached a new high since the pandemic – various positive factors will mitigate the impact of an economic downturn on oil demand. For example, low oil prices alone help to alleviate inflationary pressures; the government’s cautious tariff policies, along with the Federal Reserve’s previous interest rate cuts, will also provide some stimulus to the economy, thereby supporting demand for energy consumption. As the world’s most important oil-consuming market, China’s performance plays a key role in shaping global demand patterns. The actual data on China’s oil demand demonstrate strong resilience: despite temporary challenges in the consumption and real estate sectors, the industrial sector, which is the main driver of oil demand, has continued to operate steadily, providing a solid foundation for maintaining stable crude oil demand. Price trend: decline first, then rise – market sentiment is key in the short term. Taking into account factors on both the supply and demand sides, the industry offers a clear forecast for crude oil prices: at the beginning of 2026, the current pessimistic mood in the market will persist, and oil prices may remain weak, even falling below the $50 mark. However, as geopolitical risks continue to escalate, supply constraints become more apparent, and demand starts to recover steadily, oil prices will gradually rise, with the increase potentially exceeding expectations; it is estimated that the closing price by the end of the year will exceed $70. For market participants, analysts suggest that when trading oil in 2026, three key factors should be given close attention: first, the real-time developments in geopolitical situations such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the situation in the Middle East; second, the economic data from the two major economies, China and the United States, particularly how data on China’s industry and the U.S. employment and inflation levels affect demand; third, supply-side indicators such as investments in oil production capacity and the implementation of OPEC+’s production cut agreements. At the same time, maintaining trading discipline, setting reasonable stop-loss levels, and avoiding being influenced by short-term market sentiment remain key strategies for navigating the volatility in the oil market in 2026. The industry emphasizes that although the oil market will still face many uncertainties by 2026, the structural changes in supply and demand are gradually becoming clearer. The interaction between geopolitics and industry capacity decisions will determine price trends, and investors need to find a balance between risk assessment and opportunity identification.